Sunday Racing Tips From Architect

In the Qatar Prix Du Jockey Club, the Group 1 French Derby, I like the claims of both French 2,000 Guineas fifth and fourth, LASSAUT (best price 17/2) and ANCIENT ROME (best price 15/2) at the forecast odds here. 

The former, trained by Jeane-Claud Rouget, who’s won this race three times in the last ten years, has three good chances and while Cristian Demuro prefers Al Hakeem, I think Lassaut has to be the value play of his three participants. Already a winner at this course, he was having his first start at the highest level in the French 2,000 Guineas at ParisLongchamp last time and ran a very solid race to finish a three-length fifth despite not getting the smoothest of passages throughout the race either. He wasn’t the best away from the gates and was squeezed up a couple of occasions down the inside rail but he travelled well and stayed on strongly inside the last furlong to only be beaten a few lengths and his rider even eased him down in the closing stages too which indicated he’s got more to give. That experience will have done him the world of good and the combination of today’s longer trip, nice draw in stall eight and Mickael Barzalona booked to ride, should all be in his favour. I don’t think we have seen the best of this horse yet and, with more to offer, he looks ready to show his class in today’s feature contest in France with a big performance. 

Andre Fabre needs no introduction, who’s relying on just the one runner here in the shape of Ancient Rome, who has the assistance of Tom Marquand again. This son of War Front is actually the second highest rated runner in the field and having finished a close-up third in the Group 1 Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere last year, he ran a cracker in the French 2,000 Guineas last time, where he only began to find his full stride inside the final 100 yards, as he finished like a steam train to be right on the heels of the eventual winner Modern Games. I know he lacks a change of pace but he should come into his own over this longer distance and he’s been handed a good slot in stall five. He’s got bags of experience for his age and, in the hope Tom Marquand can get him into a nice position early doors and wind him up as soon as the race begins to take shape, there’s every chance he will reverse form with the favourite and take the spoils. I like his chances a lot here. 

MAKE MY DAY (best price 3/1) had shown progressive form for previous stables, such as for Ralph Beckett, where he won three times including at this track and completed his time with his former boss with victory at Ayr off a mark of 90 off top-weight. This expensive purchase for the Gary Moore team has shown promise in all four starts for him, three of those over hurdles before a good second back on the Flat at Ascot. He might have been slightly flattered by the winner at the line but it was still a fair effort in defeat, given the winner was winning for the third time in three starts and almost made it four at York last time, while the third won next time. Rhys Clutterbuck can claim three-pounds on this occasion, which wasn’t the case last time, and given his mount has a lot going for him, he may be hard to beat. 

Stuart Williams and Marco Ghiani have built a great partnership together and I feel as though they have a really good chance of victory with SHANKO (best price 15/2) here. With a solid record of two wins and a second from three starts on the all-weather, it’s surprising he’s not quite matched that form in three starts on the turf but  he did, however, leave an eye-catching impression last time out when beaten less than two length into third at Windsor. That was in a class two event and this is a big drop in grade off a pound lower mark which seems more than fair by the assessor with a nice slot in stall four to navigate. 

His penultimate effort at Ascot can be taken with a pinch of salt as perhaps the stiff finish didn’t play to his strengths despite holding every chance two furlongs out until weakening out of contention late into the piece. He won his first two starts in his career before a half-a-length second to an 89-rated horse and his turf debut in a class two was promising despite only finishing sixth, as the race could hardly have worked out any better which produced three next-time-out winners. On the evidence of what he’s shown to date, a mark of 81 looks well within his capabilities and he looks a serious contender for top honours or, at the very least, reach the frame here. Four places available with most firms. 

CAPTAIN HADDOCK (best price 7/1) looks capable of running another big race at a Scottish venue in the Sky Bet Sunday Series Stayers Handicap. This dual winner on the turf last season is largely consistent and the manner in which he thumped a subsequent three-time winner, who’s now rated 85+, suggests this mark of 80 is lenient. Joanna Mason had to revert to an alternative plan when her mount fluffed the start last time but despite this, he surged home to only be beaten a neck and is weighted to reverse the form with the winner on today’s terms. The return to this longer distance will suit and conditions will be ideal too, so with plenty in his favour, he looks poised to make his presence felt here and possibly go one better with stamina and Scottish venues his forte. 

STORMBRINGER (best price 9/1) doesn’t exactly fit the mould based upon speed figures but he’s a classy sprinter on his day and his record around this course is quite exceptional with three wins from five starts. The last time he compete over this four-furlong distance, he actually beat the favourite Berneuil by nearly two lengths so I’m finding it difficult to see why there price differential is so large this time round. He ran very well to finish a close-up third in a Listed event when last spotted here and should be approaching peak-fitness with two runs this year under his belt. A drop of rain will do him no harm at all either, so with the three places on offer, he is an appealing each-way proposition in this sprint contest. 

Archie Watson has an outstanding strike-rate at this course (8-19, 42%) and his only runner on the card features in the Fillies’ and Mares’ Listed Queen Of Scots Stakes in the shape of TALABAAT (best price 33/1) who’s been priced up wrong by most firms here. A three-time winner when trained in France under various conditions, she was last of seven on British debut but that was her first start in nearly six months so she is sure to have improved a lot since and it’s possible that the first-time cheekpieces will have a positive effect. Hollie Doyle, who ridden her last time, travels to Scotland for her only ride on the card and this filly makes fair each-way appeal at a wild price. 

It’s hard to believe DANZAN (best price 11/1) hasn’t won in four years but that could all change this afternoon providing stall eleven doesn’t cause too much difficulty for Duran Fentiman. Despite an horrific draw at York two weeks ago, he ran a blinder to finish fourth, beaten only three lengths and he’s closely matched with the favourite Tamaska yet, he’s nearly three times the odds of the latter here. He’s got a good record here too, as he’s ran over track and trip four times, and finished no worse than a close-up fifth in any of them, all of which came off higher marks. 

All of those efforts were off marks of 83 (second in a class four), 84 (third in a class three) and 81 and 84 again (fourth and fifth in class two events). In fact, he’s not been beaten by more than two lengths at this course and this is the easiest race he’s been granted at the course. He’s placed so many times off higher marks in better races than this over the years and is down to the lowest mark of his career, 77, off the back of solid effort at York. Whilst he’s on a long losing spell, if everything falls into place, this seven-year-old has a good chance of capitalising on the assessor’s mercy in this event. Four places generally available.

DUTCH DECOY (best price 11/1) wasn’t at his very best on the all-weather last weekend but he’s twice defied this mark before and his penultimate second in a class two event off a couple of pounds higher mark reads solid form for this grade. He has a solid and consistent record in this grade and is drawn very well here in stall five which should allow Joe Fanning to get him into a prominent position in the early stages. He’s dropped into this grade for the first time since scoring off this mark at Leicester and despite this race being littered with well-treated rivals, I can see him being extremely competitive here with four places generally available.