Welsh Grand National 2021 Tips: Ante-Post Preview

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Welsh Grand National 2021 Tips: Ante-Post Preview

The Welsh Grand National is the feature race at Chepstow and has always been a great spectacle over the Festive period, where a large number of participants test their stamina and credentials over the gruelling three-mile and six-furlong distance. While the winner often goes on to feature in the Grand National at Aintree in April, several have stepped up to the plate in Cheltenham’s main event - the Gold Cup, such as great horses like Burrough Hill Lad, Master Oats, Synchronised and Native River, while Potter’s Corner added his name to the roll of honour two years ago, becoming the first Welsh-trained winner of the Chepstow’s prestigious event. Considering the race itself has often attracted a field of 20+ runners, it tends to be a race that bookmakers far from look forward to, as fourteen of the last nineteen winners have gone off single-figure odds or lower, including last year’s victor - Secret Reprieve, who returned a winning 5/2 favourite for trainer Evan Williams so those towards the front of the market, particularly the ones covering the first five or six in the market, are worth a second look. 

Interestingly, all of the last nineteen winners ran within the last seven weeks so make sure to be on the lookout for horses who have had a recent outing. I would also take into consideration the best age bracket that has produced the most winners - generally horses aged between seven and nine. It is, of course, going to be another highly-competitive puzzle to solve, but hopefully these pointers can provide us with a shortlist in the hope of advising one or two selections ahead of the final line-up. Harry Fry confirmed earlier this week that Coral Welsh Grand National ante-post favourite Ask Me Early, who was as short as 5/1 for the race after winning at Exeter and Chepstow in the build-up to the Welsh National, will miss the Chepstow highlight this month. His absence has left last year's impressive winner and the Evan Williams-trained Secret Reprieve, as the new favourite, who remains on an attractive-looking mark of 140 and is very well suited to this kind of test having also won the trial event at the same venue last year - enhancing his record at the course to two-from-two. 

The Llancarfan trainer of the seven-year-old reports him to be doing well at home and he’s in with an obvious chance with plenty in his favour, but he missed his intended target - the Ladbrokes Trophy, and the lack of a decent run is of concern, especially when nearly every winner of the last twenty years had a preparatory outing beforehand, including himself twelve months ago. He represents no value to me at the prices and is therefore opposable. Next up in the market we have Highland Hunter, installed as the second-favourite at 8/1, who warmed up for this with an excellent staying performance off top-weight to win the London National at Sandown, seeing off a course-specialist in a titanic tussle up the hill. His performance can be upgraded given the fact he stumbled badly mid-race and did really well to keep the partnership intact. The eight-year-old has done nothing but improve since switched to fences, especially when let-loose over marathon trips and, with the long home-straight sure to see him to good effect, Paul Nicholls’ charge is certainly on the shortlist but, at twice the price, his stablemate Yala Enki has to come into the reckoning if taking up this option. 

This reliable servant has been the bronze medalist in the last three renewals of this event, a cracking achievement, and looked on good terms with himself when showing tremendous resolve under a well-judged front-running ride from Bryony Frost to run his rivals into the ground at Cheltenham. He is a very good jumper, who can earn many lengths over his rivals, especially when fired into a fence. It’s quite surprising that he hasn’t been entered in the Welsh Grand National as of yet, but if connections let him have a fourth crack at it, he could offer a fair bit of value for each-way purposes. Midlands National fourth Screaming Colours is one of four Irish-trained entries at this stage and could potentially be well-handicapped after a pleasing comeback when second at Cork. While it wouldn’t come at all a shock to see the winner of that event - the Jonjo O’Neill-trained Time To Get Up make an impact, though, he looked a bit lacklustre on his reappearance at Aintree but perhaps he didn’t take to the unique obstacles so you could easily draw a line through that performance and his trainer has an exceptional record in the contest. 

A more appealing betting proposition, to many at least, looks to be The Big Dog, who ticks all of the right boxes for the Welsh Grand National. The eight-year-old, currently a 10/1 chance with the most sponsors for the Chepstow main event, has proved that stamina tests are very much his forte having signed off last season with victory in the €80,000 Punchestown Grand National Trial. I know he was beaten a long way on his reappearance, but he’s totally unexposed in marathon trips and has a nice weight to contend with. Jamie Codd, who partnered The Big Dog to success at Punchestown, will be unavailable to ride at Chepstow due to suspension but connections are eager to get the services of Johnny Burke, who would be a fantastic replacement. Perhaps if Peter Fahey’s charge were from a more high-profile yard he might be half that price and given the fact that this has been the culmination of a long-term plan, he makes a fair bit of appeal. Scottish Grand National winner Mighty Thunder, who’s currently 16/1, gets his first taste of this course for trainer Lucinda Russell. He has a chance and, although this new career-high mark demands more, the eight-year-old made his seasonal return when fourth to Fusil Raffles in the Grade Two Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby and that run should have put him spot-on for the Welsh Grand National. 

The weights are headed by the high-class Native River, who will bid to repeat his triumph of five years ago.That win, off an official rating of 155, was the last time Native River was tested in a handicap so he would need to be somewhere near his best to defy a mark of 166. His mark has been dropped four-pounds for his second last time out to Protektorat in the Many Clouds Chase at Aintree which will help and we know he will handle the forecast ground, where plenty of rain should be on its way by the end of the week. I wouldn’t put anyone off him given the achievements he’s accomplished during his career, but the combination of top-weight and his advancing years makes him vulnerable this time round. His connections have revealed he will line-up for the assignment but if your thinking of backing him, I would probably wait until the night before, as that would give a better indication as to whether he takes his chance and, if he does, he could be fair value to hit the frame with the extra places likely to be offered in the coming days. 

Potters Corner is also set to take part for Christian Williams, who looked right back to his best when agonisingly denied at Cheltenham lately. This past winner of the race, who made history by becoming the first welsh-trained winner of the showpiece, is much lower in the handicap than when winning this two years ago, is well-suited to this track, so could be a lively player at a big price. Sandy Thompson’s Hill Sixteen will be attempting to build on his recent eye-catching second over the Grand National fences at Aintree and can’t be dismissed lightly. That was a career-best effort without a doubt, he is in good hands and is a very sound jumper. The eight-year-old will be having his first foray over a trip this far but his trainer appears to have no doubts on that score as his highest-profile efforts to date have been characterised by strong finishes, so there’s plenty of optimism about him getting this longer trip and is very well handicapped on a mark of 132, the same as last time. His forecast price is more than fair from an each-way point of view as he’s ground-versatile and has been trained specifically for this affair. Ramses De Teillee went close in this three years ago and, although he was disappointing in this last term, he’s back on a realistic mark and ran well on both his recent outings so is one to monitor closely for the David Pipe team. He’s another one to add to the shortlist for the on-the-day bets category as I will likely play a third choice in this event with the extra places that are likely to be available. 

Another one who could outrun his double-figure odds is Eclair Surf. Emma Lavelle's seven-year-old took the transition to chasing in his stride last season and was third in the trial here when last spotted despite conditions being quicker than ideal. He looks well-handicapped running off this lowly mark of just 134 and may run better than his odds suggest. While Harry Fry’s leading hope Ask Me Early was ruled out of the event earlier in the week, he’s not short of ammunition, especially with his alternative intended participant - CAPTAIN DRAKE (best price 33-1) in the field, who’s wildly overpriced by most firms. The eight-year-old has plenty of stamina in abundance and relished his first go at an event beyond three-miles for the first time when second in last year’s Midlands National. He was also a fine fourth in the Welsh Grand National last season, off 140, and finds himself five-pounds lower here. He should be approaching peak-fitness after a couple of recent spins and having been given some useful relief by the assessor allied to course-and-distance form he has in the locker, a repeat of that display last term gives him every chance of hitting the frame once more. 

The Philip Hobbs-trained DEISE ABA (best price 14-1) also merits consideration on the back of an excellent short-head second to Highland Hunter on return to chasing last time in which he would have won in another stride, too, as he rallied close to home once his bottomless reserves of stamina came to the fore and went past the winner shortly after the race concluded. This talented eight-year-old is a pound lower than when an eye-catching fifth in last year’s Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival and the form of those last two victories at Sandown has worked out strongly, as he beat subsequent Ladbrokes Trophy winner Cloudy Glen in the first of those, who’s now rated in the high 140s, while his victory next time, where previous ante-post favourite of this race - Ask Me Early - was pulled up, the former bolted up by four-lengths. That form bodes well for the task ahead here and given he’s a chaser on the up, who should relish conditions and the step up in trip, he is an appealing each-way price with several bookmakers. Of the rest, impressive recent course winner - Iwilldoit, who dismantled a good field from the front and past winner Elegant Escape, who won this three years ago under a big-weight, are others to consider in what is sure to be a cracking renewal.