Andy Holding assesses last season's crop of juveniles
When looking back at the class of 2019/20’s juveniles, there’s only one place to start, The Triumph Hurdle itself at the Cheltenham Festival.
In arguably one of the most talked about renewals for many years, all the pre-race chat largely surrounded how the contest might pan out in terms of tactics and whether certain horses would be taken out of their comforts zones. Most of the leading players had, by-and-large, fairly similar profiles, in the sense they had dominated weaker opposition in small fields so, with the possibility of several cutting their throats in a desire to make the running, naturally something would have to give.
There was a real sense of surprise, therefore, that Allmankind was afforded a relatively uncontested early lead and the other two nominated front runners, Goshen and Aspire Tower were prepared to sit in behind and take the trail. This led to a slightly pedestrian first half a mile, but once they set sail down the back straight, the gas was most definitely turned up by Dan Skelton’s gelding. This dramatic change of tempo certainly helped Goshen, as he had the potential to over-race in the early exchanges, and by the time the leading pack had got to the top of the hill, Gary Moore’s inmate was seemingly still full of running. Indeed, once they had swung into the home straight, it was clear that the well-backed 5-2 favourite was about to justify the gamble and pre-race hype, but as we now know, what happened at the last will go down in festival folklore, much to the exasperation of his connections and supporters alike.
As has been highlighted in my Champion Hurdle assessments in a previous article, from the first hurdle in the back straight to the point where he fell at the last, the son of Authorized had run that part of the race 2.8 quicker than Saint Roi, who took the County Hurdle half an hour later, so based on those numbers, it is clear we are dealing with an above-average four-year-old. How good, only time will tell, but at this moment in time, he thoroughly deserves his post-race rating of 158 and that assessment makes him one of the highest rated juvenile hurdlers to go into the following season (ten-year-average 151), with the distinct likelihood of even more to come. Now looking extremely unlikely to pursue a path on the Flat due to the uncertainty of the new campaign, Goshen will be trained with the 2021 Champion Hurdle as the main target and although there always has to be a doubt surrounding juveniles when they take on the older, more established fraternity the following season, this hardy and powerful galloper appears to have more to his game than several who have been and gone before him from the same category.
So what can we say about the rest? We know Burning Victory was a lucky winner, but was she an above-average one or just one who is likely to struggle against the big boys next season. If you use Allmankind and Aspire Tower as a strict form guide, then you would probably draw to the former conclusion, however, given how the race fell apart at the end for reasons already outlined, the second theory is the most likely outcome. The only credit you would give Willie Mullins’ filly is that she had to do it the hard way from the back of the field (last at the top of the hill), and that miraculous turnaround can be put down to her reserves of stamina. Just as she did when winning on debut it was also noticeable that her technique leaves quite a bit to be desired (made mistakes at the third, fourth, fifth and sixth) and that is another reason why she is likely to found wanting in some of the better races next term.
Aspire Tower did remarkably well in the circumstances to keep on into second place considering how free he was in the first half of the race and that is testimony to his natural ability and tough attitude. The leading Irish juvenile on ratings and overall from going into Cheltenham despite having hit the deck in the Grade 1 at Leopardstown previous, Henry De Bromhead’s gelding came out of his festival exploits with his reputation firmly intact and, providing he can learn to settle a little more in the interim, the son of Born To Sea has the size and scope to do well outside of his own age group next season. Long term, he looks a fine chasing prospect.
It is probably not unfair to suggest Allmankind was a shade disappointing back in third given the nature of his performances pre-Cheltenham and even more so when you consider the early stages of the race couldn’t have gone any smoother. The fact that he faded so tamely strongly suggests that the galloping nature of the New Course put more emphasis on his stamina – especially how aggressively he was ridden in the middle part of the race - and he may be better served by sharper tracks when taking on open company in his second season.
Navajo Pass had some useful form next to his name going into the contest and he ran about as well as could expected for a 50-1 chance. Keeping on well from two out to finish a creditable fourth, Donald McCain’s gelding just lacked the pace of the main players when required, leaving the impression he might be seen to better advantage over further and on even softer ground in the future. Having also shown some decent form on the Flat last season, he may be kept ticking over once racing returns and he will be an interesting contender in staying handicaps off his current mark of 85 should connections decide to go down that particular route.
Sir Psycho also gave the impression that the ground was too lively for him and his one-paced effort back in fifth was as about as good as he was on the day. Whether he has the quality to make it beyond a handicapper over hurdles remains to be seen, but it wouldn’t be the end of the world if he didn’t as he has the size and scope to do even better over fences. Although the four-year-olds do not receive the allowances they once did in the past, he hails from a stable that like to crack on with their potential chasers regardless and it would come as no surprise if the son of Zoffany is seen jumping fences sooner rather than later.
The Joseph O’Brien pair, Cerberus and A Wave Of The Sea ran okay without setting the world alight and considering they fought out the finish of the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown previously and would have both beaten Aspire Tower that day (fell at the last when headed), it was slightly disappointing that either could not uphold the form. In mitigation, both had endured pretty hard campaigns, so maybe their previous exploits just caught up with them on the day. Either way, both remain decent prospects and one would imagine they will pay their way in big-field handicaps.
Without doubt Solo was the biggest disappointment given the expectation surrounding him going into the race, but as most of the hype was an overreaction to his previous Kempton win, it wasn’t the biggest surprise in the world to us time figure merchants that he did underachieve. Despite being visually impressive at the Surrey venue, the numbers he posted that day suggested Paul Nicholls’ gelding wasn’t quite the second coming that many judges expressed in the post-race analysis and his 157 rating looked plain crazy once delving into the nuts and bolts of his performance compared to others on the rest of the card. Even his revised mark of 152 appears way too high for what he has achieved and it might well be that the son of Kapgarde is sent straight over fences to avoid getting battered against older and more experienced seasoned handicappers over hurdles.
The other big juvenile contest at the festival, The Boodles Handicap Hurdle, went the way of Aramix and he has the potential to continue his progression over hurdles next season. Improving with each start as the season developed, Gordon Elliott’s gelding arrived at Cheltenham with expectation levels very high and, having travelled well throughout, he justified the ante-post gamble in some style. Very strong in the finish, the son of Maxios went through the line suggesting he scored with more up his sleeve than the winning margin indicated and a rise of just 3lb subsequently doesn’t do his overall superiority over the field justice. Sure to be kept in handicaps for the near future as a result of that leniency, the lightly-raced four-year-old has the potential to do some serious damage off a mark of 141 and it would come as no surprise if he was targeted at some of the bigger pots associated with his yard and owner. One to follow.
Of those beaten on the day, runner-up, Night Edition, has to be afforded plenty of credit as being the only one to offer any resistance to the ready winner and he, too, can more than pay his way over hurdles next season. A smaller, nippier model, David Pipe’s gelding has now run extremely well on both his two visits to Cheltenham, so the obvious early-season target for him would be the Greatwood Hurdle in November. Beyond that, many similar handicaps should be well within his range and he also leaves the impression that better ground will suit.
