Wednesday Racing Tips from Architect

Gordon Elliott has a great chance here with AMIR KABIR (best price 9/4), who has the services of Davy Russell, gets the vote. A smart performer on the Flat, in which he was rated as high as 87, this five-year-old made a winning hurdles debut at Roscommon when faced with ‘good ground’ and ran a big race to finish a close-up second in a Listed event next-time-out. 

With a tidier jump at the final hurdle, I think he would have taken the scalp of eventual winner Flaming Moon. He seemed to briefly lose momentum but rallied strongly in the closing stages to only be beaten half-a-length. The good news though, is that he’s now four-pounds better off with the winner, so there’s every reason to think he will turn the tables in this race, as especially with a more polished round of jumping, and that’s without recognising he is open to more improvement. He has major claims here. 

I wouldn’t rule out the filly STAKE OUT (best price 40/1) at large odds, who is related to the smart Paloma Blue and her trainer is 4-11 here in the last five seasons, which calculates to an impressive 36% strike-rate. This is a tough starting point to make her hurdles debut but connections seem keen to roll the dice and it would come as no surprise to see her exceed market expectations here. She is John Kiely’s only runner on the card and is my each-way cover bet in this race. 

I really like the claims of SHOOT FIRST (best price (NAP) 11/4) who returned a very convincing winner at Tipperary in June and ran a blinder to finish a clear second to Rock Road at the Galway Festival on his handicap debut. He was travelling just as smoothly as Rock Road at Galway last time but met a lot of interference when the race started to develop and he ended up being shuffled to nearly back of the field whereas the winner had clear daylight outside of the field. 

To his credit, however, he made relentless progress to pass all but one of his rivals and closed the gap on the eventual winner to six lengths at the line. I do think he would have beaten the winner with a clear run, so while he’s gone up five pounds, the step up in trip to three miles looks a positive move. His trainer Charles Byrnes went close to winning the race four years ago when he had the second Sky Marshal, but I reckon this improving youngster can surpass this mark of 124 and is fancied to emerge as the winner here. 

THE JAM MAN (best price 22/1) remains lightly-raced for his age and while his last win was two years ago, he did trounce a good-quality field in the Troytown that day by eighteen lengths. He’s been campaigned mostly over hurdles and on the Flat since and his only run over fences since that career-best performance was when midfield in the Galway Plate. I thought he ran well considering he was badly hampered at the first fence and was hampered again five out when making smooth progress through the field. 

The nine-year-old has clearly been aimed at this race and warmed up for this with a decent fifth at Clonmel on the Flat three weeks ago. His record over three miles with ‘good’ in the description reads 111 and the cheek-pieces will be refitted, which is a good sign. He’s back on an attractive mark and I get the impression this course over this trip will suit. Off a low weight, with Kevin Sexton maintaining the partnership, and knowing he ticks a lot of boxes, he makes plenty of appeal at large odds with six places widely available. 

Joseph O’Brien trained the winner of this race twelve months ago and I like his EMBITTERED (best price 16/1), who is handicapped to go well here. He ran a very decent race when eighth of 20 in the Galway Hurdle when last spotted and would have finished a lot closer without a bad mistake at the last. This will be his first attempt at three miles, so while his stamina is far from confirmed, the fact he gets into this race off a tiny weight on good ground could see him extremely competitive. 

He is five-pounds lower than when seventh in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival on ground he hated and he’s so much better off at the weights with Hurricane Georgie here, whom he’s previously beaten multiple times on worse terms. There are a lot of positives about his chances, so barring accidents, he should go well in this competitive event. Six places widely available. 

BARDENSTOWN LAD (best price 7/4) developed into a high-class stayer in the novice division last term, with the highlight being his third in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival in March behind The Nice Guy, who I think will be a genuine Cheltenham Gold Cup contender for connections in years to come. He fell early on behind that same rival next time back in Ireland but this seven-year-old has the best form on offer and he’ll relish the ground on his chase debut. He is three-from-three over 2m6f or further on good ground, so if he jumps well, I can see him outclassing these and he should be a lot shorter in the betting. He goes well fresh too (two-from-two) which bodes well for his chances. I am surprised Life In The Park is so close to him in the market to be honest. 

I wouldn’t discount BIGZ BELIEF (best price 25/1) though, who was a fair hurdler himself last term and is likely to be ridden from the front again here. He shaped well for a long way in the Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham Festival when last spotted and is sure to have been well-prepared for his chase debut here. He’ll no doubt be a big price, given he’s not really bred to make a chaser, but he did beat subsequent Galway Hurdle winner Golden Spear when last successful and that form gives him a good chance of hitting the frame here if he can jump well. His jumping was rather hit-and-miss over hurdles but perhaps he’ll surprise us and advance his form over the bigger obstacles with lots in his favour. He’s a little overpriced in my view.