Today's Tote Placepot Tips for Listowel

Leg 1 Selections: The Model Kingdom 

No Risk No Fun and The Short Go arrive with significant potential but even though they both could easily take higher rank in due course, they might find the mare’ THE MODEL KINGDOM too hot to handle here. Noel Meade’s charge was classy in bumpers, in which she made it three-from-three in a Punchestown Grade 3 in April. That form already has loads of substance as the horse who was back in fourth, Nikini, has won twice in this sphere since, including at this meeting two days ago. She lost her unbeaten record on her Flat debut during the spring when sent off odds-on favourite, but there was a valid excuse for her defeat, where she practically lost the race at the start when slowly away and you cannot afford to give away that much ground in any race. I think she’s the best horse in this race, as her bumper form is far superior to what her two market rivals have achieved, so if her jumping can pass the test, she is a major player in the opener. I can envisage this talented individual taking high rank amongst the mares’ division this term for Noel Meade. 

Leg 2 Selections: Amir Kabir

Gordon Elliott is doubly-represented here with Ted Hastings worth a mention having won three of his four starts over hurdles. That said, AMIR KABIR, who has the services of Davy Russell, gets the vote. A smart performer on the Flat, in which he was rated as high as 87, this five-year-old made a winning hurdles debut at Roscommon when faced with ‘good ground’ and ran a big race to finish a close-up second in a Listed event next-time-out. With a tidier jump at the final hurdle, I think he would have taken the scalp of eventual winner Flaming Moon. He’s now four-pounds better off with the winner, so there’s every reason to think he will turn the tables in this race. I wouldn’t rule out the filly STAKE OUT at large odds, who is related to the smart Paloma Blue and her trainer is 4-11 here in the last five seasons, which calculates to an impressive 36% strike-rate. This is a tough starting point to make her hurdles debut but connections seem keen to roll the dice and it would come as no surprise to see her exceed market expectations. 

Leg 3 Selections: Shoot First 

I really like the claims of SHOOT FIRST, who returned a very convincing winner at Tipperary in June and ran a blinder to finish a clear second to Rock Road at the Galway Festival on his handicap debut. He was travelling just as smoothly as Rock Road at Galway last time but met a lot of interference when the race started to develop and he ended up being shuffled to nearly back of the field whereas the winner had clear daylight outside of the field. 

To his credit, however, he made relentless progress to pass all but one of his rivals and closed the gap on the eventual winner to six lengths at the line. I do think he would have beaten the winner with a clear run, so while he’s gone up five pounds, the step up in trip to three miles looks a positive move. His trainer Charles Byrnes went close to winning the race four years ago when he had the second Sky Marshal, so he has clearly had this race in mind for this progressive youngster. 

Leg 4 Selections: Darrens Hope 

Robert Murphy’s DARRENS HOPE is no doubt the best mare in this race based on form and ratings and is a warm favourite to land the spoils in this moderate contest. She was ultra-consistent over hurdles and has translated her consistency to this sphere this year. She’s made the frame in multiple Graded/Listed events so far in her career and has won a Grade Three and Listed events too under various conditions. 

She’s been highly-tried this year and should be fully tuned-up following a four-month break here. This mare won her penultimate start easily by seven-lengths and ran a cracker to finish runner-up when last spotted over a trip that possibly stretched her stamina. The drop back in distance here should suit better and her form figures on good ground is solid. She should be much too good for these if anywhere near just 90% fit let alone 100%. 

Leg 5 Selections: The Jam Man, Embittered, Discordantly 

THE JAM MAN remains lightly-raced for his age and while his last win was two years ago, he did trounce a good-quality field in the Troytown that day by eighteen lengths. He’s been campaigned mostly over hurdles and on the Flat since and his only run over fences since that career-best performance was when midfield in the Galway Plate. I thought he ran well considering he was badly hampered at the first fence and was hampered again five out when making smooth progress through the field. The nine-year-old has clearly been aimed at this race and warmed for this with a decent fifth at Clonmel on the Flat three weeks ago. His record over three miles with ‘good’ in the description reads 111 and the cheek-pieces will be refitted, which is a good sign. 

Joseph O’Brien trained the winner of this race twelve months ago and I like his EMBITTERED, who is handicapped to go well here. He ran a very decent race when eighth of 20 in the Galway Hurdle when last spotted and would have finished a lot closer without a bad mistake at the last. This will be his first attempt at three miles, so while his stamina is far from confirmed, the fact he gets into this race off a tiny weight on good ground could see him extremely competitive. He is five-pounds lower than when seventh in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival on ground he hated and is much better off at the weights with Hurricane Georgie here, whom he’s previously beaten multiple times on worse terms. There are a lot of positives about his chances. 

Things just haven’t gone right for Jessica Harrington’s DISCORDANTLY this year but I really do believe he has the class to win a valuable pot of this nature when everything falls into place. He ran a tremendous race to finish a staying-on sixth in the Galway Plate considering he was hampered at the start and lost interest in the race until the final couple of furlongs. He then fell when going well at Killarney next time and I wouldn’t read too much into his latest hurdles run, as that was used as a confidence booster. The assessor has left him on the same mark as when sixth at Galway and he’s better off at the weights with three of these who were in front of him. He should be thereabouts. 

Leg 6 Selections: Bardenstown Lad, Bigz Belief

BARDENSTOWN LAD developed into a high-class stayer in the novice division last term, with the highlight being in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival in March when third behind The Nice Guy. He fell early on behind that same rival next time in back in Ireland but this seven-year-old has the best form on offer and he’ll relish the ground on his chase debut. He is three-from-three over 2m6f or further on good ground, so if he jumps well, I can see him outclassing these and he should be a lot shorter in the betting. He goes well fresh too (two-from-two). 

I wouldn’t discount BIGZ BELIEF though, who was a fair hurdler himself last term and is likely to be ridden from the front again here. He shaped well for a long way in the Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham Festival when last spotted and is sure to have been well-prepared for his chase debut here. He’ll no doubt be a big price, given he’s not really bred to make a chaser, but he did beat subsequent Galway Hurdle winner Golden Spear when last successful and that form gives him a good chance of hitting the frame here if he can jump well. His jumping was rather hit-and-miss over hurdles but perhaps he’ll surprise us and advance his form over the bigger obstacles.