Thursday Racing Tips from Architect

Karl Burke has an excellent recent record in this nursery event and surely if CATHY COME HOME (best price 5/1) handles the ground, she will make a big impact in this race. She won easily on debut at Musselburgh, displaying a good turn of foot, and ran with credit when eighth of 16 in the Group Three Albany at Royal Ascot on her next start behind Meditate. She then didn’t get the clearest of passages when midfield in a valuable race at York and will find this race a lot easier. She has to give plenty of weight to these, but she’s the clear highest rated runner in the field and, provided she gets a clear run this time round, I cannot see how she doesn’t make her presence felt here with three places generally available. 

LORD RAPSCALLION (best price 7/2) is on the verge of a first success in the UK and came within a neck of winning over course-and-distance in a class three event ten days ago off this mark. He did well to get as close as he did considering he had to race wide throughout and drops into this grade from a good draw in stall three. He’s ran well on all three visits here now in class two and three events, so he’s going to find today’s opponents a lot easier and Ben Curtis has been booked to ride. The only concern would be the fact that he disappointed the last time he contested soft ground but against this opposition, he might get away with it and worth one more chance at the odds to hopefully get his head in front. 

Karl Burke has a good chance in this race too, and while Magical Sunset was impressive on debut in beating a well-regarded sort, who’s won easily since, she might find it difficult to beat COLD CASE (best price 4/1). He’s won and made the frame in all four starts to date and ran a huge race to finish third in the Group Two Gimcrack Stakes last time. That is seriously strong form in the context of this easier assignment, as he had the likes of Chateau and Royal Scotsman in behind, who are very good horses. He won’t mind any rain and although his odds are only on offer from a win point of view, he is the one to beat and can beat Magical Sunset. 

BELIEVE IN LOVE (best price 8/1) wasn’t far behind Eshaada in the Lancashire Oaks and might be able to bridge the gap at this course, which will suit better. She had previously won a Group Three at York and came close to winning the Group 1 Qatar Prix de Royallieu last year in Paris when beaten just a head, so she’s already established herself to be a genuine top-performer, especially when the ground is on the softish side. She was only third in this race last year but with connections likely to have targeted her at this race all year again, she’s a major threat to the favourite under Andrea Atzeni, especially if the rain can continue to arrive. 

Richard Fahey’s ADMIRAL D (best price 11/2) was twice a winner at two on soft ground and has shaped well in defeat in all starts this year, including when faring best of those held up last time, beaten under three lengths. His connections are already thinking of supplementing him for the Ayr Gold Cup if he can run a big race here and that’s definitely possible with this contest sure to be run to suit his run style. He is only a pound higher than when second to Lethal Levi at Newmarket and is open to improvement in the handicapping scenario, so in the hope he doesn’t get himself too far detached, and Oisin Orr can navigate a smooth passage, his customary power-packed late surge should see him competitive here. 

HARROW (best price 12/1) hasn’t been at his best the last three times but the return to this trip should at least spark a revival, especially when you take into account that his last attempt at this trip resulted with a good third behind Modern Games in a Group Three and this is a significant drop in grade compared to that harder race. His overall record over this trip reads 2113 from four starts and he even beat the 108-rated Ever Given on his last visit here in the valuable two-year-old race, so will have no issues in regards to the course. He had previously beat Alflaila too, who’s won two races this year, including in a Group Three last time, to advertise the strength of the form. If he can return to the form of any of those two wins, he should go extremely well here off an attractive mark of 93, which is more than within his capabilities. 

It’s been two years since INDIAN SOUNDS (best price 13/2) last tasted success but he’s been ultra-solid in defeat since in stronger events than today’s race and while he was a never-nearer fifth at Beverley last time, the assessor has given him a great chance off this two pounds lower mark. He handles all types of conditions and has shaped much better than the results have indicated this year. All three of his starts here, which have been over course-and-distance, have all been in class two-three events off marks between 86-90. That bodes well for his chances in this race, as this presents a drop in class off a mark of 75, and there have been a lot of positives to take from a few of his runs in the last few months. Ideally drawn well in stall three, he should be able to run a big race with four places widely available.

The George Scott-trained PRYDWEN (NAP) (best price 5/2) should have won when third at Lingfield last time, where he was given too much to do from the back of the field and almost took the spoils from a position that looked unlikely on the turn for home. His performance can be upgraded to the highest extent as not only did he have to come from well off the pace, but he was forced wide throughout before making relentless progress inside the final furlong to only be beaten half-a-length, recording a really quick backend sectional too. The four-year-old should be well-suited to this extra furlong looking at his pedigree and the way he tends to hit the line strongly in his races. His claims are further strengthened here because the first and second from last time, whom he should have beaten, have both won since, so off the same mark, compensation awaits.