Cheltenham Festival 2022: Five best value horses from the handicap entries

Honest Vic

• Form:  5/16155/64252O5/1415/150-332P5
• Best Price 50/1

Trends: Last 10 winners

• All carried more than 10st 9lb
• Nine of the last 10 winners were rated between 138 and 148
• Eight out of the 10 winners had never won a Graded race
• Only two favourites have won in the last 10 years
• Gordon Elliott has won three of the last four renewals
• The last six winners were Irish trained

The Pertemps Final is the biggest plot race of the Cheltenham Festival, as horses need to finish in the top six of a qualifying race to gain entry. Trainers try to preserve their horse’s handicap marks so it’s no surprise to understand most previous winners finish between fourth to sixth in their respective qualifier.

Gordon Elliott targets this race and is the prolific winning trainer who plans to have seven runners this year! Of his, I like Sassy Yet Classy who was only rated 122 at the start of this season so needed to win a qualifier to rise sufficiently in the handicap to get in the Cheltenham Final. She followed that run with a fast-finishing second over an inadequate 2-mile 4-furlong handicap and looks highly progressive. She can be backed at 16/1 NRNB with William Hill.

However, my bet for the race is Honest Vic at massive odds of 50/1 with Unibet. The nine-year-old is intriguing for an older runner and breaks the usual age trend of five to eight-year-olds. Bookmakers use the trends to formulate prices, so to find a longer-priced winner you normally need to break the odd trend.

Honest Vic has two pieces of form that make him stand out. He has vital previous Festival form when finishing a staying on fifth in the uber-competitive 2m5f 2020 Coral Cup, off a mark of 140.

He followed that with an impressive four-length victory at Cheltenham when stepping up to three miles for the first time. That was off a mark of 141, he remains unexposed over the three-mile trip as he only raced competitively once more over hurdles when a respectable 12 length fifth in the Grade Two Long Walk Hurdle behind Thyme Hill and Paisley Park (postmarking 146).

This season Honest Vic went novice chasing, and after some good runs, seemed to lose his confidence, so connections sent him to a Pertemps qualifier, where he finished a handy fifth place. The handicapper ironically dropped him 5lb for that cosy run which sees him drop back to his winning mark of 141.

With Sire Du Berlais likely to run off a mark of 155, that puts Honest Vic on a racing weight of 10st 10lb, hitting the key weight trend.

Honest Vic has more to give at this trip and with the previous good Festival form being such a strong trend, I feel he represents huge value at 50/1 and should be nearer a 16/1 shot.

For a huge return try a reverse forecast with Sassy Yet Classy.

Come On Teddy

• Form:  2/03/36241/41336-152
• Best Price 25/1

Trends: last 15 years:

• All 15 winners had previously won over three miles
• 14 of 15 had previously placed at Cheltenham
• 12 of 15 had run at least three times at Cheltenham; nine more than four times
• No horse has won off a rating of 150+ for over 30 years
• The Irish have only won two of the last 20 renewals 
• Bad for Favourites – only 10% strike rate

At this early stage, many horses have dual entries in this and the (0-145) 3m2F Kim Muir, so it’s very tricky to assess who is going where, fortunately with non-runner no bet (NRNB) now in play we can bet with confidence.

The British have a remarkably good record in this winning 18 of the last 20 running’s, which is handy as I like the look of Tom George’s strapping novice chaser, Come On Teddy, at tasty odds of 25/1 with Bet365 who offer five places, and I recommend an each-way play.

Tom George is highly selective with his Festival runners, and the ones he sends invariably run well, particularly in this race. His sole runners in the past 10 years were Singlefarmpayment who finished second and fifth (once unplaced), with Actival a close sixth.

Novices historically do well at the Festival so Come On Teddy ticks that box. His three runs over fences included a good fifth at Cheltenham in the Grade Two Dipper, over an inadequate 2m5F, where he ran well but was unsurprisingly outpaced. A further victory against the 135 rated Fern Hill also reads well.

The son of Fame and Glory is a proper stayer in the making and proved his stamina by winning a three-mile class two handicap hurdle at Cheltenham off a mark of 127 and followed this up with excellent 2021 Festival form, staying on for third in the three-mile Pertemps Final off a mark of 134. These runs are perfect stepping stones for the Ultima.

Come on Teddy has already postmarked 142 over two and a half mile chases and this extended 3m1F looks sure to bring out bundles of improvement. Consequently, his handicap mark of 137 looks like a winning mark.

He has proven himself in big fields and you could argue this strong travelling hold-up merchant has been inconvenienced by the small fields contested this season, and the 24 runner Ultima will play to his strengths.

A final note of caution, he is also entered in the Kim Muir amateur riders race (currently 25/1), so I very much suggest you back him in that too, but I do feel he needs the assistance of his regular professional jockey, J J Burke, who knows how to deliver him to win a race but is ineligible to ride in the Kim Muir, so I expect Come on Teddy to go the Ultima route.

Powerstown Park

• Form: 31/0480/352/2/31114-U51P1
• Best Price 33/1

Trends

• 18 of the last 22 winners had won over three miles or further
• 27 of the last 30 were aged nine or less
• Eight of the last 11 wore headgear
• Gordon Elliott’s 16 runners (16 years) have won three and placed a further five times
• 19% of favourites win
• Top Amateur, Jamie Codd has won four times since 2009
• The last 12 winners carried more than 11st

Gordon Elliott seems to dominate this race, either with his winners, and placed horses or by having the strong priced favourite who bombs out!

Gordon’s Frontal Assault is the current favourite and if Jamie Codd is jocked up, expect this to go off a short price! He has strong claims based upon his novice campaign and is a worthy 11/2 favourite.

However, I like the look of Sam Thomas’ Powerstown Park who has improved dramatically from a lowly 90 rated performer over hurdles in March 2021 to win three hurdles races and two chases.

Now, these wins have been impressive, and Sam Thomas is showing just what a fine trainer he is.

Powerstown Park bolted up over two miles, but then improved for the step up to three miles and this winning 3-mile point to pointer still looks to have plenty of improvement left in him. His last win was striking, being held up before leaping to the front half a mile out and toying with his rivals up the home straight, winning by a cosy one-and-a-half lengths.

Normally I would have congratulated the jockey for keeping the winning distance down preventing a big hike in the weights and only received a 5lb increase to 130. This could easily have been a 12-14lb rise so leaves him on a fantastic winning mark for today.

Unfortunately, in the context of the Kim Muir, the 130 rating might not be high enough to get into the race. Historically the bottom weight carries between 126 to 135, and a mark of 130 has only made the cut four times in the last 10 years.

There is hope, this year's Cheltenham Festival entries are at a 10 year historical low from over 1000 in 2011 to around 650. The Kim Muir has only attracted 59 entries, with eight of these being rated below Powerstown Park. The maximum field is 24 and many of the horses are double entered in the Ultima, so he could just squeak in right at the foot of the weights.

If Powerstown Park gets in, then he must have a huge chance, so we have to back him each way at 33/1 with Sky, Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook who all offer 5 places and most importantly NRNB.

As a side note, Powerstown is in the Ultima, but with almost 80 entries, he has almost no chance of getting in there.

Bun Doran

• Form: 114153/31P63/2335/122/521F3/75P0-43424
• Best Price 66/1

Dancing on My Own

• Form:  5234P/416/13F
• Best Price 33/1

Trends

• 15 of the last 18 had run at the Festival before
• 10 of the last 12 were aged seven to nine
• Six of 12 had previously won a race at Cheltenham
• 19% of favourites have won since 2000

There is nothing wrong with betting on two horses in a race, especially at long prices, and I like the look of Bun Doran at huge odds of 66/1 with Skybet, and Dancing On My Own at 33/1 with William Hill – four places.

The Grand Annual has attracted the smallest entry of all the handicaps with just 38, and there must be a strong chance of a field size less than the normal 20 maximum. I am hoping so as Bun Doran is sitting around 36th and if he gets in is a cracking bet!

I fancy the 11-year-old Bun Doran to roll back the years and bound up the hill to victory at huge odds. This race usually goes to a seven to nine-year-old, but it was won in 2019 by the 12-year-old Croco Bay at 66/1, so there is precedent for the older horses too.

Six of the last 12 winners had run in previous renewals, and to me, this is a powerful stat. Bun Doran came second in 2019 off 148 and ran down the field last year off 150, but what is what’s really exciting is his mark of just 131, some 17lb lower!

You have to remember that sandwiched between those two Grand Annual runs we saw Bun Doran finish third in the 2020 Grade 1 Queen Mother, postmarking 160. Even allowing for some age deterioration he is absolutely chucked in off 131.

They have put on a tongue tie and cheekpieces this season which has helped spark some life into the old boy. The highlight coming second on the horrible heavy ground off 134.

This will have been his primary target all season, so on the day I’m convinced connections will upgrade the cheekpieces for blinkers or a visor to help sharpen him and he could just hose up!

If Bun Doran doesn’t sparkle, then I also like the look of Dancing On My Own. He won a two-mile beginners chase in Ireland off a 687-day absence in October 2021 and outbattled Buddy Rich, who himself sits in this market as 8/1 second favourite. There is a big price discrepancy considering we can back Dancing On My Own at juicy odds of 33/1!

The exact Irish weights are yet to be published but I don’t think there will be any major weight pull between them. We just have to forgive Dancing On My Own for his last start where he was on his final prep and having a cosy little trot round in the rear when he fell at the last.

I’m not too concerned as Henry De Bromhead will extensively school him and won’t bring him over unless he is 100%. If that’s the case, it’s non-runner no bet and we get our money back!

I strongly suggest each way plays on both selections.

Considering Buddy Rich has such close form with Dancing On My Own, and has been laid out by Gordon Elliott, I also suggest a combination forecast with Bun Doran, Dancing On Your Own and Buddy Rich (6 bets) and a combination tricast (6 bets). You’ll have to wait for the day to put them on (unless you can get a special from a Bookie) and this will pay huge for a small stake, just my sort of fun Cheltenham bet!!