Horse racing expert Andy Holding has two tips for the Melbourne Cup.
04:00 Flemington
Australia’s sporting version of the Grand National, certainly in terms of popularity with the betting public, has been largely wrestled away from the locals in recent times, but there’s a decent chance the 2million dollar prize will stay on home soil in the shape of SURPRISE BABY (best price 8-1).
Trained specifically for this race last season, unfortunately, the six-year-old went and bagged one of the outside gates and, as a result, he was dropped out early and left with a mountain to climb by halfway. Making up steady ground throughout the final half a mile, the son of Shocking, however, made up a tremendous amount of ground late on to finish a never nearer fifth and with that eye-catching effort, connections have been no doubt dead-set on returning this season in order to make up for their misfortune. Once again, using a couple of races over inadequate trips just to keep him ticking over without asking him to completely show his hand, Paul Preusker’s gelding arrives here following a nice effort in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes over today’s track. Keeping on pleasingly in the latter stages to get within two lengths of the main players, he finished his race full of running and with that display likely to have brought him towards peak fitness, a huge run looks on the cards from his much more favourable draw this time around in barrier seven.
As ever, there is plenty of strong representation from the raiders, with the likes of Anthony Van Dyke, Tiger Moth and a couple from Joseph O’Brien’s stable all with decent prospects if they stay the trip, but it may well be that old PRINCE OF ARRAN (best price 10-1) who proves the best of the ‘away’ team. Third in this race two years ago behind Cross Counter, Charlie Fellows’ stalwart came back twelve months later in a bid to capture the sought-after prize and if it wasn’t for the agonising late lunge of Vow And Declare, he would have given himself and his connections a well-deserved massive payday for all his valiant endeavours across the globe. A horse right on top of his game despite his advancing years on the evidence of most recent outing in the Caufield Cup when he came from a mile back to finish a close-up fourth, his preparation couldn’t have gone any smoother and he should be capable of another bold show from a ground-saving run around the inside. The ex-Aidan O’Brien-trained Sir Dragonet is another one to consider, winning the Cox Plate in very smooth fashion on his first start for new connections, it’s a just a question of whether he can run to a similar level up a full six-furlongs in distance.
