Sunday Racing Tips from Architect

HAUTE ESTIME (best price 2/1) returned a beaten favourite on her chase debut at Kelso but she’s sure to have learnt a lot and her third in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices' Hurdle is decent form in the context of this race as it was her first start over three miles. With more to come, and that latest chase debut effort under her belt, Lucinda Russell and Derek Dox can take the opener with this mare by Walk In The Park. 

Does He Know likes it here and will be fancied to run well off top-weight but his trainer has expressed that this is basically “plan D” and I think he’s worth taking on at the odds. I am going to stick with two strong stayers, who could be suited to this race. Firstly, the Lucinda Russell-trained MIGHTY THUNDER (best price 20/1), who I know has been pulled up in three of his last four starts but is back on the same mark as when winning last year’s Scottish Grand National. He has undergone a breathing operation since he was last spotted, which could help, and his record fresh isn’t too bad either. If connections have somehow got him back to something near his best, he could easily beat these. 

THE MIGHTY DON (best price 15/2) tends to hit a flat spot and isn’t the most trustworthy of individuals but he showed his talent in this race last year when pushing the classy Yala Enki within a length when second despite a sketchy round of jumping and is seven pounds lower this time around against easier opponents. His comeback run after nine months off was needed at Chepstow and connections have taken the exact same route, so there’s every chance he’ll be spot on for today’s race. 

He will love the ground and has generally run well here over the years. He would have gone close to winning here last April off a ten pounds higher mark when still in front before making a mess of the second last fence, so he’s undoubtedly well-treated off a career-low chase mark and James Davies knows him well. He is proven over the trip, likes the course, and gets his ground, so in the hope he can put it all together, especially in the jumping department, he is weighted to go very well again here. 

SEVERANCE (best price 10/1) has been a model of consistency in big-field handicaps and warmed up for this with an excellent third in the Welsh Champion Hurdle on his return last time when competing from four pounds out of the handicap. He travelled well throughout and looked like he was going to win at one stage before a lack of a run told in the closing stages. He did well to split last season’s Betfair Hurdle winner Glory And Fortune and last season’s County Hurdle third Milkwood. 

He was tad unlucky when a narrow second to Cormier over course-and-distance in January, where he boxed in on the home turn and the winner had a dream passage outside and up the stands rail. His second at Haydock, Aintree and fourth at Kelso are other good pieces of form and the assessor has kept him on the same mark as when third last time. He’ll get the required strong gallop, which will suit as he’s a strong-traveller and with his stable in great form, he could all set to finally collect a valuable pot that he’s been craving for a while. Four places widely available.

Alan King has a great record in this race and I quite like his HARBOUR LAKE (best price 10/1) who’s won all of his completed starts and has only been raised five pounds for winning with much more in hand than the margin indicated last time. He’s two-from-two over this trip and has proven himself over further, so a strongly-run race over this trip should be right up his street. He ticks a lot of boxes for this race and should be suited to the course, while Tom Cannon has enjoyed a good weekend already and his confidence will be high heading into this race. With a lot more to come, and most firms offering four places, this six-year-old has a great each-way chance. 

This isn’t the strongest of renewals of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle trials and while Iberico Lad has to be respected, pitched into this Grade Two on his hurdles debut, his odds are a bit slim and preference goes to SPRINGWELL BAY (best price 11/4). He was runner-up in a good-quality bumper on debut in Ireland and then bolted up on debut for Jonjo O’Neill at Market Rasen by fourteen lengths. He then made his hurdles debut after an eleven month absence at Carlisle last month and while the time-figure wasn’t fast, he won with loads to spare. 

His performance can be upgraded to some extent too, as the race was run at a slow pace but his jumping was flawless and he cruised into the lead before showing a nice turn of foot to win by a widening three lengths. This is obviously a deeper race and the second from that latest success has been beaten since but he looks really smart and a stronger pace here will only increase his chances. He must have excellent claims with his best days ahead of him. 

An excellent bumper race to conclude the three-day meeting, where a case can be made for most of these runners. However, I was quite taken with the way CAPE VIDAL (best price 7/1) put the race to bed on debut, winning by seven lengths without coming out of second gear. Anything Honeyball has a good record in bumpers and has done well at this venue before, so this five-year-old is probably above-average and could make his presence felt in this grade. 

Fergal O’Brien is known for doing very well bumper events at this venue and of course elsewhere so while his other runner Crambo has to be respected, I do quite like his SCHOOL DAYS OVER (best price 11/1), who overcame traffic difficulties to make a winning start under rules last time. 

He was held-up off the pace and while he briefly didn’t get a clear passage when the taps were turned on, the fact that he not only had to go wide around the field but found another gear to wear down Egbert and win a shade comfortably was a really smart performance. This stiff course should play to his strengths and he’s open to considerable improvement, so he’s one I’m interested in here.