Andy Holding's Saturday Racing Tips

Amma Grace ran a race full of promise on debut and is clearly a nice filly in the making, but whether she deserves to be so short in the market based on the pure form of her opening gambit is open to question and the better value, therefore, may lie with the likes of EPONA PLAYS (best price 11-1) and KATIE BO KAT (best price 16-1).

The former ran a race full of promise on her debut at Gowran when staying on strongly from the back of the field to finish a never-nearer fourth behind the useful Even So and hailing from a yard whose two-year-olds often improve significantly from their initial outing, Willie McCreery’s filly is expected to take a huge step forward. Moreover, the time figure of the race she was involved in was extremely good for a juvenile contest (best on card) and providing she breaks well from her potentially favourable draw here today, the daughter of Australia has the potential to outrun her odds.

The latter also caught the eye on her debut at Fairyhouse and she, too, makes plenty of appeal hailing from a stable whose fillies have been carrying all before them this season. Held up in mid-field at the Co Meath track, Jessica Harrington’s filly came home with plenty of lead in her pencil once the penny had dropped and given that she was involved in a race that produced the quickest final three-furlong sectional on the eight-race card, her performance deserves upgrading.

A cracking Group 1 sprint to start what should turn out to be a tremendous day’s racing and it would be a lovely to see Make A Challenge go well for sporting connections who have been living the dream all season long over in Ireland. A real rags-to-riches story, Denis Hogan’s gelding deserves to take his chance at the very top level following some scintillating performances on home soil and if it wasn’t for the fact that all of his best have taken place at the Curragh, he would rate a stronger candidate to end the fairytale on a high note.

The one thing for sure is that the race is likely to be run at a sound gallop and that should play into the strengths of ONE MASTER (NAP) (best price 5-1) who ticks most of the boxes when it comes to weighing up all the pros and cons. Firstly, she arrives here in tremendous heart courtesy of her victory in the Prix Foret at Longchamp on Arc Day and secondly, she has form over further than six furlongs so, in a race which is likely to prove a proper test at the trip, her ability to stay well might prove the key component. Moreover, her form figures on soft ground reads an impressive 1111 so providing she can stay within hailing distance of the pace-setters at halfway, it is hard to envisage William Haggas’ mare not having a huge say in the final outcome.

NIKAP (best price 10-1) hasn’t had too much go right in her three starts to date, but she has shown she possess quite a bit of ability and if she can piece it altogether, Nigel Hawke’s mare can ruffle the feathers of several more fancied rivals.

Considering her saddle slipped after shying at the paddock bend at an early stage on her debut in a bumper at Chepstow, she ran an extraordinary race to finish an eye-catching runner-up to the useful Garrettstown and then she ran off the track while in the lead at Bangor next time. Clearly at pains to get her just to finish a race without mishap on her return to action at Warwick last time out, the daughter of Kapgarde came home to good effect from miles off the pace to finish a never-nearer fourth behind three useful novices and that performance once again highlighted her decent engine. Similarly to 25 days ago, the hood which seemed to have a calming effect is in operation again, and with today’s galloping track on soft ground likely to play into her strengths, the lightly-raced five-year-old can turn out to be a bigger player than the market suggests if wayward tendencies can be harnessed in the right direction.

FLEETING (best price 6-1) has yet to get her head in front so far this season, but she’s run a series of fine races in defeat and she rates a solid each-way proposition under optimum conditions. Runner-up to Star Catcher in the Ribblesdale at the Royal meeting back in June, Aidan O’Brien’s filly was slightly below-par for one reason or another on her re-match with John Gosden’s filly at Longchamp two starts ago, so it was good to see her bounce back to something close to her best form when returning to the Paris track last time. Held up towards the rear 13 days ago, the daughter of Zoffany came home with a rare rattle to finish an agonising runner-up in the Group 1 Prix De L’Opera, but that performance at least went some way to advertising her want for very soft ground. Likely to be held up off the speed again, her deep-closing run style is well suited by the way races often pan out on the round track at the Berkshire venue and this consistent filly looks the safest each-way option beyond the favourite.

L’EMPATHIE (best price 12-1) may lack the experience for a race of this nature, but she doesn’t when it comes to pure ability and hopefully, she will know enough to put her skills to good use on handicap debut. Catching the eye with the way she finished off her race at Killarney on debut, the daughter of Champs Elysees was extremely well-backed to vindicate the impression she created at the Co Kerry venue and after travelling well throughout what turned out to be an extremely strongly-run race in the conditions at the harvest festival, she justified the heavy support in the market (20-1 into 13-2) to score with a bit up her sleeve. With such a strong speed figure for a race of that kind, it’s always good to see those in behind go on to frank the form, and that’s been the case with both runner-up, Jazzy Lady and third, Harriet Tubman, winning since. Given the subsequent events of those vanquished, Joseph Murphy’s lightly-raced filly seems to have escaped fairly lightly to be given a rating of 78 and it’s a mark she can exploit to full capacity at some stage – so let’s hope it’s today as 12-1 looks a fair price.

This race is a real conundrum in more ways than one because the stats say you need to be drawn low (all five winners since 2014 berthed 10 or lower) yet all the best/fancied horses are housed towards the nearside fence in double-figure stalls. With that in mind, it may be best to split the difference, so to speak and go for BIOMETRIC (best price 12-1) in hope that he can replicate his infamous victory in the Britannia here back in June.

A real party pooper that day, Ralph Beckett’s inmate did win on merit despite all the focus being on Turgenev and Frankie and the subsequent form of many of those vanquished also suggested it was an above-average renewal. Undone by poor draws and fast ground on his next two starts, the Bated Breath colt returns to the scene of his greatest triumph fresh and raring to go on conditions that should suit and representing stable whose runners are bursting out of their skins at present.

Of the rest, Kynren looks sure to run his race again and has to be shortlist material, but it would also be unwise to discount old ESCOBAR (best price 18-1) considering he finished in front of David Barron’s charge in this race last year and he ran well from a poor draw here last time. While his old pal Kynren had the luxury of racing up the favoured stands’ side rail 14 days ago, David O’Meara’s five-year-old fared best of those forced to race away from the pace and on the slower ground down the middle, so it’s probably fair to give his performance some sort of upgrade. Seemingly well-suited by these big-field handicaps when he can finish strongly off a decent pace, he also goes well for today’s pilot, Adam Kirby, and the combination of all those factors make him a fair each-way proposition at the morning odds.

BOPEDRO (best price 12-1) has a bit to find based on the official figures with some of the more established names, but at the same time, he appears to be improving, handles soft ground and just as importantly, seems to have a very willing attitude which are all attributes that contribute to him being a decent each-way proposition in his step up in class. 

The son of Pedro The Great made the perfect start for new connections when causing a 25-1 shock in a competitive handicap over seven furlongs at Cork back in August and he’s subsequently gone on to prove that victory was no fluke. Probably unsuited by the tight nature of Listowel next time out, Jim Bolger’s colt was more than a shade unlucky in the big premier handicap on Irish Champion Stakes Day here several days later when he didn’t receive the clearest of runs in the short home straight. He did, however, leave the impression there’s more to come and he confirmed that view by scoring in dominant fashion at the Curragh last time out. Taking a while to hit top speed at the Co Kildare venue, the three-year-old eventually pulled well clear of a hugely competitive field with plenty to spare and the way he hit the line more than suggests he’s ready for a step up in trip. Moreover, both Mount Everest and Rakan haven’t exactly been ripping up any trees so far this season and have questions to ask and if you work on the premise that he has a similar chance to both One Cool Poet and Onlyhuman, who arrive here on the same sort of trajectory via handicaps, he looks the overpriced runner in the field.