Andy Holding's Thursday Racing Tips

LA BAGUE AU ROI (NAP) (best price 7-4) holds the key piece of form coming into today’s contest courtesy of her game victory in the Kauto Star Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day and providing she can run to a similar level here this afternoon, she has a tremendous chance of rounding off her season in style. 3-3 over fences until that day, Warren Greatrex’s mare looked to have a stiff task on her hands up against the likes of Topofthegame and Santini, but in digging really deep for pressure all the way down the home straight, she managed to repel her two main market rivals to record her most notable victory so far to date.

Numbers-wise, the race at the Surrey venue compared favourably to the King George on the same card and with the vanquished going on to boost the form when filling out the first two places in the RSA Chase at the Festival, it’s hard to knock any aspect of the race in question. Arriving here fresher than most after her win in the Flogas Chase at Leopardstown back in February, the daughter of Doctor Dino, who has an amazing record of 11111111171111 when racing in field of 11 or fewer runners, looks to have a big chance of keeping those impressive stats intact around a track that should play into her strengths. 

CHOIX DES ARMES (best price 9-2) clearly has one or two questions to ask – especially regarding today’s trip – but he shapes like he might well improve for the extra distance and at the prices he’s worth taking a risk. Having shown promise on his opening gambit at Kempton this season, it was disappointing to see him go backwards on his next outing at Chepstow, but at least there was more encouragement to be gleaned from his latest effort at Exeter.

In a well-run affair at the West Country venue, the son of Saint Des Saints kept on quite willingly in the closing stages to finish a never-nearer fifth and with time figure of that race comparing very favourable against the one won by Eur Gone West on the same card, it makes little sense why he’s trading at four times the price of the Pipe horse.

Plenty with questions to ask here, including short-priced favourite Buveur D’Air to a small degree, and the one that looks completely and unjustifiably overpriced on many counts is CH’TIBELLO (best price 20-1). Always held in the highest regard by connections, Dan Skelton’s gelding finally had his big day in the sun when landing the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in some style and as that victory is bound to have done wonders for his confidence (was on a losing run of 11) he arrives here in just as good, if not better form, than some of his rivals.

The way he quickened up on the un-favoured part of the track at Prestbury Park 20 days ago suggests he’s right on top of his game and given that was his first outing since undergoing a wind operation, it’s pretty clear he’s benefitted greatly from the procedure.

Moreover, he’s one of only two that arrive here with solid C&D form under his belt thanks to his excellent display against the talented Midnight Shadow earlier in the campaign, and with the likes of Melon, Verdana Blue, Silver Streak and Brain Power all unproven over the trip, Faugheen arguably not as good as he was and Supasundae almost stopping to a walk to suggest something was wrong with him last time, the eight-year-old has to be worth a poke in both the with and ‘without the favourite’ markets in anticipation of a bold show.

BURNING AMBITION (best price 5-1) looks one of the more intriguing contenders in this sought-after amateur prize and when you then take on board connections have clearly gone out of their way to book Derek O’Connor, the intent is there for all to see.

Strongly-fancied to put up a bold show in last year’s Foxhunters at the Cheltenham festival (sent off 4-1 fav), the son of Scorpion looked to be travelling as well as anything approaching the second last but unfortunately for his supporters, from that point onwards his stamina gave way and he ended up fading back into the pack. Brought along steadily with a view to having a crack at this contest over a more suitable trip, the lightly-raced eight-year-old arrives with his confidence boosted thanks to smooth success at Down Royal last time out and with the figures pointing towards that performance being well above average for a race of its kind, there’s every chance he will go well here if he takes to the fences at the first time of asking.

EAMON AN CNOIC (best price 11-2) caught the eye with the way he travelled until running out of puff in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham and working on the theory that today’s drop back in trip will suit, he rates a solid each-way choice in this ultra-competitive handicap chase. 

Strongly fancied to run a big race at the Festival 21 days, David Pipe’s gelding didn’t disappoint and although he couldn’t quite see the job through to the end, he left the impression he’s capable of landing a big pot when the cards fall right. Previously impressive in a fast time at Chepstow, the son of Westerner has clearly got the sound jumping technique and cruising speed to cope with the minimum trip and with his stable going through a bit of a renaissance this term, it would be disappointing if he wasn’t in the shake-up.

Kelly Morgan wouldn’t be high on the list of most punters’ idea of a Grand National Festival winning trainer but, as a result, her stable star, TIMETOCHILL (best price 16-1), comes here under the radar and overpriced based on her form. Impressive on her first start for new connections in a bumper at Kelso, the daughter of Scorpion was pitched into the deep end in a listed contest at Huntingdon and having travelled like the best horse throughout, she scored readily with quite a bit in hand. Using the reliable third-placed horse, Silver Forever as a guide, the six-year-old mare is on a par with quite a few with sexier profiles ahead of her in the market and in a wide-open contest, she looks to have brighter prospect than her odds imply.