Andy Holding's Friday Racing Tips

Hierarchy showed the kind of speed in the Mill Reef at Newbury last time to suggest that a drop back down to the minimum trip is worth trying, but at the same time, whether he deserves to be so short in the betting is a moot point. Of those who have shown useful form in similar events yet have been a little dismissed the market, both MITBAAHY (best price 9-1) and MANACCAN (best price 9-1) make the most appeal at the morning prices and a couple of reasonable each-way bets on the pair is the advice.

The former has already featured prominently in a two of the best five-furlongs pattern races for juveniles this season and he looks to be seriously overpriced whichever way you strip it down. A creditable third in the Roses Stakes at York back in August, Roger Varian’s colt managed to go one place better in an equally competitive listed contest at Ayr last time out and with the third home that day, Geocentric, going on to boost the form at a similar level at Dundalk last week, the form looks extremely watertight. A horse with a high cruising speed, the son of Profitable has a decent draw to track the pace down the middle of the course (stalls in the centre) and with the ground drying out all the time, conditions should turn out to be ideal for him to run to maximum capacity.

The latter technically has a bit to find with his old rival Hierarchy on their meeting in the Mill Reef, but as John Ryan’s colt got wiped out at a crucial stage at the Berkshire venue, he’s very much worth another crack. Prior to that slightly unlucky episode 20 days ago, the speedy chestnut had posted a very smart speed figure on quick ground over on the July course and even though today’s examination will test his mettle at the minimum trip, he shaped like a colt who has enough basic pace to cope.

NAVELLO (best price 17-2) appeared to react positively from a mid-season gelding operation based on his effort at Chester last time out and with today’s underfoot conditions also seen as no negative, George Boughen’s inmate might have more to offer than his morning odds imply.

Busy in the early part of the campaign, the son of crowned a couple of victories at a fairly low level by capturing the Lilly Agnes Stakes at Chester’s May meeting and although he failed to build on those performances in three subsequent starts, the draw was largely to blame for his demise in both the Norfolk and Dragon Stakes respectively. Given a mid-season break and to overcome his recent visit to the treatment table, he came back with all guns blazing on the Roodeye recently when running on strongly in the latter stages to get within hailing distance of the all-the-way winner, Flaming Rib. Looking at the numbers from that nursery, they reveal the winner ran to an extremely high level 13 days ago (fastest furlong-per-furlong figure on the card) and with Navello’s dam a Group 3 runner-up on soft ground in the past, confidence is high that her son can continue his progression in a race well within his compass based on recent findings.

RAVENSCRAIG CASTLE (best price 6-1) was slightly disappointing when beaten at a short price last time out but he’s probably better judged on his effort in the Melrose handicap here previously and repeat of that stellar performance should see him get back on track and go close on his return visit.

Progressive with two wins under his belt in the middle part of the campaign, Iain Jardine’s gelding was pitched into the white-hot environment of a Class 2 York handicap next time and in what looked a stellar renewal of the three-year-old version of the Ebor, the scopey grey came through with flying colours, running strongly to finish a close-up third. Although he failed to build on that excellent effort himself next time at Musselburgh, the tight nature of the Scottish venue looked an odd place to send a horse with such a long stride in the first place, but now back over a more galloping track, this improving three-year-old stayer can rebound back in the right direction.

A race that has gone the way of some pretty smart stayers in the past, most notable Trueshan, and without suggesting for one minute we might be dealing with a future Group 1 horse here, it will still be a major surprise if INJAZATI (best price 5-1) doesn’t go well today before setting his sights on some major prizes next season.

Unraced at two, Charlie Fellows’ gelding has been brought along steadily by his astute handler this term and he’s really improved immeasurably since being stepped up in trip. Good on the figures when landing a competitive 1m2f handicap at Newcastle after a 57-day break two starts ago, the son of Night Of Thunder was even more impressive when trouncing a much better line up at Newbury last time out and with the time figure and backend sectionals working out much better than the Group 3 contest won by Solid Stone earlier on the card, his performance strongly suggested he isn’t far of pattern company himself. The way he finished off his race also hinted that a step up in trip might bring about further improvement and he’s strongly fancied to back up that theory over a track that should complement his forward going nature.

If there is to be a joker in the pack at a bigger price, FARHAN (best price 16-1) has enough natural ability to cause a shock. Although yet to score in four attempts this season, John Butler’s charge has been plying his trade at a fair level and his effort at Chester last time out comes courtesy of a really fast time figure. Done for a little bit of pace close home on the Roodeye, the son of Zoffany might, therefore, be better suited to a step up in trip and this consistent colt might easily be capable of outrunning his odds.

It’s noticeable the two times LILAC ROAD (best price 12-1) has run in a race where the pace has been extremely strong from the outset, she’s ended up posting career-high performances and with today’s test likely to be one whereby her strengths are underlined, William Haggas’ filly morning price appears totally out of whack compared to her natural ability.

Runner-up in an extremely strongly-run affair at Newbury in mid-summer, the daughter of Mastercraftsman failed to run anywhere near the same level at Newcastle next time, falling victim of yet another horse who tried to make all the running on the round course. Back under more patient waiting tactics at Salisbury last time out, she once again came through off strong fractions to get up in the closing stages to deny the very smart Techinique, and with that form and time figure as good as any other horse on offer in today’s line-up, it makes little sense why she’s chalked up around the 14-1 mark in the morning lists.