Thursday Racing Tips from Architect

NOT ON YOUR NELLIE (best price 11-2) shaped a lot better than the beaten margin indicated here eight days ago on his reappearance, where he travelled well before being tentatively handled when his chance had gone in the final furlong. That was a hotter race than this, a class three, and he will find this less competitive. He’s a former course-and-distance winner and generally goes well for Faye McManonan, who can claim her usual three-pounds, and Nigel Tinkler’s five-year-old went close in this grade back in November off a two-pound higher mark. With that latest run under his belt and a good pace to aim at, he should be a lot more competitive here. 

ONE FOR BILLY (best price 9-2) hasn’t won in this sphere for nearly four years but that was when he was rated 127 and he achieved a mark in the 140’s when last spotted over the larger obstacles which came back in early 2020. The ten-year-old has put together two solid efforts in defeat over hurdles recently, showing that retains plenty of his ability, and came close to scoring last time over hurdles. He was beaten just half-a-length that day and will return to chasing off a lenient-looking mark of 112 with a seven-pound claimer booked to ride. This is a weak event for a horse of his usual standards in this discipline so Dan Skelton may have found him a good opportunity to return to the winner’s enclosure and reward connections for their patience with him in recent years. 

PICANHA (best price 4-1) won his only bumper outing on debut at Exeter and has done well over hurdles so far despite only winning one of his four starts. He was turned over at short-odds last time but a bad mistake at the last didn’t help and the ground looked testing. He was also giving the winner a lot of weight and his previous fourth at Cheltenham in a Grade 2 was a decent effort considering he was badly hampered mid-race. At Warwick, back in December, he comfortably beat Arizona Cardinal when getting five-pounds from that rival and meets that one again on identical terms here so it’s difficult to see the latter reversing the form despite winning last time. He remains low-mileage and open to improvement given his lightly-raced profile and with Finn Lambert’s huge claim taken into consideration, he looks the one to beat off a low-weight with this longer trip and better ground likely to suit. 

The favourite, Dubai Hope, should have more to offer this term but there’s a chance course-specialist ASAD (best price 11-4) will be allowed to dictate matters and he looks the value call in this small-field event. 

Mick Appleby’s six-year-old hasn’t been seen for 166 days but is a pound lower than when second over track and trip in a class three event April last year, where he split two horses rated 94 and 93. He then ran well two more times over course-and-distance, firstly, when third off 84, in which he was only collared late on by two horses rated 96 (Acquitted and Jumaira Bay) before finishing a close-up fourth in a class two off the exact same mark. He matched that form when switched to the turf next time off the same mark where he chased home the 90-rated Titan Rock in second. 

He wasn’t able to sustain that level of form in two more starts on the turf but the return to his favourite course off a lenient and capable mark at this lower level with Theodore Ladd taking off three-pounds makes him an appealing bet to potentially see off the favourite. Furthermore, Theodore Ladd was onboard him when the pair won a class three and placed three times over this course-and-distance. 

Mick Appleby is triply represented in this event with the vote going to WHITTLE LE WOODS (best price 13-2) who’s 1-1 at this course and shaped as if still in form when sixth just six days ago. He would have finished a lot closer without being forced wide throughout and went close off a similar mark at Southwell on his penultimate outing. Moreover, his victory at Wolverhampton back in March could hardly have worked out any better as the runner-up, Zarzyni, absolutely bolted up off a mark of 99 at Musselburgh in a class two last weekend. On a line through that horse, this four-year-old remains well-treated off 87 and should be able to produce another bold display with Harry Davies maintaining the partnership who can offset seven-pounds too.