Tuesday Racing Tips from Architect

I am quite confident Ruth Carr’s REPUTATION (best price 3/1) can win the Scottish Racing Academy Handicap. The nine-year-old has gone close in four of his last five starts and has actually been unlucky not to win his last three starts. I napped him at 18/1 at Beverley, where he was touched off by just a head and he undoubtedly would have won without traffic problems, as he was forced to sit and suffer a furlong out behind a wall of horses before flying home when switched outside to nearly take the spoils. 

Next time out, he was given too much to do when a strong-finishing third at Thirsk having been held-up in last, which is customarily his run-style, and backed up those two efforts with another place, this time when a solid close-up third here last time, where the one mile distance probably stretched him, so the drop in trip off the same mark looks a positive move here. Moreover, his figures in class four company or lower on decent ground reads 231212232, which is an additional bonus to his strong credentials. This will be only his third time in a class five event, as all of his previous wins, placed efforts and other courageous runs in defeat have been off marks in the 80’s plus. 

In addition, the veteran was rated as high as 97 a few years ago when competing in mostly class two events and now finds himself thirteen pounds below his last winning mark. On the balance of his figures, overall form, weight and ratings, he’s the best horse in this race so despite conceding weight all round, this looks a fantastic opportunity for him to gain reward for his consistency this year and finally get his head back in front under James Sullivan. In the likelihood of tracking potential pace-setter Celestial Star, he can collaborate all of his attributes and back-class to prove he’s too good for these and gain an overdue victory. 

This is an extremely weak race on paper and this presents the Bryan Smart-trained PALAZZO (best price 17/2) to finally do some damage off a basement mark on the turf. All four of his career wins have been on the all-weather, with the last of those last February, but he’s seven pounds below his last winning mark and has won more races than all of these put together, which gives him a distinct edge. He’s not been disgraced in all three runs in defeat this year on the all-weather, smarting midfield in each of them, and reverts to the turf off a much lower mark. 

What’s really attracted me to him for this race is the last time he competed on the turf on similar ground, is the fact that he split two horses who are rated 70 plus and the third and fourth from that race won last-time-out off marks of 68 and 72 respectively. That was in a class five race too, so he’s going to find this class six easier and Graham Lee is in the saddle. If he gets a strong pace that is required, he could easily make the most of this drop in grade on his turf return and capitalise on this lenient-looking mark of 50 for his in-form handler. 

I was really impressed with the way Ruth Carr’s CITY WANDERER (best price 5/2) went from pillar-to-post over course-and-distance last time to beat Will He Dance and a two pounds rise seems lenient. His victory can be marked up, as he raced keenly throughout and had every right to fall back through the field under pressure given those excursions, but he didn’t, as he kept on galloping to the line. 

I thought he won with quite a bit in hand that day and, although he was given a soft lead, that is likely to be the case again here. All three of his previous wins were in the summer so this is clearly his time of year and given the fact he’s the only one of these to arrive in winning form, he can score again here and should be a clear favourite in my opinion.