Our racing expert says take the early price on Ralph Beckett's inmate.
As far as this season goes, Pinatubo has been by a country mile the standout juvenile in this division and he currently rates a worthy favourite for next year’s opening classic after a series of breath-taking performances. We first caught glimpse of the future when he scooted up at Wolverhampton on his debut and that was backed up by his victory in the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom at month later. Impressive in the Chesham at Royal Ascot, Charlie Appleby’s colt then produced a real ‘wow factor’ moment in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood when, off the back of very strong fractions, he simply left his useful rivals for dead with a tremendous turn of foot. The son of Shamardal produced a cut-and-paste display in the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh on his next start and although he wasn’t as devastating in the Dewhurst on his final outing of the campaign, like all good Premier League-winning teams, at least it proved he could grind out a result when not as his best. Setting sail for the winter with an even higher rating than the mighty Frankel at this stage of his career (128 compared to 123), the unbeaten colt is odds-on in some places to confirm his superiority as a three-year-old and providing he trains on and can deliver a similar levels of brilliance, then the rest may as well not turn up. Or is it as simple as that?
Having trained 10 winners of the colt’s mile classic, Aidan O’Brien is bound to have some sort of say, and although he may not have the superstars in his ranks than in previous seasons, some of the ones we’ve seen may be open to a good deal of improvement once they are more physically developed. This weekend’s Futurity was a springboard for both Magna Grecia and Saxon Warrior in recent times, so, with what looks like a total monopoly of this year’s renewal, the result of that Group 1-mile contest at Doncaster has to be taken very seriously, while the likes of Arizona and Wichita, will be hoping that on better ground, they might be able to bridge the gap with their Dewhurst conqueror.
Earthlight is the other youngster who has showed a high level of form in his unbeaten run and he has to be of some interest despite slight fears that distances short of a mile might end up being his optimum. His game victory over a stellar field in the Middle Park supplemented his previous success in the Prix De Morny on home soil, and it also proved his adaptability regards underfoot conditions. Yet to race beyond six-furlongs, Andre Fabre’s colt is also owned by Godolphin, so whether connections would want to be putting both their eggs in one basket come the spring is very much open to question and it might well be that this likeable type ends up either in the French equivalent or, if he doesn’t fit the stamina criteria in an early trial, he reverts to sprinting and becomes their number one Commonwealth Cup horse.
Looking at the role of honour for the 2000 Guineas, it’s not inconceivable that a smaller stable can produce the winner if they have the right ammunition – Galileo Gold, Makfi and Cockney Rebel just a few examples – and if there is to be one from this category heading into next season with a bigger chance than the current market implies, it may turn out to be KINROSS (best price 25-1).
Well-touted before his debut at Newmarket on October 5, Ralph Beckett’s inmate produced a display of the utmost class and he not only clocked a very fast time at the first time of asking, his backend sectionals also suggested we are dealing with an above-average two-year-old. Having arrived at the two pole travelling easily, the son of Kingman quickened up in spectacular fashion to leave his 14 rivals for dead and even though he was by no means hard driven to the line, he still scored by an impressive eight lengths. The interesting feature of that performance is that he managed to run the last three-furlongs a second quicker (roughly five lengths) than Group 1 older filly Billesdon Brook and even more significantly, he was also far superior in every department than the other two juvenile races on the card won by Under The Stars and White Moonlight, which is probably a better guide to his achievements. Knowing these figures were so good, it was lovely to see the runner-up at HQ, Raaeb, dot up in a Kempton novice event subsequently and considering the rest were strung out like Monday morning washing, there’s no reason to doubt the validity of the form. Due to have one more run in the Cancom Stakes at Newbury this weekend (formerly The Horris Hill), connections are clearly seeking to find out whether they have a live Guineas candidate on their hands, while at the same time, give their colt some more valuable experience which will hopefully stand him in good stead for next season. Whether he’s the type to be slogging his way through slow Autumn ground on just his second career start is a moot point, but either way, he will hopefully have enough class to pull through. Sure to be better suited by more traditional Flat racing ground in time, however, this potentially smart, easy-moving colt has all the right attributes to become a top-class performer in time and at 25-1, he arguably represents the only slice of value left on the table looking at the ante-post lists for next year’s Guineas.
