Architect Tips has a look ahead to the Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle and has one selection that stands out.
2022 Stayers Hurdle
The feature race on the third day of the Cheltenham Festival is the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle and this year’s renewal is arguably the most open contest of the four main championship events taking place across the meeting. There appears to be lack of strength in depth in the staying division this season with no real standout favourite so it’s no surprise to see last year’s winner Flooring Porter installed as the 3/1 favourite, with the bookmakers thinking Gavin Cromwell’s charge will potentially repeat his heroics from twelve months ago and become the first back-to-back winner of the three-mile event since the Big Buck’s era, who made this race his own with four consecutive victories between 2009-2012.
In last season’s Stayers’ Hurdle, Flooring Porter was given an exhibition front-running ride by Danny Mullins, who’s mount had the rest of the field under pressure a long way from home and he readily held Sire Du Berlais and Paisley Park in the latter stages to claim his second victory at the highest level and also provide us with a good 10/1 winner having advised him on the morning via my daily column. His success story last term was brilliant, in which he developed from just a regular handicapper to the best staying hurdler around and while he was pulled up at Punchestown on his final start last season, it was due to the initial false start that saw him unable to get to the front until the second flight and he was a spent force at the halfway stage having used up all his energy to get himself into a prominent role.
He looked set to potentially make a winning return at Navan had he not fallen two out when still in front but he got back on track in his last run, where he emerged with plenty of credit to finish a clear second in the Dornan Engineering Christmas Hurdle. He did extremely well to reduce the gap between himself and the eventual winner at the finish line given the winner stole a few lengths at the start but the matter of fact is that he remains winless since winning this twelve months ago, which is of concern and slightly off-putting and confidence about him pulling off the same feat again isn’t so certain this time. Former winner of this, Paisley Park, came from another planet to pull off an unlikely victory when beating Champ at this venue last time and, on reflection of his return to winning ways, he’s clearly still capable of operating at a high level. It was great to see him roll back the years but that seemed a strange race and he was comprehensively beaten by Flooring Porter in this event last year so has work to do to turn around the form.
With that said though, is he still capable of winning in a Grade 1? I have my suspicions, as the last time he won a Grade 1 was back in 2020, where he narrowly denied Thyme Hill. He would, of course, have outstanding claims if able to repeat that sort of form but you have to wonder whether he still has that “fear-factor” about him in order to regain his title against much stronger opponents than those he beat in this four years ago. At 13/2, he’s opposable for win purposes, but it would obviously feel foolish to rule out place possibilities, especially when his beloved supporters will be roaring him on up the famous hill in the latter stages.
Thyme Hill, who’s generally available at 4/1, looks to have been laid out for the race and, for me, is the most appealing runner of the British representatives. He put aside a disappointing trip to France when sticking to his guns in really gritty style up the Ascot straight to push the reappearing Champ all the way to the line having been flat out off the home turn. Philip Hobbs’ smart stayer looked like winning the race a year earlier, who was collared close to home by Paisley Park and was also an unlucky fourth in the Albert Bartlett the season before behind Monkfish, Latest Exhibition and Fury Road. I have no doubt he would have at least finished second with a clear passage that day and, ironically, that was the last time he has visited Cheltenham. He’s closely matched with the likes of Champ and Paisley Park but the good thing about him is that he’s fresher than that pair and taking into account that ticks a lot of the main trends for this contest, the eight-year-old is undoubtedly a leading player.
Champ, a former RSA winner, made a triumphant return to action when winning the Long Walk Hurdle but while both are heavily respected, both are ten-year-old’s and that’s a huge negative from a stats point of view which may halt both their bid to take the championship. If I had to pick one out of the two, I would side with Champ, who’s never been out the first two in all completed hurdle starts and is available at 5/1 who is a strong traveller that jumps and stays very well too but I have a stronger choice in the race who I’ll get to shortly. When delving into the form-book a bit deeper, it proves that Flooring Porter has the beating of all the British-trained contenders on a line through Paisley Park (closely tied in with Champ and Thyme Hill) alongside most of the Irish bunch too with exception of one horse.
Whatever way you look at this race, though, the one horse he’s never beaten, who’s had his measure twice already, is the Willie Mullins-trained five-time Grade 1 winner KLASSICAL DREAM (best price 9-2). Yes, you are probably reading this and thinking I have lost the plot based upon his slightly underwhelming effort when only fourth behind Royal Kahala, but Willie Mullins’ turned him out too quickly following his victory over Flooring Porter beforehand and, in hindsight, connections revealed that they looked at stealing a small win with him again before his main target at Cheltenham which wasn’t the initial plan. While that plan didn’t work out for Mullins’ charge, it could turn out to be a blessing in disguise, as it saw him drift on the ante-post market to a general 9/2, which now makes him a really attractive each-way betting proposition at this stage.
The eight-year-old, who’s raced sparingly since winning the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle three years ago, is evidently at his best when allowed plenty of time between his races and that’s reflected in his career-best achievements. Having missed the whole of 2020, including an intended run in the Champion Hurdle, he headed into uncharted territory trip-wise for the first time when stepped up to three miles for the first time on his sole start last season, where the application of a first-time hood in a race that was run to suit, saw him defy a 487-day absence to return a breathtaking of the Champion Stayers Hurdle at Punchestown (Flooring Porter pulled up) before supplementing his status as a leading staying hurdler when seeing off that same rival in the Christmas Hurdle on his penultimate outing under a confident Paul Townend ride.
While he may have been flattered by his hard-fought win at the finish, I have an incline that he would have still come out on top regardless of the start, as the body language between both riders rounding the home turn gave an indication that Flooring Porter had met his match. He was under pressure, whereas Klassical Dream’s rider was motionless and, while he did his best to close the gap in the latter stages, the winner had more than enough up his sleeve to keep the defending Stayers’ Hurdle champion at bay, winning by two lengths. His victory was a fundamental reason to suggest he’s got more improvement to come as it was just his second start over the staying distance and it was to his credit and natural ability that he was able to keep up the gallop in the latter stages having forced the pace from the offset.
What I find even more impressive, which should also be acknowledged, is that he’s won five of his nine career starts for Willie Mullins and, coincidentally, all of those victories have been achieved in Grade 1 events too. That’s undoubtedly an achievement worthy of recognition and, not only does he tick most statistics for this event in terms of age, form, winning Festival experience and being the highest-rated runner in the field at 165, Willie Mullins is seemingly very optimistic about his chances next week, saying he’s got a “hell of a chance.” He’s among the best of the Irish contingent and even if habitual front-runner Flooring Porter sets the fractions at Cheltenham this time, Willie Mullins’ runner wouldn’t need to take him on as he can just sit in behind the pace. Having proved he can handle the contours of this course, this gelding by Dream Well looks the type of horse who’s capable of producing a championship-winning performance and, in the process, can become a dual Cheltenham Festival winner in this trilogy encounter with Flooring Porter.
