Our racing tipster picks out two value bets for the Triumph Hurdle.
So far, Apples Shakira has lay down a pretty stiff marker in this division with three straight wins since landing on these shores, and with two of those impressive performances coming over the C&D of the Triumph Hurdle itself, she will have an advantage of sorts when it comes to the big day in March. On her latest success at Prestbury Park on trials day, she proved that when it comes to a battle, she has the right frame of mind to match her undoubted ability and with connections indicating afterwards that she will be even better on decent Spring ground, it’s hard to argue that she doesn’t deserve to be favourite.
On the other side of the coin, however, one could argue that she hasn’t beaten anything of any great magnitude as of yet, and there were one or two anxious moments before she finally got the better of Look My Way on her latest start. Either way, Nicky Henderson’s filly still makes precious little appeal at her current odds and just as was the case with Defi Du Seuil last year – who had a very similar profile in the build up to the race – she is likely to start bigger on the day.
One could argue that stable mate WE HAVE A DREAM (best price 8-1) has achieved more having already landed a Grade 1 prize courtesy of his game effort in the Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow and anyone thinking that this season’s renewal at the Welsh venue bares no relevance to Cheltenham, needs to re-examine their views. Run at a strong pace given the testing conditions, the son of Martaline shown terrific spirit to finally wear down the ultra-game Sussex Ranger and given that the runner-up had clocked a big speed figure when winning impressively at Sandown the time before, he was clearly beating a horse of some substance.
Prior to that tenacious display, he’d also proven himself on a much quicker surface by taking The Grade 2 Summit Juvenile Hurdle in pretty decisive fashion, and with his time figures stacking up to be in a similar ball park to those posted by Apples Shakira, his presence come the last day of the Festival would give the Seven Barrows team a very strong hand in this season’s four-year-old decider.
As is often the case, The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is likely to provide an invaluable piece to the jigsaw puzzle and even though a defeat in the big Grade 1 at the Leopardstown Dublin Festival wouldn’t exactly be curtains granted conditions are likely to be different at Cheltenham (Tiger Roll got beat several years ago and went on to win a month later), victory would at least secure the winner as the leading Irish contender with just over a month to go (no other significant trials left in the Emerald Ilse).
The standard bearer over the other side of the Irish Sea has been Espoir D’Allen and while he’s looked supremely impressive on at least three of his four victories (travels strongly through his races), he’s yet to post a speed figure of any great significance. Indeed, his latest success at Leopardstown over the Christmas period was achieved in a very slow time for the grade and he might have had plenty more to think about if the inexperienced, Farclas, had more tactical nous than he did on the day.
Likely to be favourite for his final trial race on February 3, he may not get things entirely his own way as he takes on STORMY IRELAND (best price 10-1), who ran out an extremely impressive and wide-margin winner of her first outing since leaving her French base. Making her debut for Willie Mullins in what looked an ordinary maiden hurdle on paper beforehand, the daughter of Motivator made her intentions clear right from the start, and despite racing a little keenly in the early stages, she routed her opponents to the tune of 54 lengths – which takes some doing in any race.
Moreover, her time figure she clocked was seriously impressive for a juvenile hurdler having only her third career start, and given that she seemed to be travelling just as strongly at the finish than she was when she passed the stands for the first time, it’s easy to upgrade the effort and suggest she could have gone even quicker. Either way, this fast, fluent jumper, who has already displayed she has a big engine, will set a ferocious target for her opponents at the Dublin track this weekend, and if she comes through her big test with flying colours, she has the scope to make a major impact in the Triumph Hurdle betting.
