13:20 Kempton

There is no doubt that Edwardstone sets the standard in the Grade 2 Novice Chase with a rating of 159 but I think it is worth taking a chance on SOLO (best priced at 6-1) to cause an upset. The five-year-old won the Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle here on his UK debut before struggling over hurdles last season. The Paul Nicholls trained gelding was only beaten a nose at Ascot on his chasing debut in October following 189 days off the track before finishing 2nd at Newbury last time off top weight in a novices’ handicap chase.

The form of that run has been boosted by the winner Not Available following up at Ludlow off a 3lb higher mark and the third Mister Coffey finishing 2nd yesterday behind Jacamar despite jumping left handed throughout. With a rating of 139, Solo does still have a bit to find with the favourite Edwardstone and also Do Your Job but he is the type that Paul Nicholls does really well with and it wouldn’t surprise me if he sprung an upset in this Grade 2 contest.

Solo - 1pt @ 6/1

13:45 Leopardstown

Abacadabras broke Willie Mullins’ stranglehold in this race in 2019 and I am hoping that Gordon Elliott can win it again this year with THREE STRIPE LIFE (best priced at 11-2). He looks the apparent second string here but Davy Russell’s mount sets the standard in this race based on bumper form. The five-year-old made an impressive winning debut in a bumper at Navan last season before finishing 4th in the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival.

The form of that race, as always, is working out well with Elle Est Belle (3rd), Super Six (5th), Grangee (6th) and I Like To Move It (9th) all winning over hurdles already this season and Three Stripe Life himself won on his hurdling debut last month. He missed his intended engagement in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle last month because of good ground so this soft ground should suit him well and I expect him to be involved in the finish.

Three Stripe Life - 0.5pts e/w @ 11/2

14:50 Chepstow

The Colin Tizzard trained ELEGANT ESCAPE (best priced at 16-1) ran better than both myself and his odds of 66/1 suggested he would last time at Sandown in a 2 mile handicap hurdle. He unsurprisingly got outpaced in that contest but stayed on well to finish 7th only beaten 20 lengths at the finish. That run was his first since running in the Gold Cup behind Al Boum Photo in March 2020 so that prep run should put him spot on for this.

Elegant Escape won this race in 2018 off a mark of 151 before being sent off 9/4 favourite in 2019 off a mark of 160 when he finished 6th. He is clearly well handicapped off a mark of 154 and should run well with Jonjo O’Neill Jnr taking the ride and up to seven places available.

Elegant Escape - 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1

14:55 Leopardstown

Gordon Elliott has already won the valuable Troytown Handicap Chase this season with one of his National Hunt Chase contenders (Run Wild Fred) and he bids to win the Paddy Power Chase with THE BOSSES OSCAR (best priced at 8-1). The six-year-old has finished beaten favourite on all three of his chase starts so far this season but those have all been over distances too short. The handicapper has given him an opening rating of 143 over fences which means he runs here off an 8lb lower mark than when 2nd in the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last season.

Connections now step The Bosses Oscar up in trip to 3 miles for the first time this season and also fit the gelding with first time cheekpieces for this race. The biggest danger looks to be Alfa Mix who also wears first time cheekpieces for this race but The Bosses Oscar is preferred given we know he is better than his current mark over fences.

The Bosses Oscar - 0.5pts e/w @ 8/1

15:10 Kempton

REAL STEEL (best priced at 7-1) joined Paul Nicholls from Willie Mullins rated 166 following his 6th placed finish in the 2020 Gold Cup so he looks extremely well handicapped off a mark of 145 in this race. The eight-year-old has finished beaten 57 lengths and 40 lengths on his two runs so far this season but he now drops into a 0-145 handicap for the first time in his career.

Bryony Frost takes over from Lorcan Williams on board Real Steel for this race and he could prove hard to beat if bouncing back to form in this race.

Real Steel - 1pt @ 7/1

15:25 Chepstow

This looks a competitive novices’ handicap chase but preference goes to the Fergal O’Brien trained IMPERIAL ALCAZAR (best priced at 15-8). The seven-year-old was sent off 11/2 second favourite for the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last season but disappointed having been struck into on his left fore. He had previously been an impressive 2 ¼ length winner of a qualifier at Warwick on heavy ground over 3m1f which shows that conditions in this race will suit him well.

Imperial Alcazar finished 2nd in a match race with Silver Forever on his reappearance this season but jumped well that day and just failed to give weight away to his rival. She has since boosted that form with a comfortable victory in a listed race on her next start so that is no disgrace and the handicapper has generously dropped him 2lb for that effort down to a rating of 145. He faces last time out winners Brinkley and Pats Fancy in this race but should be able to get off the mark over fences at the second attempt.

Imperial Alcazar - 1pt @ 15/8