Andy Holding's Saturday Racing Tips

The race won by Patient Dream here at the previous meeting couldn’t have worked out any better, so there’s little doubt Ralph Beckett’s gelding will prove popular, but whether he quite has the ability to beat KING FRANKEL (NAP) (best price 9-4), who was runner-up in one of the best three-year-old handicaps run all season, is open to question.

Unlucky to bump into the highly-regarded Trawlerman (ran in a Group 3 next time) on his seasonal debut at Pontefract back in April, Mark Johnston’s colt made no mistake on his return to the Yorkshire venue, running out a ready 32 length winner. Pitched into handicap company for the first time at Newbury a month later, it appeared the son of Frankel had been handed a workable mark of 82, but little did he know he was up against a horse in the shape of Bay Bridge who could easily make up into a Group 1 performer further down the line. Despite being well held by the winner, the substantially-built three-year-old kept on willingly all the way to the line and even in getting beat by four lengths, he still ended up posting a very fast speed figure in his own right. Indeed, even the backend sectionals from that well-run affair stacked up well against races won by Al Aasy and Palace Pier, so to come out of that contest only being raised 6lb in the ratings has to be considered as a bit of a touch. Adaptable under most conditions (has won on good-to-firm and handled heavy), he’s likely to prove hard to beat if he handles today’s undulating track.

RODRIGO DIAZ (best price 11-8) was fully entitled to need his first outing after a 234-day break at Newmarket a month ago and with that all-important run under his belt hopefully bringing him forward both mentally and physically, David Simcock’s gelding looks set to continue on the winning trail.

A money-spinner for connections on the all-weather during the Autumn period last season, the son of Golden Horn impressed with the way he went through his races and it was shame we didn’t get to see him after he completed his hat trick at Wolverhampton due to consistent period of soft ground. Put away for the winter to strengthen and develop, he looked to have done particular well on first glance at HQ and he once again impressed with the way he went through the well-run contest. Unfortunately, he did manage to bump into the well-handicapped Aaddeey who proved too strong in the latter stages, but his performance still represented a step in the right direction and today’s track should suit the way he likes to be held up before being delivered late.

OZ LEGEND (best price 9-4) proved no match for the likes of Bay Bridge and King Frankel in an ultra-hot handicap at Newbury last time out, but as today’s contest looks a damn sight easier in every aspect, Hugo Palmer’s colt rates a good bet to take advantage of a drop in class.

In hindsight, trying to go with the strong early pace set by Greystoke at the Berkshire venue wasn’t ideal, but as he ended up being best of those who raced handily, his performance deserves extra merit. Prior to the that excellent effort, the son of Australia had shaped well behind a Godolphin colt who looks sure to be Royal Ascot bound, so for his mark of 82 to be unaffected after both performances has to be considered a shade on the lenient side. Racing over a track today where a patient ride on the round course is usually beneficial, hopefully Callum Shepherd takes his time and allows the likes of Blu Boy and Maiden Castle to do their own thing up front and if so, this potentially well-treated colt can come through in the latter stages and deliver a knockout blow.

Unlike in many previous renewals, Ballydoyle are represented by just the sole runner in the shape of hot ante-post favourite Bolshoi Ballet and with good, solid substance behind both of his two victories so far this season – particularly his Derrinstown win – as the market suggests, he’s very much the most likely winner of this year’s Derby.

Whether he’s the best bet of the century at 11-8, however, is open to question and there does appear to be several overlooked despite having equally compelling cases, most notably THIRD REALM (best price 14-1).

Although promising on his only start as a juvenile, his fifth of 14 finish behind Lord Protector on the all-weather at Kempton hardly had too many bookie reps running for cover in the stampede to back him for the Epsom Classic, but what he’s done this season has meant he’s a good deal more respected by the layers and punters alike. A smooth winner of a useful maiden at Nottingham on his opening bow when he showed a good turn of foot in the latter stages, Roger Varian’s colt was sent to the Lingfield Derby trial to see whether he warranted a place in this year’s blue riband and on the evidence of what we saw at the Surrey venue, he’s not here just to make up the numbers. In proving he handled the undulating home turn better than his rivals 28 days ago, the son of Sea The Stars also had the requisite stamina to keep some well-regarded types at bay and with the time figure backing up the visual impression of the performance, he has a fair chance of emulating several previous winners of that race who have doubled-up in recent times. Whichever way you strip it down, this well-balanced colt looks overpriced at 14-1 and makes plenty of each-way appeal with some firms offering four and even five places. Of those at even bigger odds, Adayar, who chased home Third Realm at Lingfield, comes into the equation on account of the rain falling in the last 24 hours and could easily sneak a place at 40-1 or bigger (on the exchanges) and even the outsider of the field, Mojo Star, can be given a chance of sorts at a whopping 150-1 based on his promising comeback effort behind subsequent easy all-weather winner, Manobo.