Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase

Like many races this year, the complexion of this contest has changed dramatically after declaration time.

Long-time favourite Galopin Des Champs is heading for the Turners Novices’ Chase, but the intriguing L’Homme Presse, who had seemed destined to run in the two-and-a-half-mile Grade 1, has been re-routed here.

Bravemansgame and Fury Road (both confirmed) have also both tasted top level success over staying trips this term, demonstrating the depth this race has.

The 152 rated pair of Ahoy Senor and Threeunderthrufive further demonstrate the potential strength of this renewal. Capodanno is yet another smart horse who could play a leading role if taking his chance next Wednesday.

So, without a further ado, let’s take a deeper look at the main protagonists.

Bravemansgame

Bravemansgame began to fulfil his undoubted potential when landing the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle at Newbury last season and although he came up short at both Cheltenham and Aintree when tackling Grade 1 company over two-and-a-half-miles and three miles respectively, he was always going to take another step forwards when being sent over fences.

That has most certainly proved to be the case as Paul Nicholls’ imposing seven-year-old defeated experienced rivals on his first two outings over fences before defeating Ahoy Senor in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton, when displaying that he is more than happy to take a lead should a rival wish to make the running.

Bravemansgame further enhanced his growing reputation when defying a mark of 159 in handicap company at Newbury and he will arrive at the Cheltenham Festival with the benefit of four runs under his belt, which is clearly advantageous in such a competitive novice heat.

I wouldn’t hesitate in suggesting that Bravemansgame is the best jumping novice we have seen this season as he is more than capable on a long stride, equally adept when getting in tight and, importantly, he is smart enough to know when it’s time to take off.

The turn of foot that he displayed in the closing stages at Kempton was particularly impressive and confirmed that he can track a rival who wants to make the race a real test of stamina, yet still have enough left in the tank to put the race bed.

Bravemansgame paid the price for trying to take on Bob Olinger in Ballymore last year and he was likely feeling the effects of that effort when chasing home Ahoy Senor at Aintree.

This could be his time to shine.

Ahoy Senor

Ahoy Senor shot to prominence when defeating Bravemansgame in the Grade 1 Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree last April and, like his Aintree victim, he was deemed good enough to tackle more experienced rivals on his chasing debut in October.

Lucinda Russell’s exciting seven-year-old was sent-off a 5/2 shot for the Listed Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase and was a length down when sprawling on loading and unseating his jockey at the penultimate fence.

The powerful son of Dylan Thomas atoned for that mishap with an impressive Grade 2 success at Newbury, where he displayed a high cruising speed and simply jumped his three rivals into submission.

He was seemingly unsuited by going right-handed and the tight nature of Kempton when proving no match for Bravemansgame in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase, but he comfortably bounced back to winning ways in the Grade 2 William Hill Towton Novices’ Chase at Warwick in February.

Connections saw fit to hand Ahoy Senor a Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup entry, which is a clear indication of the regard in which they hold their Grade 1 winning novice hurdler. There is certainly an argument to be made that he would be much better suited by the Gold Cup trip and track and it does appear to be a fairly open year, however, this is clearly the most likely target.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we were talking about Ahoy Senor as a genuine contender for the Blue Ribband contest this time next year and he is therefore clearly a big player in this race. However, I do feel that he could prove vulnerable to speedier rivals next week.

L’Homme Presse

L’Homme Presse failed to trouble the judge in two starts in France but did manage to win one of his two starts over hurdles in Britain, earning a rating of 130. However, it’s safe to say that he has taken his form to a whole new level this season, winning all four of his starts over fences achieving a rating of 159.

Venetia Williams’ up-and-coming seven-year-old took advantage of his lowly handicap mark when scoring at Exeter in December and was equally impressive when following up at Ascot just two weeks later.

The Diamond Boy gelding took yet another giant leap forwards when recording a 10 lengths victory over the 141 rated The Glancing Queen - who was in receipt of 5lbs - in the Grade 2 Dipper Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, and he merely cantered to an effortless 21 lengths success in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown last month, which naturally caught the attention of many.

The form of his debut success was boosted by the runner-up next time out. Fantastikas, who placed third behind L’Homme Presse at Cheltenham, was also successful on his only subsequent start. However, it is probably worth nothing that the runner-up at Sandown, namely Mister Coffey, destroyed a fence on the first circuit and is now being aimed at the Kim Muir over three-miles-and-two-furlongs.

He is an intriguing proposition.

Capodanno

Capodanno kept a relatively low profile over hurdles last season until readily justifying favouritism in competitive handicap company at the Punchestown Festival, making a mockery of a mark of 132 when scooting clear to win by an easy 12 lengths.

The JP McManus owned six-year-old had his attentions switched to chasing during the autumn and he made no mistake on his debut at Naas in December. His second outing offered even more encouragement in spite of defeat given that he seemingly had last season’s Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle hero Bob Olinger off the bridle turning for home, and there is certainly no shame in finishing within four-and-three-quarter-lengths of Henry de Bromhead’s potential superstar.

The Manduro gelding did blot his copybook when taking on stablemate Galopin Des Champs in the Grade 1 Novice Ladbrokes Novice Chase at the Dublin Racing last month, as he made a mistake and unseated Mark Walsh at the fifth fence.

It’s obviously less than ideal to be heading into a Grade 1 novice chase at Cheltenham on the back of such an incident, however, it clearly could have been much worse and going marginally slower over this trip - providing that the same stablemate doesn’t line-up - should help. 

It is also worth noting that he jumped some fences during a recent racecourse gallop at Navan, which should help with his confidence.

Capodanno does seem to possess a touch of class and, given that his impressive Punchestown success came over 3 miles, he should be well suited by stepping back-up in trip.

He too rates an interesting contender.

Threeunderthrufive

Threeunderthrufive was far from disgraced when placing sixth in last year’s Albert Bartlett following four victories from as many starts in novice company. However, he always looked to have the size and scope to develop into an even better chaser and connections will undoubtedly be delighted by what their charge has already achieved this season.

Paul Nicholls’ smart stayer chased home the 152 rated Does He Know on his chasing debut in October and hasn’t looked back since, winning all four of his subsequent starts including avenging his defeat over the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase course and distance in November.

The promising son of Shantou readily defeated subsequent scorer Fantastikas in Grade 2 company at Doncaster and was equally impressive when landing the Grade 2 Hampton Novices’ Chase at Warwick in January, where he jumped well and made all while conceding 5lbs to all of his rivals.

Threeunderthrufive looks set to contest this race as connections are keen to keep retained jockey Adrian Heskin on board, which makes plenty of sense if they are concerned about how he may get on with a different jockey.

However, I can’t help but think that he would be much better suited to the National Hunt Chase as he seems to be all about stamina. Indeed, the Welsh National was mooted as a potential target earlier this season and he doesn’t seem to do anything too quickly.

That said, his form looks rock-solid and connections were toying with the idea of giving him an entry in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, which is a ringing endorsement of his ability.

He should be finishing strongly if they go a true gallop.

Fury Road

Fury Road’s solitary success over fences came on his solitary start over 3 miles, when getting the better of his 158 rated stablemate Run Wild Fred in the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase at Leopardstown in December.

Third in the Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase at Fairyhouse, the Gigginstown House Stud-owned eight-year-old could only finish fifth, beaten 55 lengths, behind Galopin Des Champs at the Dublin Racing Festival last month and connections were eyeing a tilt at handicap company until the British handicapper dished out an unfavourable mark.

His defeat of a 158 rated rival looks impressive at face value. However, Run Wild Fred is currently favourite for the National Hunt Chase and certainly appears to be more effective over extreme distances.

It is perhaps worth noting that Fury Road placed third in a red-hot renewal of the Albert Bartlett in 2020 - won by Monkfish with Latest Exhibition second and Thyme Hill back in fourth - and he was supported into 4/1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle last season, demonstrating that those who know him best still have significant faith in his ability.

That said, the fact that connections were even considering handicaps provides precious insight, and he may ultimately prove to be slightly below this level.

Others to note

Beacon Edge landed the Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase at Fairyhouse in November and was only narrowly touched off in the Grade 2 Ten Up Novice Chase when conceding 7lbs to the winner.

Clearly smart on his day, Noel Meade’s charge may ultimately prove best over trips just shy of 3 miles. However, he is clearly a capable performer and should not be entirely dismissed.

Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase 2022 Prediction

L’Homme Presse is an intriguing addition to this contest as it’s impossible to know where his limitations lie. 

Capodanno will likely find improvement over this trip and should not be underestimated. The British trained duo of Ahoy Senor and Threeunderthrufive, meanwhile are exciting prospects who are clearly well regarded by connections; however, they may lack a gear or two over this course and distance. 

The one horse who seems certain to line-up with no questions to answer is BRAVEMANSGAME, boasting a very solid profile having twice triumphed over vastly more experienced opposition in addition to scoring at Grade 1 level and in handicap company from a mark of 159. 

Paul Nicholls’ super-exciting seven-year-old is blessed with both speed and stamina and his ability to take lengths out of his rivals at every fence only further strengthens his prospects.