Andy Holding's Thursday Racing Tips

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BROG AHAON (best price 4-1) has had little chance of being competitive up against the sort of opposition he’s been taking on so far over fences, but now in a race where he should be capable of holding his own, he finally makes some sort of appeal on handicap debut.

No match for the likes of Notebook and Éclair De Beaufeu on his chase debut at Punchestown back in October, Moses McCabe’s inmate has been in fairly deep on his next two starts and even though he failed to cut much ice on either occasion, there’s been enough promise in each performance to cling on to plenty of hope going forward. Indeed, if it wasn’t for a bad mistake at the one going away from the stands at Fairyhouse last time out which completely derailed his prospects, he would have no doubt finished a good deal closer than his 15-length losing margin and in a race that came out well on the speed figures, it clearly wasn’t a bad effort by the son of Stowaway. Third on one of only two starts at today’s track over hurdles a year ago, the six-year-old went on to bag his sole career victory at Kilbeggan later in the campaign and with most of his best form coming on ground no worse than yielding, today’s drying conditions should help his cause no end.

The Broghie Man produced a career-high effort over hurdles from left field at Punchestown last time out, but as it was a race that rather fell apart in the latter stages due to the front two in the market cutting each other’s throats, his performance might be slightly flattering. Chalked up around the 7-4 mark this morning, he could, therefore, qualify as a shaky-looking favourite and he’s passed over in favour of WHATSNOTOKNOW (NAP) (best price 3-1) at much more favourable odds.

A remote second to the smart Daylight Katie on hurdling debut at Fairyhouse, Mouse Morris’ inmate duplicated that finishing position over today’s C&D last time out, but this time, he produced a far more competitive display. Always on the sharp end of a well-run affair, the son of Mahler only just got outrun late on by the fast-finishing Arcadian Sunrise, but with the time figure good and the pair well clear of the rest, the form looks fairly useful in the context of today’s race. Hopefully, that invaluable track experience will stand him in good stead and he can help provide his classy handler with a welcome winner.

Although it might be stretching matters to suggest this is crunch time for Shishkin, he does have to win fairly impressive one would feel to justify his rather cramped-looking odds for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle on what he’s achieved so far to date. Whether today’s trip proves more suitable than two miles in future only time will tell, but either way, he represents little value at his morning odds and he’s passed over in favour of SHAN BLUE (best price 6-1) who already has solid Graded form on the board. Play him without the favourite too. 

Highly-regarded by connections’ Dan Skelton’s gelding looked as though he’d got the Grade 2 Leamington Spa Hurdle at Warwick neatly wrapped up as he skipped away from his field rounding the home turn, but as it turned out, his aggressive tactics in kicking on too far from home eventually caught up with him and he faded after the last to finish a creditable third. Having shown plenty of all-round pace to score by 20 lengths the time before over two miles, hopefully, the son of Shantou will receive a more conservative ride here this afternoon, and if so, he’s the one most likely to put it up to the red-hot jolly who will have all the pressure on his shoulders.