Cheltenham Tips: Andy Holding’s Tuesday Racing Tips

The first two races on day one of the festival, classy events though they are, make very little appeal as betting mediums due to their field sizes and general lack of competitiveness, but the same can’t be said for the rest of the card and the first port of call is this 3m1f handicap, where HAPPYGOLUCKY (best price 10-3) looks to have standout claims.

Firstly, the recent trends point heavily in his direction being a lightly-raced novice (10 of last 12 all either novices or second season chasers), in the right age group (only one of the last eight winners older than eight), having previous Cheltenham form (seven of last eight) and has also run at the track this season (all of the last six).

Secondly, this looks to have been a carefully hatched plan by connections having put the son of Jeremy away since winning impressively here on the New Course in December. Looking back at his performance 95 days ago, the feature of his display was the way he attacked his fences and although it was only a small field, the overall pace was good enough to produce a fine speed figure from a novice seemingly going places over fences. Good on the numbers also when making a winning chasing debut at Stratford back in October, his only blip came when he just found the sharp nature of the track at Fakenham catching him out next time - although getting beaten by the useful Getaway Trump can hardly be described as a crime. Fourth in the hugely competitive boys’ race at last year’s festival, he would have finished a good deal closer had he not been badly hampered by the fall of Column Of Fire at the last and having trod a similar path on that occasion – being off the track for three months prior – it’s clear he goes well fresh. Likely to receive a positive ride from a jockey whose ability to see a stride and gain lengths on the vast majority of his mounts so far this season has enabled him to take his game to another level, hopefully Kim Bailey’s gelding can get into a good early rhythm because he certainly has all the right attributes and class to win a race of this nature with a trouble-free passage.

Having already advised Abacadabras for the Champion Hurdle this time last year, it’s good to see him arrive here in one piece and with a puncher’s chance in a race which should be run to suit. For those that are not already involved, there could be worse each-way bets in the race as the ground is unlikely to be as bad as it was last year for Denise Foster’s gelding and based on his run behind Shishkin in the Supreme, he hasn’t got too much to find based on the numbers compared to the Champion Hurdle on the same card.

Looking at the race from a purely fresh perspective, however, the one who appears overpriced based on some of his better performances at Grade 1 level is SHARJAH (best price 10-1).

It’s been well documented how Willie Mullins’ gelding seemingly goes slightly off the boil post-Christmas, but that stat didn’t stop him running an absolute blinder in this race last season. Held up towards the rear of the field in traditional fashion, the son of Doctor Dino was produced with a well-timed challenge to have every chance at the last, but in the end, the exertions of having to go passed virtually the whole field in the hottest part of the race took its toll and he couldn’t quite go with the more prominently-ridden winner, Epatente, up the hill. That said, he still managed to pull well clear

of the rest and considering the heavy ground would have been far from ideal also, his effort can be seriously upgraded. Imperious for the third time in succession in the Grade 1 Matheson Hurdle at Leopardstown over the Christmas period, the eight-year-old posted a career-high speed figure in beating all the best Irish two-milers all bar Honeysuckle and his display once again proved that on his day and under the right conditions, he’s a match for anything in this division. Not for the first time, Sharjah failed to replicate the same levels of form when back at the Dublin venue two months later but, as galloping nature of the track is always at its widest at that meeting, it’s little surprise he was way below his best behind the impressive Honeysuckle. However, the tight Old Course here today clearly suits him better and with a smaller field than last year meaning he shouldn’t be as far behind at halfway, it’s easy to see this strong-travelling type arriving there approaching the last with all guns blazing.

Concertista was easily the most impressive winner of the entire festival last season and she’s strongly fancied to confirm she’s the best of her sex over this trip one year on. She has, however, been priced up accordingly, so the wisest move might be to play in the ‘without the favourite’ market on this occasion and the one who makes the most appeal at the prices is BLACK TEARS (best price 6-1).

Similar to her main market rival, Denise Foster’s charge comes alive at the festival, and following her gallant fourth in the mares’ novices’ contest two years ago, she performed to an even higher standard twelve months on when chasing home the well-handicapped Dame De Compagne in the ultra-competitive Coral Cup. In-keeping with her profile, the daughter of Jeremy needed her first two outings of the season, but she looked to be back on song on the evidence of her latest effort at Punchestown when she quickened right away from her four opponents to land a Grade 3 prize. Clocking a smart figure at the Co Kildare venue despite the small field, it’s good to see the form already work out well with the third home, Darrens Hope, winning at Limerick on Sunday and, having not received too hard a race from that confident-boosting win, she arrives here with an air of confidence surrounding her wellbeing.

Of her opposition, Dame De Compagnie arrives her off the back of a fall over fences, which can’t be ideal, and it’s also worth pointing out that despite Roksana’s solid form this term, she did run moderately in this race last season for no obvious reason. Minella Melody finished one place ahead of Black Tears at Leopardstown last time out but also ran poorly at last year’s festival, while Great White Shark got battered at Gowran last time out, and Indefatigable has had issues with her wind.

Using Zanahiyr and Quilixios as a guide – certainly based on pure time figures – it’s safe to say the Irish juveniles appear to be a useful crop this season, and having run well against both of those two in the past, it makes perfect sense to look towards BUSSELTON (best price 17-2) to provide his handler with his second victory in this competitive contest in recent years.

Leaving old connections in France to join up with his new Irish base after a win Auteuil in May, Joseph O’Brien’s gelding was pitched into the white-hot heat of a Grade 2 at Leopardstown over the Christmas period and despite his lack of fitness having been off the track for 223 days and quality of the opponents he faced, he still managed to come out of the race with great credit. No match for

Zanahiyr from the back of the last, the son of Mastercraftsman kept on in willing fashion to pull clear of the rest and it’s worth pointing out he had two of his chief rivals, Saint Sam and Druid’s Altar, in behind him that day. Raised in grade when tackling the Spring Juvenile Hurdle back at the same track last time out, he was unable to confirm form with his old rival when a one-pace third behind big Triumph Hurdle fancy Quilixios but, as the time figure pointed very favourably in the direction of the juvenile race compared to the one won by Appreciate It over the same C&D, he still comes out well in the contest of today’s race. Connections might have considered going for the Triumph, but a fair opening mark of 135 has made their decision an easy one and with the general feeling coming from within his camp that he raced quite lazily throughout his latest encounter, it comes as little surprise to see cheekpieces go on for the first time in a bid to avoid any mid-race crisis.

It goes without saying, there looks to be a whole host of dangers in a race of this complex nature and Saint Sam has to be chief among them. Keeping on well in the Grade 1 at Leopardstown despite racing exuberantly throughout, he will be a big player if the first-time hood has the pacifying effect. Riviere D’etel is another who can race a little keen and she will need to settle better than she did at Navan last time out, but she does come out well on the speed figures and hails from a yard that has a fine record in this race over the years.

A race that has gone up in stature in recent times, outlined by the fact 10 of the last 11 winners had all contested a Graded race previously, and one of several runners who fits neatly into that category is REMASTERED (best price 15-2) courtesy of his victory in the Reynoldstown at Ascot last time out.

Useful but nothing flashy over hurdles, David Pipe’s gelding has really come of age since switching his attentions to fences and he arrives here with a 3-3 unbeaten record. On his most recently outing 24 days ago, the son of Network turned in by far and away his best performance of his career by galloping his five opponents into the ground and with the feature of that display being his slick jumping at speed, that trait should stand him good stead in a race of this nature. Off a mark of 146, he would have been a major player in the Ultima Handicap earlier on the card, but connections clearly see this race as a better opportunity and he deserves to be backed accordingly at the current prices.