Sunday Racing Tips from Andy Holding

The classy Bear Ghylls is sure to be a popular choice among punters following his encouraging chase debut at Carlisle, but whether today’s track proves ideal for such a big horse is open to debate and because of that nagging doubt, he’s passed over in favour of ARIZONA CARDINAL (best price 5-1).

A dual winner over hurdles last season, there was also a few bumps in the road for Stuart Edmonds’ gelding and given that he was subjected to wind surgery at the end of the campaign, it’s easy to see why he sometimes failed to deliver the goods.

You couldn’t, however, fault his display on chase debut at Bangor last month and on the evidence of that performance, he promises to be much better in this new discipline. The way he jumped and travelled before idling in the closing stages at the Welsh venue suggested he had more in hand than the official winning margin and having already proving a liking for today’s track twice last season, the son of Kayf Tara appeals as a solid each-way alternative to the favourite.

GUSTAVIAN (best price 12-1) hails from a stable in terrific form at present and with many of Anthony Honeyball’s inmates also managing to score first time out, a chance is taken his representative in this decent-looking novices’ handicap chase can defy top weight.

A model of consistency throughout his career, the son of Mahler failed to get rewarded for several decent shifts he put in on his first season as a chaser, but when you consider the company he kept during his six starts, it’s little wonder he struggled at times. His final outing of the campaign, for instance, was a cracking effort in splitting the useful pair Saint Palais and Midnight River in a strongly-run event at Uttoxeter and a repeat of something similar is likely to see him easily outrun his morning odds.

THE CHANGING MAN (NAP) (best price 5-4) created an extremely favourable impression when landing a competitive handicap on his seasonal bow and overriding feeling that he came out of that contest very leniently as far as his rating is concerned, Joe Tizzard’s gelding receives a confident vote to back up that theory.

Quite a backward sort, it took him all last season to get off the mark on his final outing at Stratford and on the evidence of his first outing for 211 days, he still appears to be going on an upward trajectory. Well-backed to land a very competitive affair at the Welsh venue, the feature of his performance was how strong he was in the latter stages and when analysing the data from 28 days ago, the numbers reveal he was trapping on at a fair level for a horse of his rating (102). Indeed, the son of Walk In The Park managed to run the final circuit 15 lengths quicker than the novice hurdle won by the highly-regarded Spring Meadow over the same C&D which strongly suggests he’s a good deal better than his current mark.

As far as the form is concerned, it was good to see the fifth-placed horse, Saint Segal, give the race a boost at Chepstow on Friday and with the distinct likelihood of even more to come from this future chasing type, it would be a bitter disappointment of he wasn’t capable of beating a field of today’s nature.

MONBEG PARK (best price 11-4) really caught the eye with the way he shaped on his hurdling debut at Galway recently, so even though he faces another tough opponent today in the shape of Seabank Bistro, he has no reason to suffer from any inferiority complex.

A creditable third in his final start in a bumper here last season, faring best of those who were ridden from well off the pace, Sean Doyle’s gelding embarked on his new vocation at Ballybrit after a 185-day break and, in what turned out to be a well-run race of its kind, he kept on stoutly in the latter stages to keep the strongly-fancied winner, Affordale Fury, honest in the latter stages.

A proper chasing type with a likeable attitude, the son of Walk In The Park proved he is going to be well served by tests beyond 2m4f throughout this campaign and with the benefit of a previous outing likely to count for plenty, he rates a strong choice to play a significant role in today’s contest.

CAPTAIN CONBY (best price 9-2) has yet to prove that he stays three miles, but the one thing that is undeniable is his love for today’s track and that positive might be enough to allow him to excel at his first attempt at the trip.

If it wasn’t for a fall at the second last in a handicap hurdle here last December, the son of Conduit would be 3-3 at the Co Kildare venue, so there’s obviously something about today’s venue he loves. Off the track since falling two out in a Grade 1 at the Aintree Festival, he looked like overcoming a 213-day break until just getting tired in the closing stages, but it was still a decent effort to only just go under to the very useful Eric Bloodaxe.

Likely to be all the better for that initial run, this strong-travelling chestnut is almost certain to still be going as well as anything two out, it’ll just a case of whether he gets home from that point and at the morning odds, he’s worth chancing he does.