Architect Tips looks at the winners and losers from the weights reveal for the Grand National 2022, which leaves some more likely and others less likely to challenge.
Grand National 2022
Last week, the weights for the world's greatest jumps race, the Randox Grand National, were revealed - headed by the Henry de Bromhead’s duo Chris’s Dream on 11st 10Ib and his stablemate and last year’s winner Minella Times, who is close in behind on 11st 9lb.
There have since been reports by the Irish Times suggesting that Chris's Dream has suffered an injury setback, meaning he will miss the Grand National and Minella Times will be carrying top weight. Even if Chris's Dream does run, he has failed to complete in two attempts over this fences, including in this race 12 months ago, which is reflected in his 50/1 price.
*04/04/2022 Update
Chris's Dream was not featured among the confirmations for the Grand National at Aintree, meaning Deise Aba, Blaklion and Poker Party have moved into the list of 40 qualified horses and Minella Times, last year's winner, will carry top weight.
Minella Times has failed to finish the last two times but it would be dangerous to discount him in his bid to go back-to-back on the grandest stage of them all, given how impressively he took to the course last year in which he sauntered to victory under the excellent Rachael Blackmore, who’s likely to be on board again. I think he’s one for place purposes at 16/1 but off a 13Ib higher mark this time round with a lot more weight to carry, but he’s vulnerable from a win point of view.
Grand National 2022 Top Weights
| NAME | WEIGHT | BEST PRICE |
|---|---|---|
| Minella Times | 11-9 | 20/1 |
| Delta Work | 11-8 | 10/1 |
| Easysland | 11-7 | 80/1 |
| Any Second Now | 11-7 | 9/1 |
| Run Wild Fred | 11-6 | 25/1 |
| Lostintranslation | 11-5 | 80/1 |
| Brahma Bull | 11-5 | 100/1 |
| Battleoverdoyen | 11-5 | 125/1 |
| Burrows Saint | 11-4 | 20/1 |
Next up in the weights we have the favourite for the Grand National, Delta Work, after beating two-time Aintree hero and stablemate Tiger Roll in the Cross Country Chase on debut in that sphere at Cheltenham in March. That race has often been a good guide towards this, with the likes of Cause Of Causes and a few others doing well in that race at Cheltenham before coming here to run well or win. He has quite a big weight of 11/8 but is classy enough to carry it in his bid to follow in the footsteps of Tiger Roll.
Ted Walsh’s Any Second Now was an eye-catching third last year having been badly hampered at the 12th fence and his campaign couldn’t have gone any smoother, in which he will arrive in Liverpool with a victory in the Tote Bobbyjo Chase under his belt. He’s a bit higher in the weights than last year but is only 5Ib higher and may be up to the task of going two places better.
Snow Leopardess (best price 14/1) has been popular in the market for this all season and rightfully so, given how good she’s been and a low-weight of just 10Ib 8Ib to potentially carry makes her task slightly easier than the others we have just touched upon.
Charlie Longsdon’s likeable chaser is likely to avoid all the carnage given her prominent-running style but I have concerns about her stamina having never gone beyond 3m5f and if she were to win she would be the first grey mare to triumph in the race so that’s a big statistic to overcome and enough to look elsewhere in my opinion.
The eight-year-old Enjoy D’Allen, recently bought by JP McManus, is as short as 12/1 for the Grand National and is one I want on the shortlist. He has been trained for the race and is ultra-consistent, as proven over the regulation fences, with figures reading 3222112233. His sole attempt to date over a marathon trip came in last year's Irish National, where he ran a blinder to finish third.
He warmed up for this with a good run over hurdles last-time-out to finish fifth of 23 following a third in the Paddy Power over the Christmas period. Essentially, the UK assessor has given him a mark of 148, which is only 3Ib higher than his Irish mark and he looks set to carry a low-weight, currently 10st 10Ib. He should be well-suited to this stamina test and a clear round should see him thereabouts with more to come.
One horse who I feel is slightly underpriced is Escaria Ten, who’s not really convinced me as being a thorough stayer, given he faded in the closing stages of last year's National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham over 3m5f before being pulled up in the Irish National over the same distance. He ran with credit to finish second to Any Second Now last time and while some fancy him given his kindly allotted weight of just 11st, he’s not for me.
Ben Pauling could be set to saddle his first ever runner in the Grand National in the shape of Kildisart, who’s been given a handy weight of just 10st 10Ib. The 10-year-old has the right sort of profile for this race and was a smart chaser a couple of seasons ago, where he won some valuable pots and came close to landing the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival when touched off by a neck.
He was ruled out last season through injury but returned from a 14-month absence to finish a creditable fourth in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury over a trip short of his best. Inevitably, he’s always needed his first run of the season but he showed that the ability firmly remains intact and the Grand National has been his long-term target for almost two years.
A mark of 148 appears to be lenient based upon the fact that he’s back on the same mark as when winning off top-weight in a competitive handicap at this meeting three years ago. Connections have no concern about him staying the distance and knowing that he’s likely to be partnered by Daryl Jacob, who’s tasted success in the Grand National courtesy of Neptune Collonges’ victory a decade ago - he could be a dark horse at double-figure digits.
The Phil Kirby-trained Top Ville Ben appeared to take to the famous fences in the Becher Chase at Aintree in December before walking through one of the fences when going well and ultimately hitting the canvas. I felt as though he would have played a leading role in the outcome of that event and since his fall, he’s put together some smart efforts over hurdles, including when second in a Grade 2 last-time-out. He might need the ground to be on the soft side on the day but he’s nicely weight on 10st 10Ib and isn’t one to be taken lightly.
In the colours of the late Trevor Hemmings, who did ever so well in this event, Cloth Cap (10st 9Ib) and Deise Aba (10st 7Ib) could be set to run in the race.
Deise Aba has snuck into the Grand National following the withdrawal of Highland Hunter
— SBK (@sbk) March 29, 2022
We caught up with @PJHobbs1 on his chances and what it would mean to train the winner of the Grand National in the colours of the late Sir Trevor Hemmings. #GrandNational pic.twitter.com/nh5XYO4O4v
The latter is the more interesting one of the pair, in my opinion, who’s got some smart form in the book and while he’s an all-or-nothing character, he could be well suited to the demands of this race and could go well for trainer Philip Hobbs. He’ll need a few to drop out (currently 42 on the list) but that’s possible.
Of the rest, the consistent and high-class Fiddlerontheroof (11st 3Ib) Kim Bailey’s Two For Gold (11st 2Ib) and last year’s fifth Farclas (11st) all have lively chances at big odds and have been in great form this term with this race being their main target.
National Hunt Chase second, Run Wild Fred, could be set for this task but the combination of a mark of 158 and 11st 6Ib means he hasn’t been done any favours by the assessor and I find it difficult to see him being extremely competitive, albeit his consistency over fences cannot be disputed.
Emma Lavelle could be set to saddle two runners. Firstly, former Ladbrokes Trophy Chase winner De Rasher Counter, who warmed up for this with a spin in the Denman Chase at Newbury. He’s not had much luck the couple of years due to a tendon injury but shaped quite nicely last time and a mark of 149 coupled with a light weight of just 10st 11Ib makes him interesting, while his assured jumping will stand him in good stead. At 66/1 best price, he could be worth a small wager.
De Rasher Counter could be joined in the Grand National by Classic Chase winner Eclair Surf, who subsequently finished second in the Eider and is improving as a thorough stayer. His jumping was far from fluent at Newcastle but he jumped well at Warwick on his penultimate outing and could be a player with conditions likely to be in his favour too. Currently number 47 on the list, he’s another that will need a few to be scratched but, if he does get in, his weight, mark and form in general could see him very competitive.
In conclusion, the Grand National is very difficult to solve and I will probably play a couple more bets on the day or closer to the time but at the moment, it’s KILDISART (best price 33/1) and ENJOY D’ALLEN (best price 12/1) who make the most appeal at this stage from an each-way perspective.
