Saturday Racing Tips from Andy Holding

HARIBO COLLONGES (best price 2-1) shaped pretty well in a maiden hurdle similar to today’s here on his debut and with him having the most scope for improvement out of the front three in the market, Stuart Crawford’s gelding is fancied to press home that viewpoint.

Racing prominently from the outset at the Co Meath venue, the son of Tiger Groom was a little keen and fresh through the early exchanges and although he managed to hold his position until approaching two out, his lack of experience and a previous outing finally kicked in once he jumped the last. That said, he kept on well enough to finish a creditable sixth of 25 and with the time figure of the race suggesting he didn’t run too badly in the context of today’s assignment, the lightly-raced grey looks the one to be with at the morning odds. 

The EBF Final is always a tricky puzzle to solve on the basis that most of the field are largely unexposed and still improving, but whichever way you strip it down, THUNDER ROCK (best price 11-2) appeal as one of the most solid among the 17-strong field and he deserves to be played accordingly. 

Defeated just once in four starts over hurdles - which can be forgiven after a 249-day break - Olly Murphy’s gelding has improved steadily with each run since and his latest performance at Huntingdon still suggest there’s plenty left in the tank in terms of his current rating. Although he was made to work hard by the useful Dorking Boy, his effort on the clock was the key feature to his display and it becomes even more apparent when you compare his numbers to the Sidney Bank Hurdle won by the 134-rated Elle Est Belle. Not only was the overall time of the race over ten seconds quicker than the listed race, the final circuit was also superior to the tune of 1.2 seconds (roughly lengths), so it’s safe to come to conclusion that even a rise to 129 probably still underestimates his true worth. Even his victory over subsequent Lanzarote Hurdle winner Cobbler’s Dream reads well in the context of today’s race and with plenty of his performances coming on soft ground, today’s testing conditions shouldn’t prevent the son of Shirocco from being in the mix. 

La Tihaty and HAFEET ALAIN (best price 4-1) dominated a strongly run handicap at Kempton two starts ago, with the former just coming out on top, but there’s every chance the latter can gain revenge on his old rival based on the fact he’s run well here before and has a better draw. 

Although he’s won three times on the turf, he’s looked just as good if not better at times on the all-weather and his latest victory at Lingfield recently backed up that view. Still, with plenty to do at the Surrey venue, Ed Walker’s chestnut quickened up really well in the closing stages to pull off an unlikely success and given that the race wasn’t run to suit, his performance deserves upgrading. Unsuited by the desperately slow tempo when last seen at today’s track, today’s likely strong pace looks set to play more into his strengths and providing he can work his way into a challenging position at the top of the home straight, he should turn out to be a potent force late on.

LEBOWSKI (best price 22-1) has to be forgiven a below-par effort at Haydock last time out, but that aside, his overall profile previously suggested he’s slightly better than a 124-rated horse and with his yard now back in full swing, Michael Scudamore’s gelding can far outrun his morning odds.  

Impressive in two novice hurdle wins earlier in the season, the son of Aizavoski was regarded highly enough by connection to have swing at a much better race and although at face value it appeared he was nowhere near up to scratch, there were plenty of mitigating circumstances why he failed to deliver the goods. First and foremost, his yard at the time were very much under a cloud and secondly, he was simply way too keen in the early stages. As a result, his end product was understandably pretty tame, but with his Herefordshire handler 4-14 in the last two weeks and faith kept with this seven-year-old that he deserves to be on the big stage, he might just be capable of a bigger effort than many expect.

It’s early days yet, but TADREEB (NAP) (best price 6-4) appears to be a shrewd purchase by current connections and he’s fancied to back up his impressive C&D victory a month ago. 

A creditable fourth on his debut for Michael Attwater over a mile, the son of Oasis Dream was dropped a furlong on his return to the Surrey venue and in what turned out to be a very strongly run race for the grade, he came through powerfully in the closing stages to win going away. Clearly suited by a well-run affair, the four-year-old will probably need something to take them along at a reasonable pace to be seen at his best, but with Papa Stour most likely to ensure that will be the case, a repeat bid looks a distinct possibility.