Wednesday Racing Tips from Architect

Charlie Appleby’s SECRET STATE (best price 5/2) is improving at a rate of knots and has now won three of his last four starts, most recently when giving weight and a beating to subsequent Group 3 winner Deauville Legend at Royal Ascot last time in the King George. He seemed to appreciate the step up in distance and despite going up seven-pounds, connections clearly feel he has more to offer in handicaps before going into pattern-class events at some point. He will have to concede weight all round, but he’s hardy, knows how to win and brings the best piece of form into the race, so he gets the main vote. 

At an each-way price in the opener, I’ll have a few quid on SURREY MIST (best price 10/1) each-way, who wasn’t suited to how the race was run last time at Ascot but plugged onto finish fourth and the form looks reasonable given the runner-up Etonian ran well very here yesterday. He went close to winning the London Gold Cup at Newbury earlier in the campaign and connections have booked Hollie Doyle to ride here, which is a good sign. This race should be run to suit and he’s better off at the weights with the favourite too, so there’s optimism about this course suiting his run style back over a better distance. With firms offering four places generally, he’s the each-way choice with more to come.  

I am really surprised HELLO YOU (best price 12/1) isn’t trading shorter with firms for this race, given she has much the best form of these, courtesy of her easy victory over 1,000 Guineas winner Cachet in a Group Two over this distance alongside her close-up second in the Breeders’ Cup. 

She endured a horrible passage in the Jersey Stakes last time at Royal Ascot, but still ran well to finish eighth and she was unlucky not to finish closer than fourth on her last visit to this course last term when a place behind subsequent Group One winner Prosperous Voyage which reads well in the context of this race. 

She’s drawn very nicely in stall three and is back against her own sex, which will be a lot easier for her and, interestingly, she remains the second joint-highest rated of these. She’s reported to be in a ‘great place’ by her handler, so if he gets a clear sight of things, she could go very close here. Five places available with Bet365, PaddyPower, 888Sport, BetFair and SkyBet. 

Karl Burke has two in this race with the Oscula the leading hope based upon the odds and being turned out quickly after another solid effort last time but HONEY SWEET (best price 25/1) is an attractive each-way price and arrives here on the back of an excellent second to her stablemate. 

She was behind the former at Carlisle last time but if you go back and watch that race, she was desperately unlucky not to finish closer as she was denied a clear run twice when travelling well and took an age to get motoring before flying home to only be beaten two lengths. Her trainer has always seen her as a long-term project and I assume this race has been her main target all season. 

This race will be run to suit, as she likes to come from behind and the return to seven is a good move. I don’t think she has as much to find with most of these as the ratings suggest, so with bookmakers paying five places such as Bet365, PaddyPower, 888Sport, BetFair and SkyBet, she is taken to outrun her odds. 

Rocket Rodney is the most likely winner but looking for some value, I am drawn to the claims of TRILLIUM (best price 8/1) who has vastly been underestimated here. I know the form of her debut second at this course was slightly let down yesterday, but she was seriously impressive at Newbury last time. She won in the style of a pattern-class filly, as she showed a good turn of foot and was eased down in the closing stages. 

The fact that her trainer is rolling the rice over five furlongs here suggests the confidence is high in her ability to handle the minimum distance. She showed lots of speed the last day and whilst she was caught napping here on debut, Pat Dobbs will make sure he gets her rolling early doors. It might be asking a lot for her to beat the favourite, but she’s more than good enough to reach the frame on the evidence she’s displayed in her two starts. She makes plenty of each-way appeal at generous odds. 

A bit of a head scratcher at first glance this race but I think NATASHA (best price 7/2) is a really solid each-way muggy bet in this. If she doesn’t win and she places then we will have a tiny loss in this race but I would rather take that risk than back her to win. However, she’s the clear highest rated in the field at 94 and her masterful trainer clearly thinks highly of her which is why she contested a Group One in France on her final start last year. 

The ground was ultimately too soft for her that day but returned to better ground when conceding fitness at Nottingham saw her run a satisfactory race in third and she’s sure to strip fitter for that reappearance. Whether her mark is inflated, I’m not sure, but she’s very well-bred, has Frankie in the saddle and I cannot see her out of the frame back over this shorter distance. If given a soft lead, she might be difficult to overhaul here if Frankie can judge the fractions right. Rousay was feared but I just don’t think she’s good enough to win this race. 

The Platinum Queen, Union Court and All The Time are the obvious main players on the form available but I find it fascinating to see CRUISE (best price 10/1) take aim at this race on just her second career start. Richard Hannon wouldn’t be running her in this unless he thought she was capable of running very well and the drop back to five should ideally suit, as she showed loads of speed when fourth on debut last time. She wasn’t too far behind Albany third Ivory Madonna and that run should have strengthened her up both physically and mentally ahead of today’s assignment. I think she’s got a great each-way chance and is the unknown package in this event as we don’t know how good she could be. 

This is, as expected, a quality renewal of the Galway Plate. I am interested in the bottom-weight and Jessica Harrington-trained DISCORDANTLY (best price 14/1), who ran a very good race to finish a close-up second to last year’s winner of this race Royal Rendezvous last-time-out. He’s only a pound higher here and his team could hardly be in better form either with loads of winners at this meeting this week already. He won by thirteen lengths on his only previous visit to this course, where he jumped and travelled well and, off a nice weight from a mark that’s not beyond him with Dennis O’Regan booked to ride, he’s of definite interest in the feature race at a big price with a lot of firms paying six places. 

The Gavin Cromwell-trained GABYNAKO (best price 9/1) was slightly disappointing last time but he’s better than that and is better judged on his earlier form which includes a second in the Arkle at Cheltenham and a second in the Drinmore, which he should have won. This dual Grade 1 runner-up makes his handicap debut off 155, which won’t be easy, but the seven-year-old brings a touch of class to this event and connections have clearly had him aimed at this race for a few months. He was only a head behind Grand National winner Noble Yeats here on chase debut (again should have won) and had Magic Daze well beaten in third. He will be suited to this longer distance, as he beat a Grade 1 winner over 2m5f last November, so in the hope he can put in a fluent round of jumping, it’s hard not see this high level performer being involved with six places generally available. 

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