Irish 1000 Guineas

With 14 runners declared and the starting point has to be with current favourite Tuesday (best price 5/2) who sets a fair standard after finishing a decent third place in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket last time. Trainer Aidan O’Brien has trained 10 winners of this race and his main hopeful, a daughter of Galileo, has every chance of going two places better in the Irish equivalent with improvement to come on just her fourth start.

I am quite surprised she isn’t trading shorter, especially now that she’s drawn very well in stall three. She was beaten just a short-head on debut to Discoveries before opening her account in good style next time. She then went to Newmarket to contest the English version of this contest and ran a cracker to finish a close-up third.

That was a good effort for a filly who was stepping up massively in grade on just her third start and she will probably have improved plenty since then too. She’s the joint top-rated but while Mise En Scene makes her reappearance, Aidan O'Brien's charge is race-fit and with her Newmarket form looking just about the strongest on display, she’s a worthy favourite.

Concert Hall, a stablemate of the former, could pose a threat but she needs more to figure in this deeper race than when scrambling home on her return last month over slightly further. Considering she’s already been beaten four times in her career at a lower level, I find it difficult seeing her have the tactical speed to win this event at a general 16/1 and I can see her being more of an Oaks horse for connections.

James Ferguson could have a lively chance of lifting the prize with Mise En Scene, currently available at 8/1, who won her first two starts and was just behind 1,000 Guineas one-two Cachet and Prosperous Voyage in the Fillies’ Mile on her first attempt at the trip last term.

She disappointed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf but that run can be excused and the reports are she’s in very good form and this has been her early-season target. She goes well fresh, is rated 109, which puts her right into the mix and she should be suited to the course, so there’s every possibility of seeing her run a big race.

Joseph O’Brien’s Agartha, available at 11/1, produced some solid juvenile form of last season, including when second in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes when ahead of Concert Hall, Homeless Songs and Cairde Go Deo and while she’s been second on both outings so far this season, her trainer has pinpointed this race for her for quite some time. While she’s more exposed than most, she’s battle-hardened and is sure to put up a fight so is probably the one you want onside to reach the frame.

Dermot Weld’s Homeless Songs got back to winning ways last time when beating the former but I think she represents poor value at 10/3 and doesn’t fit the mould as a winner of this event.

History has won her last two starts and attracted a bit of support into 6/1 but, like the former, she’s going to need more to score in this warmer race than when scoring at Group 3 level last time. She is improving though, and while she’s in search of a hat-trick, I much prefer the chances of stablemate Tuesday, who brings excellent form to the table.

Irish 1000 Guineas Prediction & Betting Tips

Taking everything into account, there is one participant from an each-way perspective who I really like at a huge price and the filly in question is the lightly-raced HERMANA ESTRELLA (best price 18/1).

Trainer Fozzy Stack was planning to pitch her in at the deep end in the French 1000 Guineas but bypassed that intended target in favour of this Sunday’s feature contest with conditions expecting to be a little softer. This daughter of daughter of Starspangledbanner caused a shock on debut when defying odds of 50/1 in a six-furlong Group Three at Naas in May last year in which she had subsequent Royal Ascot scorer Quick Suzy in second.

She hasn’t been seen since but is clearly held in high regard and while that debut success came over five-furlongs, where she recorded nearly the same time as Group 3 winner on the card - A Case For You - who subsequently won a Group 1 in Dubai, her trainer firmly believes she is going to be more effective over the mile distance.

Of course, her stamina has to be taken on trust, but she looks very smart and she could be overpriced at big odds so at the prices she’s definitely one to be interested in.

Tuesday - 2pts
Hermana Estrella - 1pt e/w