Cross Country Chase

The Gigginstown maroon and white silks have been a standing dish at the Cheltenham Festival ever since Ryanair owner Michael O’Leary caught the Cheltenham bug in 2006 when War of Attrition won the Gold Cup.

Their best haul was in 2018 with seven victories, and they have been particularly strong in handicaps, especially with Davy Russell on board.

With multiple Festival winners a regular occurrence it makes sense to do a Gigginstown Lucky 15, so I’m recommending the following picks:

TIP 1 - Tiger Roll 

  • Best Price: 15/8
  • Form: 121/71P6430/40/P114U2221331P/2P511/4111/52/P614-P0

 

Key Trends:

  • 10 of the last 12 winners were in the front two of the betting
  • 14 of the last 17 winners had previous course experience
  • 14 of the last 17 were Irish trained
  • Three of the last four were won by Tiger Roll!

 

Tiger Roll is a superstar and considering Gigginstown spent huge sums buying big strapping chasing types in their pursuit for Gold Cup success, it’s ironic they bought Tiger Roll relatively cheaply just so they had a runner in the four-year-old Fred Winter handicap hurdle.

He was never really built for chasing, but what an extraordinary horse Tiger has become, not only winning two Grand Nationals, but five races at Cheltenham Festival comprising Triumph Hurdle, a 4-mile National Hunt Chase, and three Glenfarclas Cross Country chases.

If he wins this year, he will join Quevega on six victories and become the joint-most successful winning horse in Festival history.

Tiger Roll won’t be going for a third Grand National but will attempt a fourth Cross Country Chase triumph. Since it became a conditions race where all horses carry the same weight, it suits the classier horses. With positive vibes coming from trainer Gordon Elliot, Tiger Roll has a huge chance to make history.

The biggest danger could be from the weather forecast! Tiger Roll loves drier spring ground, and with some rain due this weekend, we must keep our fingers crossed it’s not too heavy.

Luckily Cheltenham is a quick-drying course, with the cross country track on the driest part of the track, so hopefully we can watch Tiger Roll romp home. What a little legend he is.

National Hunt Chase

TIP 2 - Run Wild Fred 

  • Best Price: 11/4
  • Form: 1D3161/31F1/3455222-212

 

Key Trends:

  • Nine of the last 12 had previous Cheltenham chase experience
  • 12 of 12 had run at least three times over chases
  • 13 of 16 had won over at least 3 miles
  • 13 of the last 16 had won a chase that season.

 

Gordon Elliott targets this race, winning five of the last 12 renewals (including Galvin last year when Elliott was suspended and ran under another trainer’s name). 

It tends to be a long-term target for the Elliott winners, and Run Wild Fred was earmarked ever since he came second in the Irish Grand National last season, maintaining his novice status for another season.

This normally goes to a battle-hardened horse with plenty of chasing experience and Run Wild Fred has a handy 10 starts, including the uber-competitive Troytown Chase where he bolted up off a mark of 145. That proved he had the required class to win this Grade 2 event.

He has been kept fresh for a tilt at one of Gordon Elliot’s favourite races, just like Galvin was last season, and at 11/4 he is a good second leg to our Lucky 15.

Kim Muir Challenge Cup

TIP 3 - Frontal Assault

  • Best Price: 9/2
  • Form:  P4/235/2421018-342

 

Key Trends:

  • 18 of the last 22 winners had won over 3 miles or further
  • 27 of the last 30 were aged nine or less
  • Eight of the last 11 wore headgear
  • Gordon Elliott’s 16 runners (16 years) have won three and placed a further five times
  • 19% of favourites have won since 2000
  • The last 12 winners carried more than 11st.

 

For a Cheltenham handicap, a 19% strike rate for favourites is a reasonable statistic, so we can feel slightly more confident with Frontal Assault sitting at the head of the market.

More confidence can be derived knowing Gordon Elliott’s record in this race is also unsurpassed, with three wins and five placings from just 16 runners.

Frontal Assault hits the trends, but his form is more compelling, finishing a staying-on second, third and fourth in decent Irish rated chases all over an inadequate 2m 4F trip. The step up to 3-mile 2F should bring out huge improvement and his handicap mark of 145 (top weight) looks favourable.

This is an amateur riders race and Rob James is a positive jockey booking. He can claim a handy 7lb allowance, which is normally to allow inexperienced riders a chance against pro jockeys. But in James’ case he is already highly accomplished and one of the top Point to Point riders on the Irish circuit, so this allowance is a real bonus for Frontal Assault’s chances.

At 9/2 he still looks a generous price and is likely to go off shorter on the day. 

Grand Annual Chase

TIP 4 - Embittered

  • Best Price: 10/1
  • Form: U313/415363/2244F-020121365

 

Key Trends:

  • Seven of the last 17 winners ran in the race before
  • 15 of the last 18 had run at the Festival before
  • 10 of the last 12 were aged seven to nine
  • Six of 12 had previously won a race at Cheltenham
  • 19% of favourites have won since 2000.

 

Embittered has unfinished business in the Grand Annual as he went off a well-backed 9/2 favourite off 146 in last year’s renewal and was travelling well only to fall at the ninth.

I get the distinct impression from his Graded campaign this year he has been laid out for another tilt at this prize. Considering he was smashed in last year off 146, I’m expecting similar market confidence off a 1lb lower mark.

We can be buoyed by one of the key race trends that seven of the last 17 winners ran in the race before, so the previous practice does seem to improve a horse’s chances.

Embittered is a best-priced 10/1 and that’s a tasty final price to help boost our Lucky 15 return.