Saturday Racing Tips From Architect

NOLTON CROSS (best price 5/1) ran a strange but good race on handicap debut last time where he lost his position and looked like going backwards before putting his head down in determination and staying on strongly again in the closing stages to nearly take the spoils. He would have done in another half a furlong and this extra yardage should be right up his street under the assistance of SIlvestre De Sousa, who’s probably going to ride him aggressively from the gates to get him somewhere in or around the lead in the early stages. The form of his second at Newcastle looks really good, as the third ran well in the 2,000 Guineas subsequently and, off a light weight for Hugo Palmer, who’s team is in great form (winner and a second here yesterday), this son of Dark Angel is an attractive price to potentially take the opener. 

Mark Johnston came very close to winning this twelve months ago with King Frankel who was narrowly denied by a whistler and he has a good chance of going one better this time round with the returning APPROACHABILITY (best price 12/1). He’s not been seen for quite a while but scored on debut at Pontefract before solid efforts when second at Nottingham and third back at Pontefract in a Listed event, which both come on soft ground. He appears to be on a nice mark of 94 on handicap debut and he’s drawn well in stall six, which will probably see him ridden very prominently by Jason Hart, as he’s front-run on all three starts to date. The step up in trip should help and, with the potential to rate higher and positive tactics mostly seen as an advantage here, he could be hard to pass back down in grade for a yard that is good at placing handicap debutants. Four places generally available. 

The arrival of a bit of rain at Epsom will very much suit STATEMENT (best price 22/1) who makes her stable debut for Kevin Ryan in an open-looking Group 3 contest. She went close in this grade at Newbury on last year’s reappearance when splitting both Group 1 winner Alcohol Free and Vadream on ground quicker than ideal and that form gives her every chance of a bold showing in this event. She didn’t really kick on afterwards but wasn’t disgraced in all remaining starts for her former boss and was a tad unlucky when given too much to do when third in this last year. That said, her experience of this course can only be recognised as an advantage and it’s interesting to see Kevin Ryan pay a lot of money for her to get her into the yard. While it’s probably asking a lot for her to go and win this, she has plenty of ability and it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see her run very well here as she doesn’t have as much to find with most of these despite the ratings suggesting otherwise. 

Owners of FINEST SOUND (best price 11/1) enjoyed a good victory with Royal Champion at this meeting yesterday and they could be set for another with the former here, who looks a massive price on the back a solid second in a Group 1 in Dubai. That wasn’t the strongest of Group 1 events but it was undoubtedly a career-best performance and Simon Crisford is very shrewd at placing his horses. This is a tougher race on piper but it’s still a drop in grade and he has form on soft ground and he’s really consistent. There’s a chance Andrea Atzeni, who rides this course very well, will try to dictate matters from the front and if this improving five-year-old can run to the same level as he did last time, he’s no forlorn hope to potentially give the favourite one or two problems in the latter stages. At the forecast odds, he’s worth an interest on his return to the UK here. 

Mark Johnston has some decent horses running at Epsom today but it’s interesting to see stable jockey Joe Fanning head to Musselburgh for his only ride of the day on ACHNAMARA (best price 10/1) who looks a key player in the “Doncaster Racecourse Celebrating The Platinum Jubilee Handicap.” He’s already won twice this year, including when producing a career-best performance to win by over three lengths at Beverley just seven days ago. He’s gone up 6Ib but he should be suited to today’s step up in trip and, with more to come, he makes fair each-way appeal.

A really wide-open renewal of the Dash but Mick Appleby’s KING OF STARS (best price 16/1) shaped encouragingly when fourth in a Listed event on his return and back in handicap company off the same mark, he could make a bold effort from the front. He’s drawn well to attack from stall twenty and while he’s probably a better horse on better ground, he has lots of pace and should be suited to this course. He’s turned out quickly after just seven days and is only 4Ib higher than his last winning mark. This is a very strong race but he’s a classy horse on his day and if he can consume enough energy for the final furlong, he should be thereabouts with six places available. 

LIVE IN THE MOMENT (best price 20/1) was last seen finishing last but he should strip fitter for the run and he has lots of good form on softer ground (last two wins on the surface). Jason Hart is a positive jockey booking and while most will fancy his stablemate Live In The Dream, it’s his older half-brother who gets the each-way vote here. He was a good second at last year’s Ebor Meeting at York off a 3Ib higher mark so he’s nicely treated off a mark of 90 here and, if able to get back to something near his best, he could surprise a few at a huge price with six places widely on offer. 

KOROPICK (best price 16/1) isn’t the force of old but he’s become so well-treated that he must be given one more chance in this low-graded event here. The eight-year-old has mostly spent his career in better races than this and is 14Ib lower than when a close-up second over course-and-distance last August and 4Ib lower than when third over track and trip in April. The key to him is getting a handy position and stall ten should allow Paula Muir to potentially sweep round the field and get her mount into a nice slot and, if the first-time blinkers off a career-low mark as a positive effect, he could outrun his double-figure odds with four places widely available.

Onto the big race of the weekend, the Derby, and I am sticking with Sir Michael Stoute’s DESERT CROWN (best price 9/4) who looked a top-class prospect when winning the Dante very impressively last time and the arrival of rain certainly won’t hinder his chances having bolted up on a soft surface on debut. Considering he was making his seasonal reappearance in the Dante on just his second ever start, he travelled so well throughout and once he cruised into the lead, he produced a power-packed finish to see off the useful Royal Patronage with plenty to spare, looking better the further he went. Being a son of Nathaniel, he is going to be even better over this longer distance and the sky's the limit for him going forward. He’s only rated a pound higher than Nation's Pride but is open to much more improvement on just his third career start and is therefore fancied to remain unbeaten and land today’s feature contest under Richard Kingscote. 

AADDEEY (best price 11/1) shaped very nicely on his return last time on all-weather debut and he endured a good last season, where he won twice and ran well in a brace of other starts in equally-strong company, including in the Duke Of Edinburgh, John Smith’s Cup and the Summer Handicap. He produced a great-weight carrying performance on his penultimate start at Doncaster on soft ground and is effectively a pound lower here with Harry Burns taking off a valuable five-pounds. His running style suggests he’s going to need a lot of things go his way, especially from stall one and his habitual slow starts have to be noted but he’s a classy battle-hardened horse who never runs a bad race and provided he gets a clear passage, this long home-stretch should see him to good effect as he likes to charge late and should be one of a few contributing factors to him going close here. Four places available.