Two picks from Andy Holding for the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket.
The first thing to note about this unique race is that most of the previous winners have usually shown a good blend of pace for a mile and stamina for 1m2f and beyond. Although not set in stone, having previously run or won over the course can be an advantage, as the likes of Bronze Angel, Credit Swap, Prince Of Johanne, Spark Plug and Dolphin Vista have all proved this decade. A good mix of ages have triumphed recently although it’s worth pointing out that six-year-olds and under have dominated the role of honour since 1992 (Rambo’s Hall) so that counts against likely top-weight Raising Sands, who also falls short of the ideal weight carrying threshold of 9st 5lb.
Looking at all the trends, it’s no surprise that punters have latched onto the likes of Le Don De Vie, Lord North and Good Birthday, all being improving three-year-olds at the right end of the handicap. The former hasn’t got any course form to call upon, but he does have three tidy wins next to his name and a cracking performance over 1m4f at Goodwood behind St Leger runner-up, Sir Ron Priestley, to hang his hat on. Similarly, the latter has also been plying most of his trade in hard-knocking, big-field and hugely competitive three-year-old handicaps and he probably makes the most appeal of those from the Classic generation. A cracking third in the London Gold Cup earlier the season from a poor draw (race worked out very well subsequently), Andrew Balding’s gelding produced a similar effort at Newmarket in July before going on to gain his just rewards for his endeavours at Beverley last time out. Having got form under a variety of underfoot conditions, Good Birthday would be least inconvenienced by the predicted rainfall during the week than most and it’s easy to fashion a solid case out for him winning at his current odds of 12-1.
Another three-year-old who has been running well in the big heritage handicaps is MAJESTIC DAWN (best price 33-1) and yet he seems to have totally overlooked by most bookmakers and punters alike. Although finishing behind Good Birthday in that aforementioned London Gold Cup at Newbury back in May, Paul Cole’s inmate has gained his revenge twice on his old rival, firstly at Newmarket when he somehow managed to finish third despite running with the choke out for majority of the journey and then secondly in the King George Handicap at Royal Ascot. Looking back at his performance at the Berkshire track, nothing travelled better than the son of Dawn Approach until his stamina just gave way inside the final furlong, but when you consider the strength of the race with the likes of Sir Ron Priestley, Sinjaari, Summer Moon, Fox Premier and Good Birthday all well beaten in behind, it’s easy to forget how well he ran that day. Kept fresh for a tilt at this prize since, unfortunately – as is often the case with three-year-olds in races of this nature nowadays – he needs 11 to drop out before getting a run at time of writing (number 46 on the card and a maximum field of 35), but with the softening of the ground likely to put a few off and several yards/connections double and triple handed in some cases, there’s half a chance he might just scrape in down the foot of the weights. Even if he gets balloted out, punters will get a refund under ante-post rules but if he does run, there’s simply no way this lightly-raced and improving chestnut should be a 33-1 shot based on all known evidence and hailing from a stable in decent form at present.
As history has dictated, it’s not always about the sexy younger horses, as many hard-knocking, grizzled handicappers who know the ropes have obliged in the last two decades. Of those that have cut their teeth in such races in recent times, JAZEEL (best price 20-1) makes the most appeal and he’s also worth backing at his current odds of 20-1.
Ticking the course form box being the winner of the Silver Cambridgeshire last season, Jedd O’Keeffe’s gelding has run consistently well during this campaign, with the exception of his two slightly below-par efforts at York. Clearly the nature of the Knavesmire track doesn’t suit the son of Roderic O’Connor for some reason, but other than that, his four other performances have been of the very highest order. Runner-up over the C&D on his return to action back in May, the four-year-old showed plenty of grit and determination to fend off Beringer at Sandown two months later and if it wasn’t for the late swoop of useful Fayez at Goodwood, he would have added to his winning tally. Although unsuited by how the race panned out at York when last seen, at least he did finish off his race with enough gusto to suggest he’s still remains in good heart and with the time figure extremely good and the likes of Caradoc, Gibbs Hill, Epaulement, Persian Moon, and Eynehallow all tipping their hats to the standard of the form since, Jazeel clearly has first-class credentials and a good deal of attributes normally associated with previous winners of this prize.
