Andy Holding's Saturday Racing Tips

As of yet, there’s been no real pecking order established in this juvenile category on either side of the Irish Sea, so there’s a good chance for one of this field to put some sort of marker down for the Triumph running over the same C&D they encounter in March. Having finished runner-up in the Grade 1 Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow last time out, it makes perfect sense to see Adjali head the market, but in the same breath he looks poor value up against several with the potential for further progression. Of those, FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES (best price 13-2) has plenty of experience and he appeals as one that could easily step up to the plate. Sent over the Channel to run in the care of Joseph O’Brien, the son of Kapgarde made an instant impression for new connections by scoring at Cork and with the time figure suggesting it was a pretty decent performance, it’s easy to see why he’s been pitched into Graded company after that victory over the older horses. The third horse home that afternoon, Discordantly, has gone on to advertise the form subsequently and with the same stable well stocked up with some smart four-year-olds, such as ante-post Triumph favourite, Sir Erec, and Band Of Outlaws (Fred Winter possible), you’d like to think that the Co Kilkenny handler knows the price of fish when it comes to sending the right horses over the Irish Sea.

A much-depleted field considering there were 26 entered at the five-day stage, but it’s still competitive enough, and both FIRST DRIFT (best price 16-1) and HIGHWAY ONE O ONE (best price 9-1) appear to have better credentials than the market suggests.

The former, a useful novice hurdler last season, has seemingly improved even further since switching to fences and his last two performances have very much backed up that view. A game winner at Hereford in a decent time figure when adopting his usual front-running role, the eight-year-old looked likely to pull off a similar feat back at the same track last time out only for the strong-staying Go Long to come along and pick his pocket late on. He did, however, give absolutely everything to the cause and that never-say-die attitude will hopefully count for plenty at business end.

The latter seems an even more absurd price considering the company he’s been keeping so far this season and there even grounds to suggest he should be close to favourite based on his last two performances. Although beaten 14 lengths by the top-class Dynamite Dollars in a very strongly-run Henry VIII Novices Chase at Sandown two starts ago, Chris Gordon’s gelding impressed by how his jumping stood the test despite the field trapping along at a faster pace than the mighty Altior over the same C&D. Again put firmly in his place by Paul Nicholls’ underrated chaser at Kempton last time out, today’s opposition clearly offers the seven-year-old a more realistic playing field and even though he’s yet tackle today’s trip under rules, his run style and background of point-to-points suggest that he could improve for a step up to 2m 4f.

ELEGANT ESCAPE (best price 11-4) had a hard race when landing the Welsh National 30 days ago, but if any horse can recover in time its Colin Tizzard’s granite-tough seven-year-old, and he’s fancied to continue his progression towards the Gold Cup in March in the last recognised trial on these shores. One of last season’s top novices, the son of Dubai Destination had the Ladbroke Chase as his first main target of the campaign, and although he came up just short against his stable mate Sizing Tennessee, it still had to go down as another smart effort from the likable gelding. Once again very heavily backed for his latest assignment, he exhibited typical battle qualities to outstay his 19 rivals at the Welsh venue and with doubts about several of his main opponents regarding their suitability to today’s trip, he rates a confident choice to grind out another result.

Other than one or two Irish competitors, this is virtually a carbon copy of the field likely to be here in March for the Stayers Hurdle, so we should get some sort of an idea of how things stand in this division after today. Without doubt, Paisley Park sets the standard so far this season and providing he can erase the memory of one of his only poor runs in his life in the Albert Bartlett last season, Emma Lavelle’s gelding is probably the one to beat on paper. Midnight Shadow is progressing at a rapid rate of knots and he could be a big player if he stays, while the veterans, Unowhatimeanharry and Cheltenham specialist Wholestone in particular (form figures at the track of 121131232), can never be totally left out of calculations. However, if there is to be a late contender parachuting in from left-field, it could well turn out to be BLACK OP (best price 9-2) and he rates the most interesting of prospects back over hurdles.

Things haven’t quite worked out as anticipated for the eight-year-old over fences this season, but with connections deciding to shelve that idea for the time being and revert back to hurdles, Tom George’s gelding has the necessary skills to make a big impact in a division lacking a real star at present. One of last season’s top novices, finishing runner-up to Samcro in the Neptune before going onto Grade 1 glory at Aintree, it was easy to see why the son of Sandmason was towards the fore in many ante-post lists for the RSA Chase this term. Despite not quite coming up to scratch first time over the larger obstacles at Exeter, he was given the benefit of the doubt and sent to Cheltenham to see whether he’d learnt from that initial experience, and although he jumped slightly better and gave out hope that he could be a contender for top honours in the novice chase category, he clearly didn’t entirely convince connections. Although yet to tackle three miles, he shapes as though he will stay the trip well, and in a period where there doesn’t appear to be too many genuine Grade 1 stayers around, it would come as no surprise if this likeable and honest type were to establish himself as one of the new kids on the block.

LOUGH SALT (best price 10-3) looked to have his run timed to perfection last time at Wetherby only to find the late thrust of My Old Salt thwarting him on the run-in, but it represented a fair effort by Richard Guest’s inmate and he looks to have been found a golden opportunity for him to break his maiden tag over fences. Having run well on his three previous starts over fences, the eight-year-old was well-backed to make it fourth time lucky back at his happy hunting ground and although those who supported him probably left the track disappointed he didn’t oblige, the numbers for the race suggested he’d still run to a fair level. Indeed, the well-beaten third home, Blue Flight, went on to land a handicap at Ascot last weekend off a mark of 122, so now back in his optimum grade (Class 4), the son of Brian Boru should find life a little easier.