Andy Holding's Saturday Racing Tips

Some big reputations on the line in this Group 2 prize, none more so than Albasheer, who was impressive when making a winning debut over today’s C&D 49 days ago, but it’s debatably whether he even has the best form over Chindit, who’s Ascot win is working out incredibly well. Either way, both will no doubt have their supporters but whether either scream at you value is open to question, whereas STATE OF REST (best price 16-1) for some reason appears to have been completely overlooked by the bookmakers despite having extremely strong form credentials in his own right. 

A tidy winner on debut at Fairyhouse, things haven’t quite panned out for Joseph O’Brien’s colt in three subsequent tries, but that doesn’t mean to say he hasn’t shaped without significant promise. Undone by poor track positions and the short home straight at Leopardstown twice, he then went to Naas last time to contest the valuable Ballyhane Stakes and in a race that was a pattern-contest all bar name, he once again caught the eye. On a day where the straight track at the Co Kildare venue very much favoured low-drawn horses, stall seven ended up being no use to the son of Starspangledbanner and even though he eventually came towards the nearside fence, he lost all chance of making an impact in doing so. The way he finished off his race, however, strongly suggested he would have done close with anything like a fair rub of the green and with today’s galloping track over an extra furlongs almost certain to suit, he nice patient ride can see him pick up some valuable pieces late on.

At first glance, it would appear connections of KEEPER OF TIME (best price 100-1) have totally lost their marbles running the daughter of Mehmas in a listed race following just one run when mid-division in a maiden at the Curragh, but a closer inspection of that promising effort at the Co Kildare venue suggests they are fully entitled to live the dream and have a crack at pulling off a massive shock. 

Sent off 100-1 in what looked a strong field of juveniles 21 days ago, Johhny Levins’ filly had her back firmly against the wall before a ball was kicked after being handed a low draw and to make matters worse she dwelt in the stalls to give herself an even bigger mountain to climb. Settling towards the rear, however, she did pick up in taking fashion once the penny began to drop after halfway and by the time she’d hit the line, she’d ticked off plenty of useful scalps in finishing full of running. Although it’s early days yet, the race in question is beginning to look strong form with the runner-up, third and tenth winning, not to mention the fifth being second in a Group 3, and with the distinct likelihood of a good deal more to come with that initial experience under her belt, it would come as no surprise if she didn’t take a huge leap forward. Whether her expected progress will prove good enough to allow her to feature in a race of this nature only time will tell, but either way, at a whopping 100-1, it’s not as if we have to take a huge premium to find out. 

MIRANN (best price 9-2) has almost pulled off the impossible having been set very stiff tasks on his last two starts and on the evidence of both those performances, he looks poised to finally strike and land the big pot his endeavours deserve. A cosy winner first time out at Gowran despite the trip being on the short side, Johhny Murtagh’s gelding was stepped up to a distance more in-keeping with his profile at the Curragh next time out and in what turned out to be a well-run affair, he ended up being given far too much to do. Handed a bad draw at Dundalk when again tackling an inadequate test, the son of Motivator almost pulled off an unlikely win out of the fire coming from last place to end up finishing a close-up third against proper all-weather specialist but at least that effort should set him up nicely for a tilt at today’s prize. based on all known form he’s shown so far to date, 1m4f would appear to be his optimum and hailing from a yard who continue to thrive, the four-year-old has enough class to defy top weight.

Some heavy hitters on show for this quality-looking Group 2 and despite being the lowest rated of the entire field, BREATHTAKING LOOK (best price 14-1) rates a sporting choice to give it a good go at this level. 

A big, brute of a mare, Stuart Williams’ inmate first sprung to prominence when capturing the Group 3 Sceptre Stakes over today’s C&D at this meeting last year and since then she’s more than held her own against useful company. Only going under a length to July Cup hero Oxted on her opening gambit of the season, the daughter of Bated Breath got her due rewards for several fine placed efforts with a victory at Deauville last time out and considering the conditions at the French venue was far-from ideal, her performances goes some way to indicate her current frame of mind. Although she has made the running in the past, with Marie’s Diamond and Shine So Bright in the line-up it would be churlish not to take up the offer of being able to get a nice tow in behind that pair and if so, she has a better chance than her morning odds suggest of causing an upset – certainly based on some of her previous times figures. 

A stellar-looking line-up for the world’s oldest Classic and it would come as no surprise if the name O’Brien was etched on the side of the trophy once again, but this time not necessarily with Aidan, but with son Joseph as he saddles the hugely talented, yet unexposed GALILEO CHROME (NAP) (best price 4-1) to gallop for glory. 

Little did we know at the time, but his victory in a maiden at the Curragh would be so significant, as he had in behind him that day subsequent Derby winner, Serpentine, and albeit his easy success at Leopardstown gave out the sort of signals that he could be a future star in the making, it wasn’t until we witnessed him brush aside a smart field at Navan last time out that we realised just how good was. Always travelling easily at the Co Meath venue, the son of Australia found a nice turn of foot given the conditions to pull readily clear of solid markers Emperor Of The Sun and Red Kelly and with the speed figure screaming out loud and clear that he’d run to a very high standard, it’s little wonder connections have supplemented him here rather than stay on home soil and tackle the Irish equivalent. The only negative, if there is one, arrives from the fact his regular pilot Shane Crosse has to miss the gig due to a failed COVID-19 test but hopefully able replacement Tom Marquand will have the instructions to drop his mount out early from his wide post and bring the strapping colt with an irresistible run down the long home straight. 

There may be some classier races on this amazing card at the Dublin venue, but for this writer this is easily the best of the day by some way in terms of quality and depth and despite fully recognising that Tiger Moth is the one to beat based on his Irish Derby form, both PATRICK SARSFIELD (best price 4-1) and RED KELLY (best price 16-1) are good enough to have a good crack at Aidan O’Brien’s star. 

The former has improved at a rapid rate of knots this season and latest effort at Munich proved that he belonged in Group 1 company. Staying on well at the German venue, Joseph O’Brien’s gelding also left the impression he might want a little further than the 1m2f he’s been tackling for most of the career and it’s certainly an experiment worth chancing. Moreover, he goes particularly well at today’s track, likes good ground and has a nice low draw, so there are plenty of things in his favour before the trip becomes an issue. 

The latter got beat by a very good horse last time out in the shape of Galileo Chrome but even allowing for a five-length defeat, the numbers suggested he’d easily run to a career high. Considering the ground wouldn’t have been ideal at the Co Meath venue, his effort deserves extra praise and having already proven his liking for today’s track twice over, Johnny Murtagh’s colt looks set to outrun his odds.

BREAKING STORY (best price 10-1) travelled like the best horse in the Irish Cambridgeshire until not quite getting home over the stiff mile on testing ground, but Sheila Lavery’s gelding should find today’s furlong less on better ground far more suitable and he looks a big price considering his overall profile. 

Unlucky in virtually every start this season leading up to the Curragh on account of the draw, the son of Dandy Man finally got a chance to show what he’s about in that big-field handicap 15 days and he didn’t disappoint. Looking likely to win a furlong out, the four-year-old just couldn’t quite see off the likes of Laughifuwant and Quizical late on, but his performance still has to go down as a praiseworthy one on ground that was extremely punishing. A real sweet mover with a nice turn of foot, he should turn out to be ideally suited by today’s track and trip and providing he gets the breaks at the right time, he’s strongly fancied to be right in the thick of the action.

The same trainer has a strong hand as she also sends PRINCE OF NAPLES (best price 16-1) to post who has always looked like there’s a big pot in him one day. Looking as though the run was badly needed on his first outing of the season when third in a listed contest of today’s C&D, the son of Holy Roman Emperor travelled equally as well in a better race at Naas last time out until finding the soft ground against him late on. Hopefully, he should find his first foray into handicap company far more palatable and he’s just too good to resist at the morning odds.