Our racing expert previews the big race at Kempton on Boxing Day.
Despite the likelihood of some big names being missing, this year’s renewal of the traditional 3m Grade 1 Christmas showpiece still looks to be a classy and intriguing race on paper. To all intents and purposes, the race seems to revolve around MIGHT BITE who has improved out of all recognition ever since taken a bone-crunching fall when well clear in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at the corresponding meeting last year. Since that untimely exit (would have clocked faster time than the King George had he stood on his feet), the son of Scorpion has been unbeaten in four subsequent outings and with two of those victories coming in Grade 1 company at Cheltenham and Aintree, he’s worked his way to the towards the top of the tree in his division and at time of writing is currently second favourite to land the Gold Cup in March. Whether he’ll be suited by 3m 2f around Cheltenham is a moot point given his exuberant style of racing, but there’s no question Nicky Henderson’s inmate is tailor made for this sharper examination and only really testing ground would prevent him serving up a treat on Boxing Day.
One who will be praying for rain in a week’s time is BRISTOL DE MAI, who once again confirmed his liking for a flat track when totally dominating the Betfair Chase on his latest start. Much more settled in his races now than before, the Saddler Maker gelding seems to be maturing all the time and even though he’s probably not going to be allowed to dictate matters as he likes, he’s dangerous to rule out given his current wellbeing.
The one who arrives at the race under a slight cloud is last year’s winner, THISTLECRACK, and while it would dangerous to right him off completely, there has to be a certain amount of guesswork involved if you are to side with Colin Tizzard’s charge. Despite travelling well for a long way on his comeback race over hurdles at Newbury at the beginning of the month, he ultimately found little for pressure, and whether that was down to lack of match fitness (highly unlikely given his fragility) or the first real signs of decay is the 64 thousand dollar question.
Although yet to be confirmed, it might well be that the Dorset handler’s best chance stems from FOX NORTON, who has a similar profile to Sizing John before he improved markedly for a step up in trip. The way he finishes off his races over 2m indicates he’s crying out for further nowadays and there’s no doubt he has the class to figure if his stamina does hold out.
WHISPER completes a strong a hand for Nicky Henderson, but one gets the impression the Seven Barrows handler has been rather forced to come here due to the treatment dished out by the handicapper following his brave performance under a big weight in the Ladbroke Chase. That said, he’s proven around the track with a victory over the very smart Clan Des Obeaux and his overall consistency entitles him to respect.
DISKO adds further intrigue to the race being a proven Grade 1 winner who still appears to be on the upgrade, but whether Nicky Henderson sees it that way given he has the potential to knock Might Bite out of his rhythm at the head of affairs is another matter. Either way, Noel Meade’s inmate deserves his place in the line-up on merit and it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world to see him go well at a big price.
Of the rest, Top Notch is an unlikely starter given how well he’s been performing over his optimum 2m 4f trip, and the same comments applies to Djakadam who was a shade disappointing behind Sizing John on his seasonal return. Road to Respect is likely to stay on home soil for the Grade 1 at Leopardstown (formerly the Lexus), while the likes of Tea For Two, God’s Own and Double Shuffle don’t look good enough.
