Architect Thursday Racing Tips

View profit and loss, tipster profiles and get notifications when articles go live on the free oddschecker app. Download it here.

The opening race at Chelmsford, the tote Placepot Your First Bet Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes, looks a strange one in regards to the formed market as I’m not quite sure why MALORIE (best price 22-1) is so high in the betting in comparison to the favourite, Under Oath, who was behind the latter on debut and is fancied to improve on that showing, confirm that form and produce an even bigger impact at the Essex venue. 

Andrew Balding’s filly clearly had things go wrong for her on debut at Newmarket but, even so, Marco Botti’s MALORIE firmly had her in behind by over a length-and-a-half and did plenty wrong herself. She took a strong hold that day but travelled nicely and kept on under a tentative ride to be a never-nearer sixth at the end. The horse she was upsides at the finish in fifth ran well next time to finish third so there’s no reason why this filly by the high-class Churchill can’t improve, either. The hood has been applied and, although she needs to find more to make a serious impact, she’s drawn well in stall two and with her trainer in good form, who has his only runner of the day, she’ll evidently find this easier having been highly tried at HQ last time and appeals most at the expected prices. 

Trainer Rod Millman has his team in superb form at present, operating at an outstanding 35% strike-rate in the last fourteen days, and with that taken into account, his only runner on the card HURRICANE HELEN (best price 9-2) has to be considered. 

It was only a classified event she won at Bath on her penultimate outing, but she dominated the event in terrific style and did little wrong when bumping into an improver who was completely a hat-trick. She has been put up a pound for that effort in defeat but this looks a weaker race on paper and, given the form she’s in at the moment, which can’t be said about most of the remainder, this looks an excellent opportunity for her to be very competitive and continue her trend of improvement for her trainer, who can do no wrong of late and also has a healthy 18% strike-rate overall at this venue in the past five years. 

The top-weight IVADREAM (best price 11-2) has winning form over a variety of distances and went close here three weeks ago over a slightly shorter distance from this mark. In addition, he’s two-pound below his last winning mark in which he beat a horse rated 72, which is the strongest form on display.

His first attempt over a mile saw him finish a creditable fourth from a four-pound higher mark, where he was slowly away from the gates but surged home to be nearest the finish. He then ran equally as well when fifth back there in a class-5 next time, keeping on steadily despite the race not being run to suit. His latest third here was unlucky, though, as he did all of his best work at the finish and probably would have won in another few strides, so it’s no surprise to see a return to a mile in this grade. Trainer Roger Charlton has his team in decent form and, despite being burdened with top-weight, everything looks in place for him to have a huge say in the argument from an unchanged mark with four places widely on offer. 

An open-looking small-field nursery with marginal preference for the Kevin Ryan-trained MAKALU (best price 4-1) who won with much more in hand than the margin suggested when last spotted and, with an opening mark of 73 on handicap debut looking within range on the balance of his form alongside Oisin McSweeney’s seven-pound claim taken into account, he gets the vote to oblige again. 

His first task, when sent off second-favourite for an intriguing Conditions Stakes at Doncaster on debut, was a satisfying introduction. He dwelt out of the stalls but showed a distinct finishing-kick to finish third and that form entitles him to the utmost respect here for more reasons than one. For instance, the race has produced multiple winners since, as the winner, Chipotle, subsequently claimed the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot, while the fourth, Vintage Clarets, ran a cracker to finish third in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at the Royal Meeting, too. He wasn’t able to replicate that form in two starts since, but responded well this riders persistence to get the job done last time and connections have saved him for the right race since. He’s up against improvers such as Grifter, Matty Too and Mackenzie Rose, but with plenty of optimism that he will get this longer trip, more success could be on the cards. 

JESSICA RABBIT (best price 9-2) has often found it difficult getting her head in front, given her record of 1-21 over hurdles, but she’s unbelievably consistent and, having placed in all of her last eight starts, it’s difficult to see her not putting up another bold display in this moderate event with Kielan Woods back in the plate. 

Graeme McPherson’s mare hardly knows how to run a bad race and finally came good at Doncaster in February, before producing a sequence of placed efforts, including when finding only one too good at Worcester and Bangor when last spotted. She looked like winning easily having gone three-lengths clear two hurdles from the finish on her penultimate outing, before seemingly idling badly late on and eventually getting collared late on the run-in. She then matched that form when runner-up again last time and although she returned a beaten favourite, she split two horses rated 104 and 107 and will face opponents rated no higher than 100 today. On that evidence, this looks a weaker event and it’s hard to envisage her not being involved again, who seems sure to go well and potentially gain her first victory of the year.