Andy Holdings Saturday Racing Tips

PETIT PALAIS (best price 6-1) showed some useful form on the Flat and he looks to have carried that ability over to his new discipline on the evidence of his debut effort at Ludlow and he could turn out to be the fly in the ointment against several with slightly sexier profiles. 

Formerly with John Gosden on the level, the son of Champs Elysees clocked a decent number when landing a maiden at Wolverhampton back in September so it was a bit disappointing to see him flop badly next time out at Chelmsford. Picked up by his new connections to go jumping, the four-year-old chestnut immediately paid back their faith when scoring in tidy fashion at the Shropshire venue 26 days ago and with two strongly-fancied rivals from powerful yards well beaten back in second and third respectively, he clearly ran to a decent level first time off the shelf. Although today’s race looks competitive, there’s doesn’t appear to be anything super-scary in the field in terms of top quality, and hailing from a stable going through a decent little spell at present, he’s fancied to go close around track that suit based on his opening salvo.

Predictably, Angels Breath is likely to catch all the headlines in his bid to add to Nicky Henderson’s Supreme Novices Hurdle team, but for those seeking a little more bang for their buck might want to look towards SOUTHFIELD STONE (best price 10-1) as a value each-way alternative. 

Progressing with each run this term, Paul Nicholls’ inmate went from winning three relatively low-grade novice hurdles to being pitched into the deep end of Grade 1 company at Sandown two starts ago and although he came up just a little short of the mark, at the same time his performance in finishing third behind the useful Elixir De Nitz could hardly be described as a backward step.

Indeed, runner-up and stable mate, Grand Sancy, has gone on to advertise the form in the Kingwell Hurdle since and even though he got turned over when connections went looking for seemingly easy pickings at Taunton last time out, that defeat could be put down to the desperately unsuitable sticky ground. Back on better ground and going right-handed on a flat track, the grey son of Fair Mix looks primed to hit the frame at the very least.

The feature of the race won by EMILY SQUARE (best price 9-2) over today’s C&D 10 days ago was the surprisingly good speed figure for the grade posted by the winner and providing she’s anywhere near the same level of form on her return visit to the Co Meath venue, she should take plenty of beating in her follow up bid.

Having had twelve previous attempts to get off the mark over hurdles, you could hardly describe her as bet of the century material when she shipped up here for the eighth time in her career, but the way she powered her way to the front and ran right away from her rivals inside the final half a mile wasn’t the performance of a serial loser. Moreover, her final circuit sectionals also revealed she put up the best performance off all the four hurdle winners on the card, and when you consider they included horses already rated in the 120 category, it just shows what an effort it was for a horse on a perch of 92.

Even off a 9lb higher mark, it shouldn’t, therefore, be enough to prevent the daughter of Bushranger from repeating the dose and she can be backed with a certain degree of confidence under similar conditions. 
Notwithstanding the obvious claims of the mare, it makes a certain degree of sense to have a little bit of insurance on the one that chased her home that day, FATHER TED (best price 9-1), as that was the second time the son of Kutub has come alive at today’s track. Although he had no excuses on the day, he certainly ran well enough to suggest his previous C&D was no fluke and he could be one to focus on in the place only markets.

In true Countdown fashion, “I’ll take one from the top and one from the bottom please Rachel” with both DOUBLE SHUFFLE (best price 9-1) and WALT (best price 18-1) making plenty of appeal at their respective morning's odds for various reasons. 

The former has been banging his head against the wall for quite some time now, being asked to take on some of the very best chasers around off level weights, and although he’s often run with great credit in some top-class Graded races, he’s often just fallen short of the mark. What he does have in his favour, however, is a tremendous record at today’s track and even his run when fifth in the Kin George would surely give him some sort of chance back in a race of this nature. Second in this race two years ago off just a 5lb higher mark and hailing from a yard in good form, Tom George’s nine-year-old has the ideal conditions to brush aside top weight.

The latter wouldn’t normally jump off the page to many but bearing in mind he has a similar profile to the stable’s winner of this race two years ago, Pilgrim’s Bay, Neil Mulholland’s gelding has a better chance than his market price suggests. A revelation in the first-time visor on a quick surface at Taunton two starts ago, the son of King’s Theatre ran really well considering he was very aggressively ridden from the outset at Newbury last time out (paid for taking on Wenyerreadyfreddie) and arriving here fresher than most, this strong-travelling eight-year-old has the ability to make his presence felt on ground that will suit.

SAMBURU SHUJAA (best price 3-1) is improving at a rapid rate of knots and he’s also proven over today’s C&D, so it makes perfect sense to stay with Philip Hobbs’ gelding despite the looming presence of the similar progressive Kapcorse. 

Fifth in a hot maiden hurdle at Warwick back in December, the son of Poliglote looked like he was finally going to get off the mark at the tenth time of asking at Lingfield next time out, but unfortunately, he bumped into the useful stayer Geordie B who just proved too strong for him on the run-in. Tried over just short of three miles at the Welsh venue 36 days ago, the six-year-old once again set his stall out right from the start in a bid to make it a proper test and with all of fifteen rivals dropping away in the home straight, he gradually ground everything into submission with an awesome display of staying power.

Not too shabby on the overall speed figures either, he also managed to run a similar last circuit time than Lisnagar Oscar and Dickie Diver in a red-hot maiden hurdle, which reads well in the context of today’s race, and with Richard Johnson likely to send his mount on early again in bid to make it as painful an exercise for his opponents as possible, he should have most of these raising the white flag from a long way out. 

ANOTHER CRICK (NAP) (best price 9-4) failed to win a race in nine starts in bumpers and over hurdles, but he soon laid that ghost to rest once switching his attention to fences and Noel Williams’ progressive young chaser can continue his rise up the ladder off what still appears a very favourable mark. 

A promising runner-up in a well-contested novices’ chase at Chepstow in November, the Arcadio gelding left the impression he should have gone one place better at Southwell next time out as he allowed the well-ridden Destrier get first run. Always covering the pace to better effect last time out at Newbury in a similar race, the six-year-old never looked in any danger of defeat and in staying on strongly after the last, he pulled readily clear of the pace-setting Early Du Lemo to record a comfortable success.

Although he’s yet to encounter today’s 2m4f journey, he shapes as though the extra half a mile will suit and with the good ground also in his favour, he can at least give himself an outside chance of getting into the big novices’ handicap at the festival with a resounding victory (probably needs to up 8-10lbs at least).

It’s a shame that there’s now only seven runners in this finale as BALLY CONOR (best price 5-1 W/Out Dimple) had the makings of a solid each-way pick at the morning prices, but if you take a different approach and bet without the market leader, it effectively opens up the event as a three-place option again. 

Despite running green, the son of Presenting still managed to land a bumper at Ayr with a degree of comfort on his seasonal return and although he failed in his attempt to follow up over today’s course next time out, he came out of the race with a great deal of credit in third. Quickly switched to hurdles, Ruth Jefferson’s inmate was pitched into a pretty hot novices’ contest at Market Rasen last time out and even though he failed to land a meaningful blow at the leaders, he shaped a good deal better than the bare result suggested.

Not knocked about in anyway, the six-year-old is bound to have come on both mentally and physically for that initial outing and having shaped like a stayer each of his four starts to date, today’s 2m4f trip on a stiff track should prove right up his alley.