Architect Tips Thursday Racing Tips

This looks a weak Handicap Hurdle and, with the four places on offer, the Kim Bailey-trained FUBAR (best price 8-1) represents decent each-way value having ran well to finish runner-up three times last year off higher marks and should be able to make an impact here. 

The seven-year-old has been disappointing the last two or three times but had been racing over 2m5f+ of late in which he clearly failed to stay. Having said that, the drop back to today’s minimum distance should suit this horse, who likes to race prominently and it was only last year that we saw him rattle the crossbar three times from marks of 107, 108 and 109, including when chasing home the 136-rated Brandon Castle which is undeniably the strongest form on display. A few of today’s rivals are open to more improvement but Kim Bailey’s charge has valuable experience in deeper company and, in the likelihood David Bass can seize the initiative and grab an early lead on his mount, there’s every chance we will see him very competitive in this weaker grade. 
 

Song Of The Isles heads the market here but I’m not sure why he’s so short in the betting in comparison to EMBOLDEN (best price 13-2), who doesn’t have much to find with the favourite and has excellent each-way prospects in this wide-open event. 

He did plenty wrong when only three-lengths behind the favourite when the pair fought out first and second at Leicester on heavy ground in which he was giving the winner fourteen-pounds. On today’s terms, the four-year-old gets an eleven-pound pull in the weights and has his favoured soft ground which has yielded his best performances so there should be little between them here. He’s evidently plummeted down the weights following three below-par efforts on the all-weather so has something to prove in that regard but has become well-handicapped as a result and the return to the turf at this level could be the catalyst for a return to form.

JOHNNY ESTELLA (best price 4-1) has been burdened with top-weight here but he could be the class act of this field and is taken to make a successful handicap debut.

He is very well handicapped on a mark of 62 for handicap debut with Hayley Turner in the saddle, who rode him to finish third on his penultimate outing. This son of No Nay Never shaped a lot better than the result suggested at Doncaster when last seen and showed distinct signs of promise, while leaving the impression that he would come on significantly for the run. His earlier third at Chelmsford under today’s rider looks the best piece of form, though, given the first and second from that event are now rated 77 and 79 respectively. To put that into perspective, today’s opposition are rated no higher than 58 and, on the assumption he handles the ground, Charlie Fellowes’ charge, he should have more to offer and looks a leading contender with a strong chance of opening his account.

An interesting staying event in which I’m going to take a chance on handicap debutant, GOING GONE (best price 13-2), who is tied in closely with a few of those shorter than him in the betting and has seemingly been underestimated by most bookmakers here.

He has largely performed well in placing in all three starts in his career and one key aspect of his chance this evening is the ground as he’s proven himself to be effective in underfoot conditions, where he returned a good third on debut on heavy ground and shaped as though he would stay a lot further in time. His second to Golden Flame off level-weights, beaten five-lengths, was another highly-respectable effort and given the winner followed-up at Chelmsford next-time-out when beating Pied Piper and Local Law, this three-year-old has to come into the reckoning at the weights. His latest second to the promising Stowell was another fine effort as he continues his upward curve of form and, although this race will prove a much sterner test to his credentials, the step up in distance allied with the softish conditions should prompt improvement and he could run better than his current price suggests.