Andy Holding's Sunday Racing Tips

Siding with a five-race maiden in a handicap is usually a one-way ticket to the poor house, but JUMAIRA BAY (best price 11-5) is fancied to blow that theory high into the Yorkshire sky off what still appears to be a very lenient mark.

Runner-up to the vastly-improved Nugget (won off 92 at Newmarket on Friday) at Doncaster on his handicap debut a month ago, Roger Varian’s colt was sent back to Town Moor to contest a similarly hot contest which contained several potentially well-treated three-year-olds. Noted travelling well as the race began to heat up approaching the two-furlong pole, the son of Siyouni unfortunately hit a bit of a road block at this juncture and in being forced to take evasive action, he ended up not only losing valuable ground, but racing on the wrong part of the track. While he got tangled up in the wreckage, the likes of Tiger Crusade and Society Lion made their getaways over on the far side and although he made giant strides in his bid to erode the deficit late on, he ended up having to settle for a never-nearer third. Time-wise, the race 21 days ago pointed towards the main players running to a fair standard and with the fourth home, Intrinsic Bond, bolting up on his return to the Yorkshire venue yesterday, there’s more than a fair chance this imposing colt will follow suit provided he takes to the vagaries of the Knavesmire turf at the first time of asking.

MAGIC J (best price 5-2) impressed for many different reasons when scoring with any amount in hand at Sandown last time out and he looks in the sort of form to keep his upward curve going in the right direction.

Runner-up on his two previous outings, Ed Vaughan’s sprinter was well-backed in the build-up to his latest encounter and in what turned out to be a very strongly-run affair, he didn’t give his legion of supporters too many anxious moments. Picking up the running travelling well two out, the son of showed a smart turn of foot to leave his rivals for dead and it came as no surprise to find in the post-race analysis that he’d clocked a very smart time figure in the process. Moreover, he became one of the few horses in recent times to win racing on the dreaded far side rail on the straight track at the Esher venue and that’s another solid reason for thinking this four-year-old maybe a step or two ahead of his current mark. Obviously, he’s got to go and prove that today’s unique track is to his liking, but he clearly enjoys a stiff five-furlongs and, being a hold-up performer too, his run-style is likely to be well catered for at the Berkshire venue.

HALIMI (best price 8-1) is rather a victim of his own success as his consistent profile means the handicapper is unwilling to cut him any slack, but at the same time, he’s more than likely to run his race than most in a race of this nature and for that reason he makes plenty of each-way appeal at his morning odds.

A winner of a maiden here last year, Jim Bolger’s gelding has hardly every run a bad race since and his two subsequent victories in handicaps meant he soon climbed up the ranks. Second and third respectively in two of the season’s big premier middle-distance handicaps ended his campaign on a fine note and he’s carried on where he left off based on his two performance so far this term. A creditable third to Numerian and Sir Dragonet on his opening gambit, he finished a close-up fifth in the Nasrullah Handicap at Navan last time and with winner, Patrick Sarsfield, going on to score in pattern company next time out, it’s clear the son of Teofilo faced a stiff task in running close to his best form. Just as effective over today’s trip as he is over 1m4f, the four-year-old should provide his supporters with another healthy return in place markets at the very least.

Unless you’ve just parachuted in from Mars, every punter worth his salt knows how good the Queen Mary at the royal meeting was this year and having finished a creditable third in what turned out to be a stellar renewal, CAROLINE DALE (best price 7-2) rates a strong choice to confirm form with old rival Most Beautiful.

Although most fillies’ arriving at the Berkshire venue this season only had just the one run, the standard of the line-up based on their opening time figures suggested we were dealing with an above-average group and so it came to pass, as the race produced the sort of numbers which eclipsed every other two-year-old contest during the week by a country mile. To force home the point, not only has David Loughnane’s filly gone on to score since, but the likes of Happy Romance, Sardinia Sunset, Dickiedooda, and Star Of Emaraaty have all done their bit for the form and even though there will be many who will prepared to overlook her claims this afternoon based on the fact she was a 100-1 chance 36 days ago, that reasoning could well turn out to be misplaced. Now clearly, there’s more than a fair chance her main market rival, Most Beautiful, could easily improve for today’s extra furlong, but at the same time, there’s no reason why the daughter of Lethal Force won’t either, and in any case, there doesn’t appear to be any logic why there should be such a big discrepancy between them in the betting.

If there is one negative surrounding Caroline Dale’s chance it’s the fact she has rather worn her heart on her sleeve in each race up to now and horses who tend to race with the choke out just simply don’t get home trying to force the issue over today’s stiff track. Hopefully, Hollie Doyle will be fully aware of that situation (let’s face it every jockey in the weighing room with half a brain should know by now) and ride her accordingly, and if that does prove to be the case, she has the ability to provide her handler with his first every Ascot winner.

If the main selection doesn’t get given every chance to perform to her best, it would come as no surprise if David Loughnane’s other runner, SANTOSHA (best price 4-1) proves to be the fly in the ointment as she does have the run-style which ought to be well-suited by the nature of today’s track. Impressive despite being sent off 50-1 on debut, the daughter of Coulsty proved that victory was no fluke when running a blinder in the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket last time out and with the runner-up, Fever Rover, going on to boost the form subsequently, she has to be worth a cover bet of some description based on her effort at HQ.

Not much course form to go on here, which is normally the case with these straight track races at the Berkshire venue, so the best solution to this puzzle is simply go with the one who has the best run style for the demands of the stiff seven-furlongs and the one who jumps off the page is TIGER CRUSADE (NAP) (best price 5-2).

Getting horses to switch off and preserve energy for the all-important climb to the line is crucial to success here and that’s exactly how David Simcock’s inmate is likely to be ridden based on his display at Doncaster last time out. Returning to action after a 292-day layoff, the son of No Nay Never was settled nicely in the rear by Callum Shepherd and coming with a well-timed challenge going well two out, he then found plenty for pressure when it looked like he would succumb to the late thrust of the well-fancied Society Lion. Going on to score by a neck, he in turn with the runner-up pulled well clear of the rest which included last night’s easy Doncaster winner Intrinsic Bond and providing he’s ridden in identical fashion by this afternoon’s new pilot, Jim Crowley, this rapidly-improving and lightly-raced three-year-old can take another step forward up the ladder.