Andy Holding's Saturday Racing Tips

This is almost a carbon copy of the set of circumstances facing Summer Sands in the Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy later in the day, in the sense, favourite Under The Stars has an obvious-looking chance based on her cracking effort in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes here last week, but as today’s race will be run on a totally different surface, James Tate’s filly is readily pushed to one side.

Looking towards those at much more tempting odds, ANGEL GREY (best price 16-1) has done enough to suggest she could be up for a giant-killing attempt and is worth a crack to small beer. Steadily improving with each run, Andrew Balding’s filly arrives here off the back of a career-high best when third in an ultra-competitive nursery at Goodwood and with those around her that day all going on to add substance to the form (Caspian Queen, Graceful Magic and Rose Of Kildare), it was clearly a much better heat than your average fillies handicap. Although it’s almost impossible to tell, hopefully her low draw towards the far side won’t prove to be an inconvenience and if so, there’s every chance that she will punch heavily above her weight.

As is always the case in one of these big sales events, a good mixture of quality pattern-race form intertwined with some promising unexposed types who’ve yet to fulfil their potential and the one who sets a very high standard, is last week’s Middle Park third, Summer Sands. There has to be, however, a degree of uncertainty whether he’s capable of running to the same level on totally different ground and it’s not as if many are going to repay off their mortgages at such a skinny price so he’s passed over in favour of a couple at bigger odds.

The first to make some sort of appeal is DUBAI STATION (best price 12-1) who interestingly is the only representative from the Karl Burke yard from an original cast of three (Rayong and Jamais Assez the other pair). A staying-on third in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot on soft ground, the son of Brazen Beau did as well as could be expected up against one of the best two-year-olds seen out so far this season, earthlight, in a Group 3 at Deauville next time and even a repeat of that level of form would surely see him go close here. Unsuited by fast ground at York last time, heavy ground and a nice draw down the middle give this strong juvenile a better chance than his morning odds imply.

The other at even bigger odds who could be good enough to cause a surprise is HARTSWOOD (best price 33-1). A real slow burner who has taken a while to strengthen up a fill into his frame, his current rating will no doubt leave many thinking he has no chance of making an impact. However, his performance under testing conditions at Haydock suggests he will cope with today’s ground better than most and his victory at Thirsk last time from a terrible draw on ground faster than ideal only further strengthen the case for the defence.

The current score between IRIDESSA (best price 7-2) and Hermosa is 2-2, and the former is taken to edge the balance of power in her favour based on her performance in the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown last time out. Settling nicely in behind a strong pace set by Laurens, Joseph O’Brien’s filly had to find a couple of lengths of her main market rivals approaching the final furlong, but with powerful late burst, she ran right over the top of some of the best fillies around to score with a bit in hand. Victorious also in the Fillies’ Mile this time last year, the daughter of Ruler Of The World is clearly to hand just at the right time and with the ground drying out in the last 24 hours to make the ground no worse than good-to-soft, she’s fancied to add to her tally of Group 1 wins.

Co Meath handler Matthew Smith is really beginning to make a name for himself on the bigger stages and in the shape of MINDSMADEUP (NAP) (best price 7-1), he has a chance to claim another notable success in this Grade B handicap. Since returning to the fray in June, the eight-year-old has put together a series of fine performances and his latest victory at the Listowel Festival suggested he’s still very much going in the right direction. In a keenly-contested heat, the son of Golden Tornado was always moving well within himself and after picking up the running going well turning for home, he always looked to have matters in control despite the persistent threat of Oh’Herewego. Time figure-wise, the race works out well and with the fourth, Theatre World, and ninth, Ellipsism, both boosting the form since, hope is high that Mindsmadeup can take the step up in grade in his stride.

As we saw yesterday, slow ground is very much the order of the day at the Berkshire venue, and as we’ve seen many times before, DI FEDE (best price 3-1) is well averse to coping with both track and conditions in equal measures and she rates the number one pick in this competitive fillies’ contest. Other than a no-show in the 2017 Chesham Stakes on only her third career start, Ralph Beckett’s filly has pretty much been a standing dish over this stiff track and her latest performance, albeit which resulted in defeat, was arguably one her best efforts based on the pure figures. Looking dangerous two out, ultimately the daughter of Shamardal just didn’t quite get home against genuine Group 1 and 2 fillies in the Duke Of Cambridgeshire but she did have plenty of very smart performers in behind so it has to go down as a top class display. Winner of this race twelve months ago when her usual stalk and pounce tactics were seen to good effect, hopefully another patient ride towards the back of the field early on will once again bear fruit at the business end.

If the most likely winner fails to shine, the one that makes the most appeal of the rest at the prices is TAPISSERIE (best price 12-1). Lightly-raced, William Haggas’ inmate has really come into her own with plenty of give underfoot and she also proved she’s up this standard when landing a listed contest in decisive fashion at Carlisle back in June. Unsuited by trying to chase a hot pace over six-furlongs on un-favoured fast ground at Pontefract when last seen, the daughter of Le Havre arrives here freshened up after a 48-day break and providing connections revert to the same hold-up tactics that are suitable to both her and the way most winners are ridden over today’s stiff track, the three-year-old chestnut has a decent chance of picking up the pieces late on.

ABNAA (best price 11-4) could have done with a better draw here tonight, but so well did he shape in a hot novice event at Newbury on debut that he’s taken to overcome the slight impost. Nibbled in the market beforehand at the Berkshire track, Brian Meehan’s colt certainly knew his job as he raced up with the strong pace in the early stages, but as the tempo increased even further heading inside the final two furlongs, his lack of race conditioning began to tell and he ended up fading into fifth. That said, the time figure of the race was such that even getting beat eight lengths was still a fair effort on the numbers and with the third and fourth advertising the form by finishing first and second in a Bath nursery since, the son of Dark Angel can do his own bit for the race in question granted just normal improvement.