Thursday Racing Tips from Architect

The Racing League card at Doncaster looks very difficult but does offer value and, in the opener, I find Rae Guest’s CRY HAVOC (best price 25/1) the most interesting runner in the field at double-figure odds. She has predominantly been kept to the all-weather so far in her career, in which she has gained all of her three wins on the surface and while she’s remained winless for nearly two years, the assessor has kindly let her into today’s race off a mark of 79. 

What’s really drawn me into her credentials for this large-field contest though, is the only previous time she ran on the turf, she finished third over seven furlongs at Newmarket in a class-two off a mark of 92 and this is a drop in grade off a much reduced mark. There were positives to glean from that display and why we haven’t seen her on the turf since, I’m not sure, but perhaps her trainer has deliberately and carefully plotted a long-term route to a return to the grass. 

I know she’s not been able to get her head in front for a while, but she’s shaped better than the bare results have suggested in all her starts this year and even come close to winning twice from higher marks. She was set a stiff examination on her one and only previous try over a mile and while she finished well down the field, that effort proved inconclusive in regards to her stamina, as it was a good-quality Listed event. 

Furthermore, it looked as though something went amiss (looked to be coming with a serious challenge until looking uncomfortable) rather than lack of stamina for the distance. However, she remains completely unexposed on just her second start on the turf and she could have been found an easier engagement elsewhere, so this race is likely to have been a target. 

Another positive towards her claims is that she’s drawn in stall 13 and is her trainer’s only runner of the day with Cameron Noble in the saddle (only ride) too. She is bound to get a really strong pace to aim at and, if she does get the breaks when required, this mare by War Command could be dangerous to discount at wild odds off an attractive mark with Bet65, Hills, SkyBet paying five places and most other firms offering four. 

It’s surprising that Jessica Harrington’s TAURAN SHAMAN (best price 7/2) has only won once from fifteen starts since winning his first two starts but he likes this course and has a good chance of carrying top-weight to success. He won over course-and-distance last May when carrying a big weight to beat Mosala and, coincidentally, met that same rival again on his last trip here when the places were marginally reversed. 

He probably would have beaten him again that day with a better start and that was off a mark of 96, which is the same mark as the one he will compete off today. Another slow start proved costly on his seasonal reappearance at Cork but he was still only beaten a couple of lengths, finishing seventh of twenty, and he should strip fitter. He is the class act in the field, particularly at this course anyway, and he will be difficult to beat if anywhere near his best. 

ALREHB (best price 8/1) wasn’t able to justify favouritism last time but he’s better than that and is now only a pound higher than when last successful. He won three times and finished second three times in his first seven starts and he’s only the same mark as when narrowly denied at Haydock in a class-two event back in April. 

He could only finish midfield in the Victoria Cup at Ascot but the fact that he was sent off a single-figure price tells me that a lot better was expected. Besides that effort, however, he’s two-from-two over seven and Sean Levey takes over the reins in this contest. With more to come, he must be thereabouts with Bet365, Hills, SkyBet and BetFair paying five places. 

MARSHAL DAN (best price 9/1) is a really consistent and solid performer, who has produced three really good efforts in defeat this year, hitting the frame in each of them off this mark. All three efforts have been in class two-events and he will essentially appreciate today’s drop in grade off the same mark. He rarely gets beaten far in the races he doesn’t win and he’s only a pound higher than when beating a 99-rated horse at Sandown last year, which again, was in a higher grade event than today’s contest. All three efforts this year have worked out strongly, firstly, when right in behind Northern Express at Musselburgh, who’s won and placed in large-field handicaps since. 

He did well to get so close to winning that race having set a furious gallop from the start. He then pushed the 97-rated Montassib at Goodwood, who’s placed in the Buckingham Palace and Bunbury Cup since before running well to finish third behind Tacarib Bay and Fools Rush In. That form is strong, as the winner has gone close since, while the runner-up has subsequently scored at Chester. The seven-year-old drops in grade today and is drawn well in stall 4 with Kevin Stott booked to ride. If Kevin can judge the fractions right, his mount could be hard to topple here at decent odds. Bet365, Hills, SkyBet and BetFair are paying five places. 

Beamish extended his unbeaten record to three when scraping a Listed event last time but trainer Dermot Weld has a good record in this, who’s won two of the last four renewals, and his sole representative this year DUKE DE SESSA (best price 15/2) has a big chance of making it win number three with his age allowance taken into consideration. He looked a high-class prospect in the making last season when winning second-time-out in a maiden before taking a Group Three at this venue. 

In between those two runs, he finished sixth in the Group One National Stakes behind Native Trail and then caught the eye on his return back in April, where he stayed on strongly to take third. He wasn’t disgraced when fifth behind Stone Age next time before a running-on fifth in the Irish 1,000 Guineas. He lost little in defeat when second to Aikhal last time in the Group Three International Stakes, seeing his race out strongly, and that form looks useful as he had the likes of Rumble Of Thunder and Mac Swiney in behind. 

This will be his first attempt at 1m4f, but he’s bred to stay a bit further, has the course form, and he’s right in the mix based upon official ratings. If you bring his three-year-old allowance into effect, he’s the best off at the weights here, getting a valuable seven-pounds and upwards from all bar one runner. He hasn’t run on ground this fast before, but he’s a classy horse, and if he appreciates the longer distance, he could be tough to handle in the latter stages under Chris Hayes. 

BLACK FRIDAY (best price 10/1) was below his best when last spotted here but, overall, he’s got a great record at this course and the last time he ran over seven, he finished a close-up fourth of 12 off a mark of 86. He’s two-pounds lower here and is a pound below his last winning mark, whilst acknowledging that this isn’t the strongest of events he’s competed in at this venue. 

He gets on really well with this rider and pushed a 100-rated horse here on his seasonal return back in April. He has shaped better than the beaten margin has indicated the last two times and drops into this grade for the first time since scoring at Pontefract. From a good draw in stall 3 with conditions ideal and this race being a lot easier than of late, he could easily make a bold bid to potentially gain a fourth course win for connections. 

MOJOMAKER (best price 17/2) showed some very smart form as a two-year-old, in which he was second in the Dragon Stakes, fifth in the Group Three Molecomb, fifth in the Premier Yearling Stakes and fourth in the two-year-old trophy at Redcar. His form has been a little bit patchy this year but his best two efforts of the campaign have come over course-and-distance, where he’s been beaten just a ‘nose’ and a ‘neck’ in each of those. 

His latest effort was the first time he wore cheekpieces and Gavin Ryan is in the saddle this time, who could unlock the key to this capable sprinter. This three-year-old gets his favoured conditions, likes this course and will get a good pace to aim at too, so off the same mark as when narrowly denied here last time, he’s a serious each-way contender with Bet365, Hills and SkyBet paying five and most other firms offering four places. 

In the finale, I’ll take a chance on Jim Goldie’s ANNANDALE (best price 9/1) who’s five pounds lower than when finishing fourth over course-and-distance back in March and his latest effort in the Northumberland Vase can be excused as he failed to stay the distance. He is now six-pounds below his last winning mark and the return to faster ground will suit. 

His form figures on going that reads good to firm reads 21324 and he has the course form too, which always counts for plenty. He needs to bounce back after a couple of below-par efforts, but back over this distance on this ground should enable him to be competitive off this mark against Good Birthday. Bet365, Hills and SkyBet pay five and most other firms offer four places.