Our racing tipster previews the Lincoln at Doncaster this weekend and provides his best tip for the race.
The old adage of “you need to be a Group horse to win the Lincoln” has a certain amount of truth attached, but to be fair, nowadays most big-field Saturday handicaps of this nature you have to be rated at least 100 to even get a run, so it’s probably not as relevant as it once was.
The one thing we can say is the draw and the ground are likely to have a significant bearing on the result and given that it’s almost certain to be soft, the list of obvious candidates can be whittled down accordingly.
Lord Glitters is arguably the most talented of those still entered, but with David O’Meara stressing that he doesn’t want to ‘bottom’ his horse first time up on testing ground and the fact he has an entry and might run in the listed race over a mile instead, offers plenty of cause for concern from an ante-post perspective.
Having loads of quality handicap form on soft ground last year and still being open to possible improvement, Fire Brigade is sure to be a popular choice with many punters – especially as Ryan Moore has been booked to do duty in the saddle.
However, as is often the case which a horse of this nature, if everyone can see it, the value has long since disappeared and he makes little appeal at his current 7-1 quotes.
If there is one who has flown under the radar in the build up to the race despite his obvious credentials its BALLARD DOWN (best price 25-1) and he’s worth a decent interest at his current price with seemingly plenty in his favour. A largely consistent horse throughout his 10-race career, William Knight’s inmate showed steady improvement on the all-weather last season until really hitting the ball out of the park on the numbers at Newmarket when last seen and it’s that run which gives him a gilt-edged chance if he can repeat the performance in this prestigious prize.
Held up just behind the speed at HQ, the son of Canford Cliffs quickened up in the style of a horse way beyond his rating at the time and in posting by far and away the best furlong-per-furlong time and closing sectionals on the seven-race card, he left the impression that he could be a pattern horse in-waiting.
Looking at those he beat that afternoon, it’s clear he ran to a very high standard. The runner-up, Master Of The World, went on to land the Betfred Mile at Goodwood and has subsequently been raised to a mark of 108 following his recent Group 3 Winter Derby exploits.
Third-placed Zwayyan went on to land a competitive handicap at Ascot, while well-beaten Raising Sand duplicated a similar feat at the Berkshire track with a smooth success on Shergar Cup day.
Entered up in the Cambridgeshire as his final target towards the backend of last season, he failed to make the gig due to a setback, but the reports are that he’s very much back in full working order and ready to carry on where he left off last campaign (goes well fresh).
Given that the six-year-old seemed to really thrive on a strong-run straight mile on soft ground 245-days, hope is high that under similar conditions this weekend he can be seen to best effect.
Presumably, the visor, which seemed to have transformed him of late will be on again and with Harry Bentley booked to do the steering (2-3 on the horse), all he needs is a decent draw on the day next to the pace and should easily be capable of outrunning his current quotes of 25-1.
