Just two weeks out from the Goodwood Festival, Andy Holding casts his eye over the Lennox Stakes and one horse in particular totally underestimated by the bookies.
Lennox Stakes 2022
Lennox Stakes Entries
As is always the case when looking at any ante-post race, working out who may or may not line up is crucial to finding the value, and the Lennox Stakes is one such event where just a little detective work can whittle down the likely field to manageable numbers.
Current favourite, Aldaary (5/1), is totally reliant on soft ground, so unless there is a dramatic change of events weather-wise between now and the end of the month, William Haggas' gelding is likely to be saved for races at Ascot later in the season.
The other market leader at present, Pogo, makes a good deal more appeal on account of his current wellbeing and suitability to the likely surface. When you add to the mix he has solid course form in the bag, you could easily see his current quotes of 6/1 being a distant memory closer to the day.
Kinross (8/1) comes into the equation on account of his victory in this race last season and his latest effort in the Platinum Jubilee wasn't too bad considering six-furlongs is a trip short of his optimum.
Whether last year's runner-up, Creative Force (12/1), will make the gig following his brave effort in the July Cup is open to question, so it could be that Godolphin are represented by Modern News (8/1). Although his last four runs have all come over a mile, he does have plenty of solid performances under his belt over a furlong shorter and appears to be one of the stronger four-year-old candidates on all known form.
July Cup heroine Alcohol Free (10/1 best) is almost certain not to run, while it would be a surprise if Brad The Brief (also 10s) were to be asked to deviate from his appreciation of six furlong races.
Lennox Stakes Ante-Post Tip
The one, however, who seems to have been totally underestimated by the bookmakers is SACRED. Although she didn't run too badly on her only try over a mile in last season's 1000 Guineas, it soon became apparent that seven-furlongs was her optimum based on her performance in the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury next time.
Clocking a massive speed figure despite seemingly winning with plenty left in the tank, it's been a shame we've only seen her once since and that came in the Group 1 Platinum Jubilee at the Royal meeting a month ago.
Staying on best of all late on, she hit the line to suggest stepping back up in trip would reap rewards further down the line and this race seems the logical step to take for a filly who requires fast ground to be at her best.
The Prix Maurice De Gheest at Deauville during August over six-and-a-half furlongs would be the other possible target for connections to consider, but whether she would have her ideal conditions over in France is anyone's guess.
Either way, there's simply no way she should be anywhere near as big as her current quotes of 20/1 for the Goodwood heat and she's worth a few quid each-way in the hope she does makes the gig.
