Andy Holding's Saturday Racing Tips

FIRST ELEVEN (best price 11-10) was a well-documented unlucky loser at the Royal meeting and having gained compensation over today’s C&D last time out, John Gosden’s improving colt is fancied to take the step into pattern company in his stride. Disappointing on his next outing at Newmarket, hope was high that on returning to the scene of his unfortunate third-place finish in the King George Handicap it would rekindle the flame and that’s how it turned out as he scored with a bit to spare over the well-fancied Melrose hero, Ghostwatch. The form of that race now looks even stronger given what the runner-up achieved here yesterday and with the prospect of even more to come from this imposing son of Frankel, he rates a strong choice to justify his position at the head of the market. Although in an ideal world he could do with the ground staying on the fast side, He has run well under testing conditions so he should be fine even if the predicted rain gets into the surface come race time.

Some of the heavy-hitters have fallen by the wayside through one thing or another, so in a renewal probably not as strong as in years gone by, RATHBONE (NAP) (best price 10-1) makes plenty of appeal despite having not won a race so far to date. Placed in his first three starts, Kevin Ryan’s colt was fancied in many quarters to go well in the big 6f nursery at York back in August and although he rather annoyingly managed to finish second for the third time in a row, he came out of the race with a massive amount of credit. Once again, well backed at bigger odds in a valuable sales race at Doncaster last time out, the son of Foxwedge would have finished a good deal closer had he been able to get some early cover and then not end up challenging in the worst part of the track late on, but now drawn smack bang down the middle (often the place to be here) and with conditions absolutely ideal, he looks primed to go very close. Of the rest, Strict Tempo comes into the equation off the back of her unlucky runner-up spot in a competitive fillies’ handicap at Doncaster’s Leger meeting and she is also drawn down the middle.

The key form guide for this race may turn out to be the Hopeful Stakes at Newmarket and although Limato ran out a ready winner on the day, there’s more than half a chance that PROJECTION (best price 4-1) might get revenge now racing back at a track that has served him well in the past. Undone by the way the race panned out and the loose ground that day, Roger Charlton’s five-year-old still came out of the contest with great credit with an honourable third-place finish and that was on the back of another excellent effort when runner-up to the smart Yafta in the Hackwood Stakes at Newbury. Prior to that, the son of Acclamation had posted one of his career-best performances when a close-up fifth in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee over today’s C&D and a repeat of that level of form should see him go very close on his return visit here this afternoon.

Having gone pillar-to-post when landing the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown last time out, Laurens will probably be asked to try and replicate the feat back at the scene of her narrow defeat in the Guineas earlier in the campaign, but this will be no cakewalk and of those lurking in the bushes to strike should the favourite fail is I CAN FLY (best price 12-1). Bitterly disappointing in the Guineas and Oaks when clearly not right earlier in the season, the daughter of Fastnet Rock has looked a totally different horse since leaving the summer months behind and her latest effort in the Boomerang Stakes at Leopardstown on Champions weekend definitely puts her in with a sporting chance of upsetting the applecart if she’s in the same sort of shape 21 days on. Not only was her overall time figure better than Laurens over the same C&D, Aidan O’Brien’s filly also posted impressive backend sectionals compared to the Group 1 in coming from last to first to claim the spoils. Despite the jockey arrangements suggesting she’s the second string of the Ballydoyle raiders, the numbers suggest otherwise and it would be disappointing if she’s not in the mix.

As competitive as ever and with most of the runners having run against one another at some stage in the past, it’ll probably boil down to track position and who fancies it most on the day. David Elsworth has to be commended with the way he’s handled Ripp Orf all season and even though the four-year-old has hardly put a foot wrong at this track all season, the fact that he’s been on the go since March and has a potentially tricky draw to overcome today slightly tempers enthusiasm. Flaming Spear is arguably the most talented of the entire field but he might not be fully effective on quicker ground (rain forecast after lunchtime), so with that in mind, CAPE BYRON (best price 6-1) receives the vote on account of his two excellent performances behind the aforementioned pair in recent times. Runner-up behind the latter two starts ago at Goodwood, Roger Varian’s four-year-old travelled as well as anything on his latest outing over today’s C&D, but as it turned out, he was drawn on the wrong side of the track and ended up getting dive-bombed by his old rival close home. Nicely drawn today right down the middle, David Egan has the ideal opportunity to bury his mount in behind the speed – likely to be set by stable mates Lake Volta (drawn 1) and Vale Of Kent (11) – and use his mount’s smart turn of foot to pounce late.

There’s no doubt Balko Des Flos is a worthy favourite based on his Ryanair victory, but with a long season ahead and lack of match fitness a slight issue, he’s passed over in favour of BALLYOISIN (best price 11-4), who has no such worries on that score. Presumably just having a pipe-opener for this contest at Listowel last time out, Enda Bolger’s gelding proved that a return to hurdles and the minimum trip was no barrier as he stayed on strongly to fend off the well-fancied Shanning in a hugely competitive affair at the Co Kerry venue. Having begun last season over fences with a convincing display under top weight in a well-run handicap at Cork, the son of Presenting rounded off the campaign in fine heart with easy wins at Killarney and Punchestown respectively and with all his best form coming over 2m 4f on good ground, a positive show looks pretty much guaranteed from this progressive, and bold-jumping young chaser