Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2022 Tips: Ante-Post Preview

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 2022 Tips: Ante-Post Preview

It’s a brand new week in my ante-post weekly series and I have turned my attention to the Cheltenham Festival curtain-raiser, the Grade 1 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, which is run on the old course over a distance of around two miles. It is set to take place on Tuesday 15th March 2022, where it will be greeted by the famous 'Cheltenham roar’ come post-time at approximately 1.20 pm and will light up the first of the four days' best racing in the National Hunt calendar, known as the greatest show on turf.

Last year’s edition of the two-mile opener was far from a vintage field on paper and a relatively low congregation so to speak with just eight runners going to post but punters got off to a flyer when the Willie Mullins-trained Appreciate It, who stood tall at the head of the ante-post market in the buildup to the race on the back of two Grade 1 victories, emerged as the best novice hurdler of the season, winning it by an astonishing twenty-four lengths and keeping his unbeaten record over hurdles firmly intact. His victory handed Willie Mullins a majestic seventh win in the race to put his name alongside the yard’s previous winners such as Champagne Fever, Vautour, Douvan and Klassical Dream, who were all strongly fancied and able to live up to the hype and expectations.

The betting is headed by one horse who’ll be looking to follow in the footsteps of his brother, that horse being Jonbon, a full-brother to the top-class Douvan, who’s owned by JP McManus and has so far lived up to his tall reputation and expensive cost at the sales with three impressive victories without coming out of second gear. He cemented and strengthened his position at the top of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle market when taking the step up in class in his stride in the Grade Two Kennel Gate Novices’ Hurdle at Ascot to extend his unbeaten record to three. While only five runners took their chance, the race was far from short of good-quality opponents with the likes of Colonel Mustard, who had placed twice at the highest level last term, comfortably held in second.

The bookmakers were quickly impressed, as they immediately installed him as the 5/2 favourite for the Supreme. He’s looked a pretty straightforward and professional horse after just two starts in this sphere and that latest victory proved he is among the top of the best two-mile novices. The sky’s the limit for him without a doubt going forward, especially if he can achieve as much as his brother did. I wouldn’t put anyone off him but at such skinny odds, he makes little appeal for me from a betting perspective in such a competitive event – and the temptation is to look elsewhere. He is likely to be accompanied by stablemate and 4/1 second-favourite Constitution Hill, who burst onto the scene at Sandown last month, dismantling a useful prospect in the shape of Might I by fourteen-lengths, clocking a good time figure that backed up the excellent visual impression.

His trainer has recently identified the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle back at the same venue as his next port of call and, if he can pass that test with flying colours, he’s likely to be pushing Jonbon for favouritism here. He’s an interesting candidate based on the fact that it’s been over a decade since his owner, Michael Buckley, had the runner-up of the Supreme in 2011 when Spirit Son split both Al Ferof and the mighty Sprinter Sacre to finish second but sadly had his career cut way too short. There’s every rationality to suggest this talented/highly-regarded five-year-old can reach the very top of the two-mile novice division and, out of the top two in the market, he’d be the one I want to side with at this stage as the 4/1 could represent a bit of value, given the fact that his price-tag is likely to shorten if able to showcase his qualities back at the Surrey venue next time.

The one who could be the value against the big pair in the betting and is a stand-out contender, from Ireland at least, is last year’s Champion Bumper winner SIR GERHARD (best price 5-1) for the all-conquering Willie Mullins team. The Cheveley Park Stud-owned gelding met with the first defeat of his career at the Punchestown Festival following his gritty front-running victory in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham on his first start for Willie since leaving Gordon Elliott but made an impressive transition to hurdling on seasonal reappearance in the Thorntons Recycling Maiden Hurdle at Leopardstown. The son of Jeremy travelled well throughout and jumped well, on the whole, demonstrating a largely quick and slick technique at his hurdles before quickening up to win by eight lengths under a motionless Paul Townend.

A trip to the Dublin Racing Festival for the Grade 1 Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle could be next on the cards for last season’s Cheltenham hero and he should take all the beating in that intended assignment. He is undoubtedly a chaser in the making for the future but, based upon his first hurdle start and his exceptional bumper exploits, it will be a surprise if he doesn’t develop into a high-class novice hurdler this season and his valuable experience of Prestbury Park allied to his turn of foot which he displayed in the Champion Bumper will count for plenty against Nicky Henderson’s leading pair. He is a major threat to all as he goes in search of a second Cheltenham Festival success with every possibility of providing Willie Mullins with an eighth victory in the opener in March.

Another potential player in this race is Gavin Cromwell's five-year-old MY MATE MOZZIE (best price 18-1) who seems to have been completely overlooked at double-figure odds and is certainly worth an each-way interest.

He made a big impression on his hurdling debut at Punchestown and followed up in great style when pulling clear of Chemical Energy next time. He didn't enjoy the rub of the green when runner-up in the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle last time-out but ran a blinder to finish a short-head second considering nearly everything went wrong for the favourite. It turned into a stop-start race which saw him race a bit keen but, despite this, he demonstrated a sheer amount of ability and looked the likeliest winner as he skipped a couple of lengths clear on the run down to the final hurdle, only to make a mess of it, losing momentum in the process. The eventual winner, Statuaire, took full advantage of that one’s mistake and got her head in front on the line but the runner-up courageously rallied at the post and actually got back in front of the winner a few seconds later.

Having watched the replay back on the Royal Bond multiple times, I’m adamant My Mate Mozzie was an unlucky loser and best horse in the race but, essentially, his narrow defeat has allowed bookmakers to quote his odds a lot higher than I initially thought for this. One might assume he’d be half of his current price tag if he’d jumped the last hurdle a lot better as that would surely have seen him win the race by at least two or more lengths. The horse who was back in third, Mighty Potter, subsequently strengthened the substance of the form by winning the Grade 1 Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle. I get the impression the former, however, is the sort of horse who will be more effective in the expected large-field scenario he’ll get at Cheltenham and, if that does prove to be the case, this talented six-year-old shouldn’t be discounted and might be a bit underrated against the big guns in the betting.