Andy Holding's Ebor Saturday Racing Tips

KIEFER (best price 7-1) has always had the look of a horse for whom this race would suit and having had pretty much his season geared around arriving here in peak form, Eve Johnson Houghton’s gelding appears primed for a big effort.

Promising in his first three outings in maidens, the son of Pour Moi has really come into his own once handicapped and upped in trip and he didn’t waste any time taking advantage of an opening mark of 75 at Newbury back in May. Although beaten twice since, his effort when runner-up in the Bibury Cup at Salisbury came courtesy of a big speed figure and he also shaped well last time out at Ascot despite soft ground not being ideal. The type who should be able to really express himself over today’s big, galloping circuit, the fast ground on offer should also suit and with some firms offering rather generous four place terms, the likeable grey makes plenty of each-way appeal.

Double the amount of prize money on the table compared to last year means just getting a run in the Skybet-sponsored Ebor was a feat in itself, and that is proven with a 105-rated bottom weight. Because of the compact nature of the weights, it seems a pointless exercise mulling over the pounds and ounces and it’s better to just stick to the tried and trusted formula of going with something with proven course form – which applies to most races at York. With that in mind, one of the key trials for the £1 million-pound event comes courtesy of the Group 3 contest run over the C&D on John Smith’s Cup day a month ago, with several of the main players that day set to do battle again. Won by Red Galileo, Ed Dunlop’s gelding fended off the likes of Raheen House, Weekender and Kelly’s Dino (won since) in a wild finish and with the time figure pointing towards the form of the race being particularly trustworthy, it wouldn’t come as too much of a surprise if one of the quartet were to triumph back to the scene of that epic encounter.

Of those, the safest option, arguably, is RAHEEN HOUSE (best price 7-1) as his numbers not only stack up well from that contest, but also from his previous performance over the same C&D a month earlier. Although no match for Gold Mount that afternoon, it still wasn’t a bad effort off the back of a 231-day break and in finding the necessary improvement the next day, the son of Sea The Stars was able to run to an even higher level in what turned out to be a very strongly-run affair. Held up way off the pace, he stayed on best of all to only go down narrowly in a driving finish and that performance only further added to the theory that he simply loves the galloping nature of the track. Having switched from Brian Meehan to William Haggas’ powerful yard, it seems connections have been dead-set on landing this big prize for quite a while and making sure no stone is left unturned in the build-up to the event, he should arrive on the Knavesmire at fever-pitch. Only out of the money twice in a 17-race career, the five-year-old also has handy course stats that read 123 and with form on a variety of conditions and stamina and class in equal measures, it’s hard to see him not having some sort of say in the final outcome.

Pretty Pollyanna brings genuine Group 1 form to the table and she’s likely to be a warm order under the allowances, but at the same time, she’s rather got out of the habit of winning and at her skimpy morning price, she’s passed over in favour of GOOD EFFORT (best price 22-1) at much more attractive odds. Campaigned largely over 7f/1m, Ismail Mohamed’s gelding had rather lost his way until a sudden change of heart resulted in one of his best career performances over today’s C&D last time out. Always travelling easily off the back of strong fractions, the son of Shamardal found smart turn of foot to readily brush aside a useful field and although today’s contest is a far cry from the shallower waters he encountered that day, he’s just the type who could excel in a bigger and better environment.

Given DANGEROUS ENDS’s (best price 10-1) run-style, he was always unlikely to be suited by the sharp mile at Lingfield last time out, but now back over a C&D that has served him well in the past, Brett Johnson’s inmate rates a more viable proposition.

Well behind at halfway at the Surrey venue, the five-year-old had very little chance of collecting, but at least he made a brave fist of the situation to run on strong to finish a never-nearer third and that at least signals he remains in decent form. A victory followed by a creditable runner-up spot under a penalty were his two offerings when racing over today’s C&D and with the useful William carver in the plate to ease the pain of top weight, the Monsieur Bond gelding should easily outrun his morning odds.

RISE HALL (best price 8-1) hasn’t got too many miles on the clock and with a chance that he still could be improving, Martyn Meade’s gelding can go close to providing his canny handler his second winner of the meeting. Third in a red-hot handicap over today’s C&D when upped in trip for the first time last season, the four-year-old hasn’t done too much wrong since and his victory at Newmarket last time out capped off a series of solid efforts in decent handicaps. Despite racing with the choke out during the early part of the contest a month ago, the son of Frankel still had enough in reserve to see off a small, but select field, and having thrived on the two times he’s encountered a big field and a strong pace, Rise Hall should turn out to be in his element under ideal conditions.

Whatever happens today, Richard Hannon has already enjoyed a great week, but there’s a better than outside chance that WEDDING DATE (best price 16-1) can provide the East Everleigh maestro with the perfect end to this meeting.

At her best when asked to finish strongly over five-furlongs, it’s no great surprise that her two worst performances in recent times have come over an extra furlong, so it best to focus on the positives. Seen to good effect when the pace collapsed over today’s C&D back in May, the daughter of Dandy Man once again did some really good late work on her latest outing at Ascot, coming from virtually last to sneak third against some classy and well-established older sprint handicappers. Back amongst her own age group this afternoon, expect her to be outpaced before coming with her usual late rattle and although she will need some luck in running to pull off such a feat, her generous morning price suggest she’s well worth the risk.

Little Nugget sets the standard courtesy of her fine effort in a decent novice contest at the Galway Festival, but she may have more on her plate than the market suggests up against the improving CAER (NAP) (best price 5-2).

A cosy winner of a bumper at Roscommon back in July, the daughter of Winged Love was in the process of running a big race at Galway herself when capsizing four from home, but she didn’t have to wait too long for compensation. Dusting herself down, she clearly suffered no ill effects from that tumble by bolting up at Sligo last time out and the fact that she made the strongly-fancied Bronagh’s Belle look quite pedestrian it testimony to her qualities. Likely to be ridden fairly handily – which isn’t a bad tactic around this sharp track – Noel Meade’s charge can provide the favourite all the trouble she can handle.

The key to the outcome of this race might lie within the similar heat run at Doncaster last week and of those that were involved in that contest on Town Moor, VERDIGRIS (best price 20-1) makes the most appeal at the morning odds. Held up towards the rear in the early stages, Ruth Carr’s filly was just beginning to creep nicely into the contest when she met all sorts of trouble in running and although it’s always difficult to come to a precise conclusion where she might have finished, there’s every chance she would have made the frame at the very least given how well she was going at the time. Prior to that unlucky effort, the daughter of Intense Focus had run respectably against the useful Warning Fire over today’s course and that backed up several previous solid performances at the track, including a success back in May. Flexible regards trip and back on a more favourable surface, the four-year-old has more in her favour than her early quotes suggest.