Andy Holding's Saturday Racing Tips

Amazingly, Aidan O’Brien has yet to win this prize, but he did go very close to ending the hoodoo last season with subsequent Guineas hero, Magna Grecia, and cut from a similar cloth, PERSIA (best price 5-1), strikes as being one who could easily take this before going on to better things next year.

As green as The Hulk on debut at The Curragh, the on of Galileo was well-supported to leave that run well behind at Galway last time out and jumped alertly from his wide gate to get to the front after a furlong, he never looked in any danger of letting his backers down. Showing an abundance of stamina in the testing conditions, the scopey two-year-old stayed on relentlessly up the stiff hill and on the run to the line and likely to be ridden in a similarly aggressive manner here this afternoon, this Derby entry is taken to end his season on a high.

There’s no doubt the big headline act here is Pink Dogwood, but she’s looked a bit subdued in her last few starts – albeit against top-quality opposition – and she could be vulnerable to one who can handle these testing conditions better in the shape of DADOOZDART (best price 8-1). If anyone had said that Noel Meade’s charge would be a fair bet to beat a 115-rated filly later in the season after finishing tenth of 15 in a handicap off a mark of 81 at Naas on his opening gambit of the campaign, they would have laughed you out of town, but such has been the progression of him since, that the far-fetched ideal could end up being reality. Too strong for subsequent King George Handicap winner, South Pacific, when stepped up in trip back at the Co Kildare venue next time, the son of Dawn Approach exhibited extreme battling qualities to outstay his opponents in the well-run Ulster Derby when last seen and it comes as no surprise to see connections back off him for the thick end of three months in order for him to recover from that brutal ordeal. Hopefully the pause that refreshes will have done the trick as this likeable three-year-old is fancied to have more stomach for the fight under these conditions than some of his more illustrious rivals.

As you’d expected for the money on offer, a hugely-competitive field has been assembled and of the 22 that are due to face the starter, APLOMB (best price 15-2) and INTISAAB (best price 20-1) both have solid cases to be made.

The former has been in decent form most of the season and with both his two victories during the campaign having come with some ease underfoot, conditions here this afternoon should turn out to be ideal. Moreover, his latest effort when runner-up to the improving Tinto at Ascot underlined his current wellbeing and with the time-figure of the race at the Berkshire venue also suggesting it might be above-average form for the grade, the son of Lope De Vega still remains on the upgrade.

The latter has impressive form figures at the track that read 22154 and with that sole victory among the other solid efforts coming courtesy of a win in this race back in 2016, it’s clear he’s well-suited by the way the races often unfold on the Knavesmire. Having run better than his finishing position suggested in the Ayr Gold Cup two starts ago, David O’Meara’s gelding was fancied to go close at Wolverhampton last time out and although he failed to get competitive having been towards the back of the field, the way he flew home inside the last two furlongs pointed towards a horse in decent shape at present. Although in an ideal world he could have done with the conditions a little quicker, he has handled soft ground in the past and nicely drawn down the middle, the son of Elnadim should be rattling home well at the business end.

Horses based from a National Hunt yard who have form in hard-knocking, big-field handicaps have a fair record in this race over the years, so with that in mind, the two that make the most appeal under the prevailing conditions and morning odds are GREAT TRANGO (best price 18-1) and COEUR BLIMEY (best price 40-1).

The former got a real rough run through from a wide draw in the big amateur riders race at the Galway Festival when last seen on the Flat, but he was noted doing some good late work on the run-in and that performance proved a springboard to his success over hurdles back at the same track a few days later. Staying on very strongly in the latter stages of that hugely-competitive 2m7f handicap hurdle, the son of Canford Cliffs once again proved that stamina is his forte and having been saved specifically for this prize ever since, he holds a gilt-edged chance with the recent rain coming in his favour.

The latter would be deemed to have little chance on fast ground (ran poorly at Royal Ascot under such conditions), but on genuine soft – which its likely to be – Sue Gardner’s eight-year-old has a squeak of causing an upset. A useful mid-130’s hurdler at his best, the son of Winged Love clocked a decent speed figure when accounting for the useful Coeur De Lion at Newbury over today’s trip back in April and if he’s capable of running to the same sort of level here today, there’s no way he should be dismissive 40-1 chance, wide draw or not.

For us jump fans, a race like this signals the start of the winter game proper, and if you look down the role of honour for this hugely competitive 2m4f handicap, both BOLD PLAN (best price 15-2) and REMASTERED (best price 10-1) represent stables who have a great record in the race over the years.

The former was good enough to lower the colours of Southfield Stone at Taunton on testing ground back in February and when you consider that horse went on to land the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton and ended the season on a mark of 142, it puts into perspective the strength of his effort at the West Country venue. Well-backed on his final run of the season at Uttoxeter, Evan Williams’ gelding just couldn’t quite get to grips with real mud-lover, Poker Party, on the prevailing conditions, but in turn, he did finish clear of the rest which included the likes of high-quality novices’ Acey Milan, Hill Sixteen and Aintree Grade 1 fifth, Lord Napier. Hailing from a stable that has landed this prize twice in the last four years with Court Minstrel, one can imagine the son of Jeremy has had this target on his radar ever since and this lightly-raced chasing type should relish both the track and going.

The latter also hails from a Pond House set-up who have taken this contest four times since its beginning in 1988 and he looks just the type to carry on where he left off from last season. A cosy winner of a maiden hurdle in a fast time on his hurdling debut at FFos Las, David Pipe’s inmate was backed off the boards to follow up at Exeter next time out and although at the time it was a shock to see him trail in a modest fifth, most of the field either ahead or behind him that day went on to boost the form enough to suggest it wasn’t a total stinker of a run. Back on track when just out-muscled by the progressive Dashel Drasher at Newbury on his final start of the season, the son of Network arrives here off a workable mark of 133 and we also know that he goes well fresh and handles the track courtesy of his win in bumper on rules debut back in 2018.

DARE TO FLARE (NAP) (best price 9-4) has been competing at a fairly high level of late without getting maximum rewards but under ideal conditions there’s every chance he can deliver the goods providing he doesn’t give away a huge amount at the start.

Once again, his tendency to missed the break and get behind proved ultimately to be his undoing at Tipperary last time out, but to his great credit he did manage to salvage something from the wreckage to finish a staying-on runner-up behind Onlyhuman. In turn, he readily accounted for two of today’s rivals Aussie Valentine and Cyrus Dallin and as long as he’s somewhere within striking distance of that pair this afternoon, his usual strong finishing burst should hopefully prove the decisive factor over a track that lends itself to grinders rather than Fancy-Dan travellers.

HOULTON (best price 8-1) just got touched off by a horse right on top of his game here last time out (Champarisi) but with the time figure suggesting it was a fair heat for the grade, Marco Botti’s gelding is afforded another chance back at the scene of that excellent effort. In a race run at a strong tempo from the start 33 days ago, the four-year-old chestnut travelled sweetly throughout and having hit the front looking like he was going to oblige inside the final furlong, he just had his pocket picked late on. On the evidence of that display, tonight’s two furlongs less to travel should suit and with a profile suggesting he’s almost sure to run his race, another bold show looks on the cards.

The Convivial Maiden at York has a rich tradition of producing stars of the future and with the winner of this year’s renewal, Molatham already going to suggest this year’s renewal was well above average by going on to score at listed level next time, the fourth home, POT OF PAINT (best price 9-2) rates a decent bet at the prices to follow suit in this fairly ordinary-looking novice event.

Green and in the rear early, Tom Dascombe’s colt took a while to find his stride on the Knavesmire, but once he realised what he was supposed to be doing, he came home to good effect to hit the line nicely to finish a never-nearer fourth. Sure to have benefitted from that initial outing mentally just as much as physically, this substantial son of New Approach should turn out to be a huge player in a race of this nature and on a surface, based on his action, that should also be right up his alley.