Andy Holding's Thursday Racing Tips

An absolute belter of a Lowther was so many potentially top-drawer fillies on show and of the largely unknown quantities unproven at this level, both UMM KULTHUM (best price 7-1) and NOORBAN (best price 12-1) made the sort of winning debuts to suggest they could be equal to the task.

The former was well-fancied to make winning start to her career at Thirsk 22 days ago and although she ultimately justified her position in the market, things didn’t look all that promising for her supporters at halfway. Scrubbed along with seemingly plenty to find, the daughter of Kodiac found a sparkling turn of foot inside the final furlong to overhaul the previously raced and form standard-bearer Digital close home and that performance has to go down as a perfectly satisfactory beginning. Additionally, her overall speed figure and sectionals compared very favourable to the other races on the eight-race card and with the fourth going on to score easily since, there’s already a bit of substance to the form. Likely to appreciate today’s extra furlong given the way she finished off her race at the Yorkshire track, hopefully her high draw doesn’t end up proving too much of an inconvenience.

The latter was also very strong in the backend of her opening bow at Beverley and she too, brings a touch of intrigue to proceedings. Well-touted beforehand at the Yorkshire track, David O’Meara’s filly had plenty on her plate at the halfway stage after being a bit sluggish in the early exchanges but once she found top gear and hit the rising ground, she fairly rattled home against the far rail to run out a decisive winner. Notably, the runner-up and third went on to fight out the finish of a similar heat back at the same track next time and considering how much size and scope she possesses, it would come as no surprise if she made a significant step forward following that initial outing. Make no mistake these are two very promising fillies based on their time figures and potential and they would have been advised to a much stronger degree had they not been drawn stall 13 and 14 respectively (middle looked the place to be yesterday).

CAPEL AT DAWN (best price 3-1) almost pulled off an impossible task at Galway last time out when third from the worst possible draw, but now back on a more level playing field, she gets the chance to gain compensation on ground that will suit her better than most.

Forced to take her medicine and race in the rear at Ballybrit, as a result, Joseph O’Brien’s filly wasn’t in the best place as the runners hurtled down the hill, but once she got out in the clear and met the rising ground, she picked up well to come with a storming run that carried her into a creditable podium finish at the line. Shaping as though the seven-furlong trip was also just a shade inadequate for her that day, the only other trip she raced over a mile on soft ground she ended up winning by three lengths at Naas earlier in the season and with conditions set to be fairly inclement at the Dublin venue her this afternoon, the bonny daughter of Dawn Approach is fancied to regain winning ways.

Devious Company sets the standard here with a rating of 107, but this might not turn out to be as easy as the numbers and betting suggests and he’s readily passed over in favour of TINOCHOI (best price 7-1) at the prices.

A big eye-catcher first time at Pontefract when making up loads of ground late on after a slow start, Kevin Ryan’s colt went to Hamilton with plenty of confidence behind him, and after breaking much cleaner than on his debut, he duly made no mistake. Quickening well in the closing stages, the son of Buratino clocked a fair time for novice stakes by the track standards and with the form going on to work out as well as anticipated subsequently, he clearly was ready for something a little more substantial. Sent to contest the Super Sprint at Newbury a month later, the chestnut colt ran an incredible race considering his position at the halfway stage (stall one meant he had to take back and lose loads of ground) and working on the theory that wherever Happy Romance finishes here this afternoon, this chap should be bang on the premises also, he rates a decent each-way proposition drawn right next to where all the pace is likely to develop.

Another who could easily punch above weight/rating is BILLIAN (best price 12-1) and with a nice draw down the middle, he also makes quite a bit of appeal at double-figure odds.

A promising third behind impressive winner Noorban (runs in the Lowther) at Beverley on debut, Bryan Smart’s colt was well-fancied to go two places better on his return visit a few weeks later and despite a troublesome wide draw, he came with a strong late run down the centre of the course to get up close home. Posting a big speed figure into the bargain, the son of Mehmas has now been involved in two strongly-run juvenile contests that should enable him to be at home under today’s likely sound tempo and with an extra furlong also likely to play into his strengths given how he’s finished off his races so far, he looks set to outrun his morning odds.

Interestingly, the pace held up on the round course here yesterday, so with the distinct likelihood of MONTATHAM (best price 15-2) being able to break well and hold a reasonable early position around the inside from stall two, he makes plenty of each-way appeal at his morning odds.

Impressive both visually and on the numbers when scoring with plenty in hand on his first start for 200 days at Newmarket back in June, William Haggas’ gelding was targeted at the Royal Hunt Cup just over a week later in a bid to take advantage of his wellbeing and handicap mark. Well-supported at the Berkshire venue despite being drawn on the wrong side of the track, the four-year-old ran a remarkable race considering the circumstances and if it wasn’t for the later thrust of the strong-stayer at the trip, Dark Vision, he would have carried off an unlikely success. Up again in the ratings as a result of his Herculean effort, the son of Showcasing gained revenge on his old rival at Sandown on his latest outing and with runner-up and several in behind him that day such as Via Serendipity and Gallipoli all boosting the form since, an extra 4lb hike can’t be described as overly harsh. Having plenty of solid form with plenty of cut in the ground, any further rain won’t harm his chance, and this classy and consistent performer at this level looks set to continue Jim Crowley’s golden summer.

PIN YOUR HOPES (best price 10-1) ended up being involved in a bit of racing history here last time out when third to the 300-1 outsider He Knows No Fear, but despite the shock, the speed figure for the race suggests it might not have been the fluke the betting would have us believe and Andrew Oliver’s colt is fancied to fly the flag for the maiden in question with distinction.

Third in another useful maiden the time before at Naas, the son of Rock Of Gibraltar was good deal shorter in the market a week ago, and although he couldn’t quite better his finishing position, he once again displayed plenty of ability and hope for the future. Keep on well in the closing stages without having the pace of the front two, he left the impression a slightly stiffer test will suit, and with cheekpieces on for the first time, today’s 1m1f affair on soft ground should prove spot on for this big, rangy unit.

MOON OVER GERMANY (best price 15-2) is very much the class act of this field and if he can repeat the level of performance which saw him finish a creditable sixth in last season’s County Hurdle, he should be going close to landing a race of this nature.

Although he’s rising ten shortly, Henry De Bromhead’s gelding is fairly low mileage for a nine-year-old and that preservation has meant that he’s been able to maintain a pretty useful and solid standard throughout his career. Just short of top class over fences – runner-up to Notebook in a Grade 2 his best performance – the flashy chestnut has a very lenient mark over hurdles compared to his chasing one and he went fairly close to exploiting it at the Cheltenham Festival. Leading on the run to the last at Prestbury Park, the son of Germany only succumbed to younger, fresher legs on the run-in, but even getting beaten 10 lengths in one of the hottest handicap hurdles of the entire season still represents a quality effort in every aspect. Amazingly 4lb lower in the ratings despite that valiant effort, he bids to pick himself off the canvas after dumping regular pilot Rachael Blackmore on the ground in the Galway Hurdle last time out and with conditions set to be right up his street, a big run looks on the cards.