Horse racing expert Andy Holding gives his analysis and betting preview of the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury.
Betfair Hurdle - Newbury
A race with a rich tradition and it’s one that will always be known as the Tote Gold Trophy to us old fogies. You only have to look at the roll of honour to see what kind of horse takes this valuable contest and it’s often been a stepping-stone towards even bigger prizes further down the line as the likes of Large Action, Mysilv, Make A Stand, Decoupage, Spirit Leader, Get Me Out Of Here, My Tent Or Yours, and most recently, Kalashnikov have all proven. Looking at some of those names and there’s also a distinct pattern that has developed over the years, as other than a handful, it often goes to a lightly-raced second season hurdler with a touch of class. Indeed, you have to go back to 2004 when Geos triumphed, to find a winner not aged seven or younger, with the last 14 all five and six-year-olds.
The obvious starting point when looking at the list for this year’s renewal is recent Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle winner, Metier. His victory in the Sandown mud marked him down as one of the season’s leading two-mile novices and he thoroughly deserves his place towards the forefront of the Supreme Novices’ hurdle based on his time figure he posted that day and his overall levels of form. Now rated 149 as a result, connections may ponder on the fact My Tent Or Yours won this race off the same mark back in 2013 before going on to finish runner-up at Cheltenham, but whether Harry Fry’s gelding is allowed to follow suit is very much up in the air based on recent press clippings.
Dan Skelton has three quality novices entered, Cadzand, Third Time Lucki and Faivoir and of the trio, the former is the one most likely to take his chance. Impressive at Kempton last time out when tackling handicap company for the first time, he has the sort of cruising speed that will always make him a consideration in these, big-field, well-run affairs and a good run should be forthcoming from this County Hurdle aspirant.
A trainer who has won this race with a novice before is Jonjo O’Neill (Get Me Out Of Here in 2010) and the Gloucestershire handler has a live chance this season with SOARING GLORY (best price 12-1). Useful in bumpers last season, the son of Fame And Glory has taken really well to his new vocation and a victory over subsequent Grade 1 Challow Hurdle hero, Bravemansgame, at Chepstow first time out this term was a cracking starting point. Unlucky to bump into the potentially very smart Dusart at Newbury next time, at least he familiarised himself with the Berkshire venue that day, and following an untimely tumble with the race at his mercy at Wetherby later in the month, he got back on track with a decent effort behind My Drogo in a Grade 2 at Ascot on his latest start. On each of his four starts over hurdles, the six-year-old has run to a level to suggest his current rating of 133 probably underestimates his capabilities and being blessed with a cruising speed tailor made for these big-field handicaps, a big run looks on the cards from the foot of the weights.
Although slightly older than ideal, SHAKEM UP’ARRY (best price 20-1) is another who makes plenty of appeal on several other counts and he simply has to be on the shortlist at his current price. Runner-up on his two previous visits to the Berkshire venue last year, latterly against the mighty Shishkin, Ben Pauling’s gelding has gone from strength-to-strength in his second season over hurdles and his latest performance in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle has to go down as a pretty commendable one under the circumstances. Setting a strong pace from the start at the Esher track, the son of Flemensfirth was the one largely responsible for the very fast time figure and even though he couldn’t go with the eventual very smart winner in the closing stages, he did keep on stoically to finish well clear of the rest. Although seen as a chaser for next season, the well-made seven-year-old does jump hurdles particularly well and having proven to be well-suited by flat, galloping left-handed tracks in the past, conditions should be ideal in a week’s time for him to run to maximum capacity.
