Andy Holding's Saturday Racing Tips

Whether a horse misses the break by design or is just habitually slowly away, it usually pays to have one of those circumstances happen over the straight track here at Ascot and with the ESCAPE THE CITY (best price 16-1) often falling into the latter category, Hughie Morrison’s mare looks primed to run miles better than her morning odds imply if she does, indeed, fall out of the gates as per usual. 

Exhibiting her party trick for the umpteenth time at Sandown last time out, the daughter of Cityscape found herself right at the tail of the field as the runners swung for home two weeks ago, but in putting in a power-packed finish, she came from out of the clouds to claim an unlikely third close home. In doing so, the five-year-old managed to run the last four furlongs quicker than any other horse on the card from that point and considering her effort was achieved despite her being out of the handicap, her performance deserves extra praise. Moreover, she hails from a yard in spanking good form at present (27% strike rate) and now returning to the scene of one of her career-high efforts when third in the 2018 Sandringham Handicap off a 10lb higher mark, odds of 16-1 appear to seriously underestimate her chances.

RHYTHMIC INTENT (best price 4-1) still comes across as a horse with plenty more to offer in races of this nature and he rates a strong choice to keep his upwardly mobile profile going in the right direction. 

A creditable third in the hottest three-year-old staying handicap last season at Newmarket, Stuart Williams’ gelding has continued where he left off and other than one modest run which can be excused on account of unsuitable fast ground at Newmarket two runs ago, he’s done nothing but improve. Indeed, his latest victory at the expense of a competitive bunch of established handicappers at Newbury very much suggested he remains on the up and with today’s testing conditions also seen as a massive plus, a positive display looks likely to be forthcoming. 

How the draw pans out on the straight track here today remains to be seen but providing those on the far side (low numbers) aren’t too inconvenienced, both TAGGALO (best price 12-1) and BELLICK (best price 12-1) can have some sort of say in the final outcome. 

The former hasn’t yet managed to win a race but other than one excusable run on account of not facing the first-time blinkers, she’s done more than enough to suggest she can hold her own in races of this nature. A close-up third in a wildly-competitive handicap at the Curragh on her opening gambit of the season, the daughter of Tagula ran somewhere close to that level on her return to the Co Kildare venue last time out and with the second, third and fifth all going on to frank the form since, she gets the chance to race here off a surprisingly 4lb lower mark.

The latter does pop up every now and then but he’s also been thwarted too many times to mention by the draw in recent times, as he was last time out at Naas. On a day where the high drawn horses held a massive advantage, John McConnell’s gelding seemingly had little chance of making any impact being housed in stall three but despite racing on the slowest part of the track, he somehow managed to finish a close-up third. Having occupied the same position on his previous visit to today’s C&D back in June behind the well-treated Boughtinthedark, the son of Mayson looks in fair shape to play a prominent role.

A cracking middle-distance three-year-old handicap with many throwing their cap into the ring, and one of the most unexposed of the party who looks to have got in here very lightly is COCONUT (best price 16-1) and she’s worth a small shy at the stumps at double-figure quotes. 

A late-maturing type who didn’t race until this June, Ed Walker’s filly has steadily progressed with each run and her four performances culminated with a breakthrough success at Newbury last time out. Stepping up to 1m4f for the first time, the daughter of Australia really appeared to relish the test that was presented to her at the Berkshire track and having gone into that contest rated 85, it was rather a surprise to see her come out the other side on the same mark. A filly that relaxes well in her races, hopefully she will get given a similar midfield-sit ride to what she’s adopted so far to date and if so, her stamina can kick in towards the backend of the contest. Of those down the front end of the market, the ever-consistent Kipps looks sure to run a big race given his body of work in similar races this season and a favourable mention also goes in the direction of My Frankel, who beat several well-touted colts at Kempton last time out with a performance of some quality. 

Quite a few of these have some fair C&D form to their names, none more so than TIDE OF TIME (best price 11-2) and he’s fancied to have some sort of say in the final outcome returning to the scene of most of his best career efforts.

A three-time winner over the stiff five-furlongs at the Co Meath venue, Edward Lynam’s gelding ran encouragingly well away from his happy hunting ground at Cork last time out, finishing his race off well to grab second behind the all-the-way winner, Principalship. Drawn away from the pace that day, he probably ran a good deal better than the bare form suggests and with the distinct likelihood of another strongly-run contest taking place with his old rival, My Laurette and A Step Too Far being in the line-up and all wanting to crack on with their work, things should set up nicely for the son of Choisir who enjoys stalking and pouncing off honest fractions. 

There are several jockeys in the weighing that simply understand how to ride Ascot’s straight track, and with Hayley Turner being one of the best around at executing patient waiting tactics at this venue, she’s strongly fancied to keep her good association with VIA SERENDIPITY (NAP) (best price 5-1) on a high. 

A smart handicapper on his day for Stuart Williams, mainly on an all-weather surface (rated 108 as his best), the son of Invincible Spirit was having his first start from his new base here 28 days ago and as things turned out, he turned what looked competitive little handicap on paper into a rout. Dropped right out the back by his accomplished pilot, the six-year-old was noted going easily as the field flashed passed the halfway stage and then when he was asked to pick up inside the final two furlongs, he found a sparkling turn of foot to pull right away from his eight rivals. In doing so, Charlie Fellows’ gelding ended up posting an extremely fast time figure – easily a career best – and based on those findings, it’s clear he’s undergone a new lease of life since joining his new surroundings. Although most of his best form has been over a mile, the way he travelled at the Berkshire venue strongly suggests he will be equally at home over shorter and having gone well in many similar races to the one he faces this afternoon, a massive run looks on the cards with anything like a clear run from the back of the field.