2022 Long Walk Hurdle

Ascot stages one of its biggest meetings of the National Hunt season this weekend, the two-day Howden Christmas Meeting, which is headlined by the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle on Saturday at 14.20pm, and it could see a familiar rivalry as last year’s winner Champ is set for another rematch with his old foe Paisley Park. 

The pair provided a grandstand finish to the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury when Nicky Henderson’s former RSA winner narrowly held off the late thrust of Paisley Park by a neck and if both of these star stayers’ intend to bring their best form to this weekend’s feature race, we could be in for another treat at the Berkshire venue. 

Who is the favourite for this year’s Long Walk Hurdle?

After making a remarkable return to the smaller obstacles when winning this race impressively 12 months ago having disappointed when sent off favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup on his previous start, Champ is unsurprisingly installed as the initial favourite at (15/8) to potentially repeat the dose. 

The 10-year-old was involved in one of the races of the season when denying Paisley Park in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury last time on his reappearance in which he extended his impressive record fresh. He made virtually all of the running to hold off the late challenge of Paisley Park and take the lead on the scoresheet between the pair.

Nicky Henderson’s talented charge undeniably hasn’t looked back since reverting back to hurdles after being pulled up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, winning two of his five starts as well as making the frame in his other three outings in this sphere, including 4th in the Stayers’ Hurdle behind Flooring Porter when probably not at his best that day too, where he travelled well as he often does before finding little for pressure.

He was impressive in this race last year, where again, he travelled and jumped really well under a confident Jonjo O’Neill Jr ride before seeing off Thyme Hill to take the spoils with Paisley Park, who was also on a revival mission following a below-par third at Newbury, showcasing his trademark late flourish to finish a never-nearer 3rd behind the front pair. 

He clearly heads into this weekend’s race in fine form and is likely to start favourite following last year’s exploits in the contest. However, does he represent value at his current odds? To some, probably yes, but you have to take into account his only two wins over the last two years were on his reappearance which clearly states he’s best fresh plus he’s been beaten in his other four starts since winning at the Cheltenham Festival over two years ago. 

Based on that latest winning return, he is the rightful favourite of course but I wouldn’t be rushing in to take his current odds for this race again, especially with some interesting opposition expected to be amongst the final declarations. If he turns up in the same form as he did last year, then he’ll probably win but he is hardly bombproof aside from first-time-out and better value might be elsewhere. 

Other high profile runners who have been given an early entry

Paisley will bid to regain his crown

It is great to see that Emma Lavelle has confirmed Paisley Park will bid for an historic third win in the race and is second-favourite at (5/2). A winner of this race in 2018 and 2020, he found Champ five and a quarter-lengths too good in last year's renewal when only 3rd but he arrives into this year’s race in a lot better shape and will strip fitter for his excellent comeback second at Newbury on his reappearance. He is well-suited to Ascot and could get the required strong pace to aim at if some of the early entry front-runners feature in the final field.

Theoretically, the popular and beloved stayer will have needed the run more than Champ at Newbury so his performance can be markedly upgraded and we cannot forget his renaissance in the Cleeve Hurdle earlier this year at Cheltenham, where he did remarkably well to recover from a really sluggish start to stay on strongly and beat Champ, who was beaten fair and square on the day. There really isn’t much to separate between himself and Champ, so he must have every chance of gaining revenge if able to take a step forward from his reappearance. 

Miranda set to step up in class

It is reported that Paul Nicholls will test the water with Miranda, who’s available at (9/2), and takes a step up in grade following a decisive victory in a Listed Mares Hurdle last month on her first attempt at three-miles. The seven-year-old seemingly relished the longer distance and Paul was clearly impressed with the way she went about her business, hence why the champion trainer has opted to go for this much deeper race. 

This mare, however, would need to improve considerably on the figures to trouble the front pair in the betting as she’s rated 14 pounds and upwards lower than those two. In addition, she would be receiving seven-pounds from both given her allowance but she doesn’t strike me as a Long Walk Hurdle winner. I could be wrong but her odds are a little bit slim based on what she’s actually achieved and she would need another personal best and more to land this Grade 1 contest on her top-tier debut. 

Goshen a surprise entry for the Moores

Gary Moore could be doubly-represented in the race with both Goshen (8/1) and Botox Has (12/1). The former’s chasing campaign didn’t get off to a good start when only 3rd to Gowel Road but he bounced back to score over hurdles here last time and would be a fascinating runner if connections do risk stepping him up in distance.

He’d be a popular choice for punters if declared but his participation hasn’t been confirmed and to win this on his first start over three-miles would be some achievement. Logical thinking-wise, that seems too good to be true but again, write him off at your peril. His stablemate Botox Has impressed at Haydock last time and could be the surprise package in the race. Possible Irish challenger Queens Brook and Not So Sleepy completes the seven remaining entries.

Where is the each-way value?

Ultimately, this race is likely to be fought out between Champ and Paisley Park, who have the best form in the book over this distance, have both won this race before and both arrive into the race in great form following a solid one-two at Newbury in the Long Distance. However, I wouldn’t rule out Hughie Morrison’s NOT SO SLEEPY (20/1) to possibly sneak into the frame at large odds if allowed to take his chance despite the each-way terms being limited to two places now. 

He would have to prove his stamina over this longer distance as he would be entering unknown territory trip-wise but what he does have in his inventory is valuable course form plus he’s yet to taste defeat over hurdles here with a perfect three-from-three record. He ran a good race to finish 3rd to Constitution Hill in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle last time and the way he kept on nicely in the closing stages suggested a longer trip could be worth an experiment. He could be the value angle.