Andy Holding's Saturday Racing Tips

THIBAULT (best price 14-1) ran pretty well under the circumstances in a useful handicap hurdle at Fontwell last time out and hailing from a stable who had their first winner for a while on Thursday, Adam West’s gelding is fancied to outrun his odds. 

A three-time winner last season, his best effort arguably came in defeat at Uttoxeter on his penultimate start of the campaign when a creditable fourth behind Wilde About Oscar in a quality Class 2 affair on Midland Grand National day. Shaping as though he would be better for the run over a trip just shy of his best on his seasonal bow at Fontwell, the figures reveal the son of Kayf Tara ran to an even higher standard on his return to the Sussex venue next time and as we saw with the fifth-placed horse, Seddon, winning at Lingfield earlier in the week, the form isn’t too shabby. Only beaten five lengths in a race he had no right to feature in on his latest outing on the Flat, that effort should have brought his fitness levels to fever-pitch and with some firms offering four places, he’s worth a small each-way interest. 

All eyes will be on Buzz as he bids to get his Stayer’s Hurdle prospects up and running and today’s race looks to be the ideal starting point for Nicky Henderson’s grey. He has, however, been priced up accordingly so the wisest policy might be to look towards the ‘without the favourite’ market to obtain some value and in the shape of GUARD YOUR DREAMS (best price 9-4), he easily makes the most appeal of the other four. 

A quality novice from last season, Nigel Twiston-Davies’ gelding rounded off a very productive campaign by finishing a creditable third in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree in April. Returning to action following a 195-day break, the son of Fame And Glory was well-backed to defy top weight in what looked to be a competitive handicap and having travelled well throughout, he stayed on strongly all the way up the hill to justify the gamble. Clocking a decent speed figure into the bargain, the five-year-old was also notably quicker than the likes of Camprond (5.2 seconds), Bardenstown Lad (2.4seconds) and Top Bandit (2.9 seconds) on the final circuit, so it’s come as little surprise to see the race work out well since with the likes of Captain Morgs, Art Approval and Coole Cody (might have landed the Paddy Power Gold Cup but for falling) all advertising its worth. Said to have schooled brilliantly over fences, his victory at Prestbury Park a month ago has rather put a spanner in the works regarding his future career, but it’s a nice problem for connections to have and in what should turn out to be an honest gallop courtesy of Song For Someone and Goshen being in the line-up, this powerfully-built chasing type can prove much better than his current rating.

A wide-open mares’ handicap hurdle to conclude the card but there are strong enough reasons to believe both MARE QUIMBY (best price 7-1) and SHE’S COMMANCHE (best price 10-1) should easily be capable of figuring on the evidence of their recent form. 

The former arrives here following her best effort over hurdles so far to date and a repeat of that runner-up spot in a Galway maiden hurdle should ensure she’s competitive off her opening mark of 107. Racing in the first-time tongue-tie, Noel Meade’s mare swept to the front going well on the approach to the last but after being squeezed for a little room up the inside fence on the run-in, she couldn’t quite match the finishing kick of the winner. Time figure-wise, the race at Ballybrit strongly suggested it was an above-average one of its kind and with today’s step back up in trip likely to suit, the daughter of Presenting should turn out to be a massive player.

The latter only ran two days ago at Thurles and although she finished just outside the money, she performed a good deal better than the bare form suggested. Noted going well throughout, Adrian Murray’s mare got pinned down on the inside fence going down the back and around the top bend and as the race unfolded in the home straight, she found herself unable to gain any traction on the slowest part of the track. That said, she did keep on well to finish a respectable fifth and with that performance coming off the back of another solid effort at Sligo previously, her chances of going well again far outweigh her morning odds. 

BAKERSBOY (best price 13-2) has yet to register a win in ten starts but he has run some decent races in defeat – especially over today’s course – and with tonight’s trip threatening to be his optimum, Tom Dascombe’s gelding rates a dangerous floater to all off bottom weight. 

Third on his first two starts over seven-furlongs here as a juvenile, the son of Oasis Dream still shaped as though that trip was too sharp for him back here in July and as a result, he was tried over the extended 1m1f distance on his latest encounter. In what turned out to be a strongly run affair for the grade, the three-year-old didn’t quite get the smoothest of runs down the straight but once out in the clear he picked up quite nicely to finish just on the heels of the main players. Dropping back down a furlong on his return visit, hopefully, things will pan out a little better for him on this occasion and at the morning prices, he’s worth a small interest to see whether he can finally break his duck. 

SILK TIE (best price 11-4) was unlucky to bump into a horse who ran an exceptionally quick time figure for the grade over today’s C&D last time out and he’s worth another chance in his bid to gain compensation on his return visit to the Dunstall Park track. 

A winner over six-furlongs here back in August, Dave Evans’ gelding has gone close to adding to his tally on two occasions, firstly when staying on well from the rear of the field to finish second to Chillsea and then secondly just finding the well-treated Viva Voce too hot to handle two months later. The other good thing to come out of his latest encounter, along with the fact he reacted well to the first-time visor, as he proved himself in a strongly-run environment and with today’s extra yardage seen as a plus rather than a negative, the son of Intrinsic makes quite a bit of appeal from his favourable draw.